2015 NFL Draft: Todd Gurley Is Not Trent Richardson

Sep 27, 2014; Athens, GA, USA; Georgia Bulldogs running back Todd Gurley (3) runs the ball against the Tennessee Volunteers during the first half at Sanford Stadium. Georgia defeated Tennessee 35-32. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

I was hanging out with one of my friends the other day and we were discussing the college prospects and the NFL Draft, and we got on the subject of Todd Gurley and his player value in rookie drafts. My friend was very skeptical due to Trent Richardson’s history of being drafted as the 3^rd overall pick in the 2012 Draft and becoming a bust. I thought the skepticism was unwarranted, because these are two totally different prospects that have totally different skill sets. The perception of Richardson coming out of college was that he was a can’t miss prospect, and we are hearing the same thing about Gurley about being a can’t miss prospect. The difference from Richardson and Gurley is that Gurley is a generational talent, which means he’s a player that comes around once a decade. What made me deep dive the statistics of the two prospects was that my friend made me think. If he was comparing Richardson and Gurley as if they were similar, then there are a lot of other people out there comparing the two prospects in the same fashion.

Hopefully by deep diving the statistics of the two prospects I can show the skeptics of Todd Gurley why he is considered a generational talent, and show them a difference from a can’t miss prospect to a generational talent.

College Statistics

Both players were very productive in college. The big difference between the two players was that Todd Gurley was an impact player right out of the gate as a freshman. While at the University of Alabama, Trent Richardson wasn’t the lead back for the Crimson Tide until he was junior. The reason being for Richardson not getting a large market share of the workload until his junior season was that he was behind a talented running back in Mark Ingram. If Trent Richardson was a generational talent (like Gurley) he would have beaten out Ingram for the starting role, or at least claimed 50% of the work load. Richardson couldn’t beat out Ingram as a sophomore, and he had to wait until his junior season to stake claim as the full-time starter.

Break Out Age

*First season with at least 20% of team’s total yardage. (Market Share Production)

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As we see here, Trent Richardson didn’t break out until age 21, where Todd Gurley broke at age 18. There’s a big difference from a prospect breaking out at 18 compared to 21. Breaking out at the age of 21 is about average. If you take most of the running back prospects that are coming out of college on average most of them break out at 20-21 years old. Gurley broke out at the age of 18, which is important because he had to beat out running backs that are older and more established with the team. At the age of 18 he was dominating against college talent who was older and more experienced than he was. As a freshman Gurley was still learning the speed of the college game on the fly, and he was dominating while he was doing it.

Market Share Production

*The % of total yardage/TDs by the player compared to the player’s team total yardage/TDs

Gurley’s market share production was more consistent over the course of his career compared to Richardson’s. Richardson’s production is very good, but it is not what you would expect for a generational talent. Richardson only had 15.54% as a freshman compared to Gurley’s 22.97% as a freshman, that’s a 7.43% variance. Richardson had a phenomenal share of the touchdowns during his junior season, but that season skewed his career average and his TD production wasn’t consistent during his college career. Like I have been iterating the entire article, Gurley was more productive at a younger age and the market share percentages are a good demonstration of that.

College Injuries

Gurley is 6’1 222LBS and can weigh in the 230’s when he is healthy. Trent Richardson is 5’9 228LBS, compared to Gurley he is shorter and more compact. Being more compact a player is generally less likely to obtain injuries, but that’s not the case with Richardson as he played through injuries throughout his entire career in college. Gurley as well has injury issues, he had an ACL injury during his junior season, and a sprained ankle during his sophomore season. Gurley did well during the medical re-checks and a lot of NFL teams are confident that his knee is going to make a full recovery.

Film Review

The big difference between these two running backs is speed. Gurley has the elite speed to bust out a long gain for a touchdown, where Trent Richardson doesn’t have that 2^nd gear. Gurley has the quickness and explosiveness that sets him apart from Richardson. Both backs are great at catching the ball out of the backfield, the difference between the two here is that Gurley is going to eat up a lot more yards in the open field compared to Richardson. Richardson is a big physical back. Richardson coming out of college was an “elite-plodder”. Meaning he’s a big back and is very good at using his size to get extra yardage and using his leverage to move the pile. Gurley is a physical as well, but he doesn’t rely on it as much, because he has his speed and quickness to fall back on.

Like I’ve said in this article and previous articles, Todd Gurley is a generational talent. He is special. He is more than worth a top pick in your rookie drafts. The only way Gurley could be a bust for your dynasty team is if he re-injured his knee. He is not going to be a bust for your team, because his talent couldn’t translate to the NFL. He showed that he can handle the transition from high school to college without any difficulties, and he’s going to be able to handle the transition from college to the NFL without any difficulties. Todd Gurley is not Trent Richardson, and he’s not going to be the next high drafted running back that under performs. Please draft Gurley with confidence.

For more information on Todd Gurley please check out my player evaluation article on him.

Dynasty League Rookie Prospect: Todd Gurley

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