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What can we expect from Kris Bryant and Carlos Rodon in 2015?

By Stanford Crissey

Apr 17, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs infielder Kris Bryant at bat against the San Diego Padres during the seventh inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 17, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs infielder Kris Bryant at bat against the San Diego Padres during the seventh inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports /
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Expectations are high, but what can we actually expect from Kris Bryant and Carlos Rodon this year?

Chicago is exploding with young baseball talent, as Kris Bryant and Carlos Rodon have both been called up to the big league clubs this week.

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There are a lot of similarities between the two: both play for Chicago teams, both were recent high draft picks (Bryant was selected second overall in 2013 while Rodon was 2014’s third pick), both were dominant college players, and both are represented by baseball’s uberagent, Scott Boras.

The Chicago Cubs called up Bryant Friday, after his defense miraculously improved after 12 days in the minors; he replaces Luis Valbuena as the team’s third baseman. To say that expectations are high for Bryant would be a complete understatement; people seem to be expecting some combination of Manny Ramirez, Mike Trout, and Babe Ruth to be manning third base for the Cubs from now on.

Expectations are more tempered for Rodon–for now. Chicago White Sox fans still expect a future ace in their most recent first round pick.

But what can we actually expect from these players this year? Let’s take a look at some comparable players, to figure out what kind of seasons these two highly regarded prospects can have.

Kris Bryant

It’s tough to compare Bryant to past prospects; few prospects in any year garner as much hype as Chicago’s power-hitting third baseman, who figures prominently in the team’s efforts to break the 100-plus year World Series drought. But the best comparisons would seem to be top-five picks who were college players and reached the majors quickly. We’ll also limit the list to power hitters; Bryant isn’t going to be a slap-hitting leadoff hitter, after all.

Here are the ten most comparable, and how they fared in their rookie seasons:

Name Year Plate App. AVG/OBP/SLG Home runs WAR
Bryce Harper 2012 597 .270/.340/.477 22 4.6
Pedro Alvarez 2010 386 .256/.326/.461 16 1.6
Eric Hosmer 2011 563 .293/.334/.465 19 1.0
Buster Posey 2010 443 .305/.357/.505 18 4.0
Matt Wieters 2009 385 .288/.340/.412 9 1.2
Evan Longoria 2008 508 .272/.343/.531 27 5.6
Justin Upton 2008 417 .250/.353/.463 15 1.8
Alex Gordon 2007 601 .247/.314/.411 15 2.2
Ryan Braun 2007 492 .324/.370/.634 34 2.5
Ryan Zimmerman 2006 682 .287/.351/.471 20 3.8

From these examples, we can see a couple of possibilities for Bryant. The first is that he’s Bryce Harper or Evan Longoria, and arrives as a fully-fledged All-Star player and wins Rookie of the Year.

It’s also possible that he follows the Ryan Braun route of great offense paired with terrible defense. Or he could have an underwhelming season like Pedro Alvarez or Eric Hosmer. Exciting as Bryant is, remember that these players held similar status as rookies, and not all of them delivered on it right away.

Carlos Rodon

Rodon, meanwhile, is slated to start his White Sox career as a reliever, just like Chris Sale before him. It’s a good way of getting the team’s top prospect acclimated to the majors without asking too much of him, but it does make it harder to predict his success. The most comparable players would be Sale and Adam Wainwright, both of whom started their careers as relievers before eventually becoming ace starters.

The best guess for Rodon is probably an up-and-down season of relief, and if the Sox are lucky, he’ll show enough flashes of dominance to earn a rotation spot for next year, or maybe even for the stretch run (if they’re really lucky).

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