The Upside Conundrum: Is Athleticism Overemphasized in NBA Prospects?

Mandatory Credit: Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports

I’ve been thinking a lot about D’Angelo Russell and Emmanuel Mudiay lately. With the disclosure that I’m a Sixers fan enthusiastically tracking lottery-level talent, I think there’s also an important conversation to be had about their upside entering the NBA Draft.

My colleagues on this site have done a great job chronicling pros and cons for both players — Rafael’s Mudiay report and Chris’ evaluation of Russell’s final game come to mind — but in other corners of the internet they’re separated in two distinct factions. Russell is the known quantity, the guy whose skill set you feel you know in and out, ready to step in and help out your team from the jump. Standing opposite D’Angelo is the “upside” pick, Mudiay, celebrated for his physical tools and seen as more of a mystery after a year in China. To an extent, these generalizations are true. Knowing what we do at this moment, no one would dispute Mudiay is the superior athlete or the ease of evaluating Russell vs. combing through CBA footage.

The major issue I see is central to this situation and prospect scouting in general: what constitutes upside, and why is it often so closely tied to athleticism?

It makes sense on a basic level to lump them together. The NBA is home to the best basketball players on the planet, where a certain threshold of athleticism is required to to run with the big boys.But it’s probably time to reevaluate how much pure athleticism is considered in “upside”, a blanket term that often misrepresents what tools a player has at his disposal.

Consider a few of Russell’s traits at this stage. Russell’s passing was a Vine sensation this year…

…but he was also a lights out three-point shooter. He knocked down 41 percent of his threes on 6.6 attempts per game, despite some issues with shot selection typical of a freshman guard. Pairing slick passing with 40+ percent three-point shooting is a massive weapon at the pro level, particularly as the value of floor space rises leaguewide.

Consider that package, then remember that he excelled playing both on and off the ball at Ohio State. Many young guards enter the league with questions surrounding their knack for playing without the ball in their hands. It’s often a hurdle talented prospects are facing for the first time; Russell clearing it once already is a tangible positive that should excite lottery teams. Fluid fit on the defensive end is a big part of why Karl-Anthony Towns is viewed as the draft’s No. 1 upside candidate — shouldn’t Russell get at least some of the same credit for offensive malleability?

This is not to say Mudiay can be pigeonholed. He has a rock solid frame at 6-5, 200 and showed flashes of talent against men better prepared to stop him than many Russell opponents. His decision-making is suspect at times, but Mudiay showed instincts of both a scorer and a floor general, lending credence to the idea that he can eventually be trusted to shepherd an NBA offense.

But when talk of Mudiay’s theoretical upside happens, it usually begins and hovers near his athleticism. Granted, his burst is evident and will serve him well in the halfcourt and transition. What I don’t see is a Russell Westbrook-level freak, or a speed demon like John Wall; I tend to side with Rafael’s recent comparison and see a lot of Tyreke Evans in Mudiay.

That’s nothing to be dismissive of, and Russell’s own athleticism questions will factor into how effective he is at scoring around the basket against better competition. But piecing together a more complete version of “upside” is a goal the scouting community should be striving for. In this draft in particular, teams will be making coin-flip decisions choosing between players at the same position.

The jockeying of Towns and Jahlil Okafor is another interesting case study. Towns’ rim protection, versatility and burgeoning post game is tantalizing, and his athleticism outstrips Okafor’s. At the same time, we’ve seen very few big men with post games as advanced as Okafor’s at age 19, who bends defenses with his footwork and passing from the paint. There is a chance he could be the reverse Kyle Korver, a black hole who sucks defenders to the middle leaving acres of perimeter space. If he can continue building an already dominant offensive profile and make baby steps on defense, that might represent the most upside in the ’15 class.

There’s no reason to throw out athleticism as a decision-making tool and go all in on players whose skills are more clearly defined. Success and horror lives on both sides. For every Stephen Curry that enters the league with a dominant skill, there’s a Kawhi Leonard with tools and versatility that puts the full package together. For every Evan Turner who struggled off the ball and was not equipped for a starring role, there’s a Tim Thomas who never quite got to the ever-looming ceiling. No perfect formula exists for what to value in an NBA prospect, and even the best evaluators whiff on selections. But let’s stop equating athleticism with upside — the former is just a small part of what makes up the latter.