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How many of the highest paid MLB players are worth the money?

By Stanford Crissey

May 3, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; New York Yankees designated hitter Alex Rodriguez (13) prior to a game against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
May 3, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; New York Yankees designated hitter Alex Rodriguez (13) prior to a game against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports /
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How many of MLB’s best-paid players are earning their money?

It’s a common refrain that baseball players, and all athletes are overpaid. Fans love to boo players who aren’t playing up to the level of their paycheck, and, curiously, players who leave town for more money. Basically, if you’re signing a $200 million contract you had better be worth every penny.

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But how many players on these mammoth contracts actually are worth the money? We’ve heard all about the overpaid Ryan Howard and what a terrible mistake the Phillies made by extending him, but nobody mentions David Wright, who has just quietly been going along, earning every penny of his contract.

So which MLB players are earning their big paydays? And if they’re not, how much do they need to do to become worth it over the long haul?

(Warning: this article uses a lot of the stat WAR, which stands for Wins Above Replacement. If you’re unfamiliar with WAR, here’s a link. WAR’s not a perfect stat, but it’s the closest we have to accurately measuring player value, so that’s what we’ll be using here. If you’re allergic to math, this isn’t the article for you. Stats are from FanGraphs, and contract information is via Cot’s Baseball Contracts).

Take Joe Mauer as an example. Mauer was signed to an eight year, $184 million contract beginning in the 2011 season, with the Twins hoping that the hometown hero and MVP catcher would serve as the face of the franchise for years to come as they moved into their new stadium, on the heels of a successful decade. They didn’t prepare for Mauer’s body breaking down, being moved from catcher to first base, where he is far less valuable as a hitter. Mauer was an exceptional hitting catcher, but his skill set isn’t out of the ordinary at a power-hitting position like first base.

A recent article measured the worth of one win in free agency as being $7 million. With that being the case, the Twins would need 26 WAR out of Mauer over the life of the contract. So far Mauer has compiled 12.9 WAR, most of which is from 2011 and ’12, when he was still a catcher. That means the Twins will need an average of 4.3 WAR per season from here on out. Basically, they need him to be 2014 Christian Yelich, but he’s currently performing like 2014 Khris Davis.

Let’s look at the poster boy of huge contracts, Alex Rodriguez. After his first big contract, A-Rod signed an even bigger contract with the Yankees, worth $275 million over ten years, up to his age-42 season. First of all, who guarantees a 42-year-old baseball player $30 million? How could they possibly think he would be worth it? Here’s a list of players who have been worth that money, or anything close to it, at age 42:

The list is blank. Score one for Scott Boras.

Anyway, Rodriguez has compiled 20.8 WAR so far, but he needs 39.2 for the contract to be worth it. That means the Yankees need A-Rod to perform at a level that would have made him the tenth-best player in baseball last year at age 39, 40, and 41. Sounds unlikely.

In his first huge contract, however, A-Rod blew the projections out of the water, compiling 56.1 WAR while needing only 25 to be worth it. On a related note, the contract ran from ages 25-32. The lesson: don’t lock up declining sluggers. Sign mammoth contracts for guys in their prime only. (In other words, the Angels’ recent Mike Trout extension should be worth it. The Miguel Cabrera contract? Not so much.)

It applies to shorter contracts with high average annual values as well. The Phillies got their money’s worth from the Cliff Lee deal, as Lee exceeded the 17.8 WAR he needed even without playing at all in 2015. On the other hand, Ryan Howard’s five-year $125 million deal has netted them -0.8 WAR. Whoops.

The list goes on and on: some players (like Felix Hernandez) are more than earning their money, while others (like Prince Fielder) have a lot of work to do if they want to be worth it to their team.

There are a couple of things we can tell from this exercise. The first is that teams need to shy away from paying big bucks for a player in decline. A contract that locks up a player’s prime years, like A-Rod’s Rangers deal, can be worth it, but if you’re signing a player through his age-42 season, don’t expect to get your money’s worth. These deals can be worth it, but only for the right player.

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