Is Cliff Alexander a good late-first round prospect?

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Cliff Alexander had an interesting set of circumstances leading up to his declaration for the NBA draft, to say the least.

An absolute beast in high school, Alexander was projected to go in the top five by many going into his freshman season at Kansas. Nagging injuries, lack of consistent playing time, and an NCAA suspension (for what reportedly seemed to not be his fault) severely hindered Alexander, and make it difficult to not view his collegiate career as an unfortunate tale. However, we did learn a lot about his game during his time at Kansas, and while he probably isn’t the prospect many hoped he would be, there’s a good chance he sticks around in the NBA for a long time.

Related: Would Cliff Alexander have benefited from another year at Kansas?

To determine which teams make sense for Alexander, it’s important to first describe his skill-set. In the NBA, he’ll likely be a bruiser. At 6-9, 250 pounds., Alexander had good numbers per 40 minutes (16.2 points, 12.0 rebounds, 59.8 True Shooting Percentage). He’s not particularly blessed with low post finesse, though if he gets deep position he can finish well enough. His stand-still jumper won’t ever be elite, but appeared to be decent enough to work with as a small part of his offensive game.

Because of all this, Alexander’s tenure at Kansas led me to believe that he likely will find his career as an undersized five off the bench. I’m going to be honest: I can’t tell if he’s going to be good. What I am comfortable in projecting is that he will be able to rebound effectively and battle inside physically against NBA big men. Something that he might struggle with is a situation in which he is forced to guard against quickness off the dribble and defending pick and rolls. The tools are there to eventually learn those skills, but in college they clearly were weaknesses in his game. Something that is a positive is that for being his height, Alexander was a decent rim protector, averaging 3.0 blocks per 40 minutes.

Alexander is currently projected to go 28th overall by Draft Express. Teams that might be the most intrigued in taking a flyer on him in his projected range are either straight up bad teams (Lakers, Timberwolves, Knicks, 76ers) that are desperate for talent or contenders that can have him play behind veterans and develop (Spurs, Grizzlies, Warriors).

As big of a Jayhawk fan as I am, and as much as I lobbied for Alexander to get a significant increase in playing time at Kansas, he’s not a prospect that intrigues me in the range he’s projected to go if I were a general manager. This pains me to say, but I just don’t think the upside is there. He could be a decent bench big for a long time, but there’s simply no guarantee after his freshman season at Kansas.

A team that I do find intriguing for him, however, is the Cleveland Cavaliers at around the 24th pick. The Cavaliers could use another rebounder off the bench long-term, though they could look to acquire that need in free agency rather than drafting a raw 19 year old.

Needless to say, I’ll be rooting hard for Cliff Alexander to find lots of success in the NBA; he was a great college player, and his tenure at Kansas was frustrating for reasons that mostly weren’t his fault. Sadly, I’m just not sure that his upside is high enough to be that intriguing of a prospect anymore.