Just because it’s the most recently set record on our list doesn’t mean it’s a breakable one.
When Mariano Rivera retired in 2013 he did so with a record 652 saves, which is 51 more than second place Trevor Hoffman and a full 174 ahead of No. 3 Lee Smith. In fact, only two other pitchers (John Franco and Billy Wagner) have yet to notch more than 400 saves in a career.
Yes, the closer’s role is quite new by baseball standards, and it has changed since Lee Smith and John Franco were pitching. Roughly 99 times out of 100, closers no longer go more than one inning. And because complete games are an endangered species, closers are used now more than ever.
However, the active leader in saves is Joe Nathan with 377. Nathan, who is 40 years old, is also on the 60-day disabled list and out for the rest of 2015 because of his second career Tommy John surgery, so he’s no threat to Rivera’s record. Francisco Rodriguez (356), Jonathan Papelbon (335) and Huston Street (287) also have a lot of work to do if they want to challenge Mo.
The closer with the most realistic shot to break the record is Craig Kimbrel, who has 196 saves in only six seasons. At age 27, Kimbrel will need to average 28.5 saves per season until the age of 43 (when Rivera retired) to break the record. While it seems doable, with injuries, control issues, loss of velocity and/or overall loss of effectiveness seemingly around every corner (not to mention the volatile nature of closers), it’s going to take a legendary streak of stability.
You know, like Mariano Rivera had from 1997 to 2013. In other words, don’t count on it.
Next: 2 Grand Slams in One Inning