Predicting 10 best NFL quarterbacks in 2016

Trying to figure out which quarterbacks will be the best in any given year is a tough nut to crack. Trying to figure it out two years out is even harder. The thing is, when it comes right down to it, many of the same faces will appear on this list whether it’s for this year or the next. Or the one after that. Or the one after that.

The top quarterbacks are the top quarterbacks, barring retirement or injury, and that won’t change. The intriguing part—to me—of a list like this is the end of it. Who are the guys at the bottom of the list who will be ascendant?

That’s also the part of the list most likely fraught with peril—the part of the list which is most likely to get called out three years from now in the comments of another article. Again though, it’s the most interesting piece of it.

Here are a few broad notes before we kick things off.

First, I think Peyton Manning retires before next year. I could very much be wrong here, but the Denver Broncos are trying to plan for life without Manning. He looked very tired towards the end of last season and the fact that he thought long and hard about retirement tells me he’s about done. Maybe he hangs on another year, but my guess is he’s done right afterwards.

Secondly, so much can change in an offseason that this list could be null and void by March of 2016. A big trade, a massive injury, a huge free agency signing—all could make any one (or several) of this group irrelevant.

Finally, this isn’t just about yardage and production, but effectiveness as well. A guy can put up massive yards and still not be a fantastic quarterback. And a guy could put up less yards but make what he does count more.

So keep those things in mind.

Also, there are a few guys who just missed this list.

Derek Carr and Blake Bortles were close, but I’m not sure if Carr will have enough pieces around him. Ditto with Bortles, though Julius Thomas could help. I think both players could be close but not quite there next season.

I also thought about Andy Dalton, but to me he’s always on the fringe. Close but not the top ten. He’s got the weapons, but he can be a little inconsistent.

I really like Cam Newton, but I just don’t know if I see the offensive line improving enough to give him the time he needs.

I like Russell Wilson, but while he is an effective quarterback, I think quite often the offense is built around his limitations more than to his strengths. That may change over the next few years, and with Jimmy Graham now in place, this offense could look much different by the end of the season.

Guys like Jay Cutler and Matt Stafford were also close, but just barely edged out—well, Stafford was barely edged out, while I suspect Cutler is about to nosedive in production over the next few years. He may also not be with the Chicago Bears, in which case it’s nearly impossible to predict his numbers. Stafford was number 11 on this list

So those are guys who just missed.

Let’s see who I think will make it.

Next: Teddy Bridgewater