Fantasy Football: Nelson Agholor Tape Analysis

Nelson Agholor (104-1,313-12 for USC in 2014) wasn’t the most talked about rookie wide receiver before the draft. That all changed, however, when he was drafted to one of the most consistently prolific offenses of the past few seasons, the Philadelphia Eagles. When Jeremy Maclin (85-1,318-10) left, a huge amount of targets (he was targeted 143 times in 2014) freed up, and Agholor is projected to fall into the Maclin role of the offense. Chip Kelly has specifically said that he sees Jordan Matthews as the premiere inside receiver, meaning Agholor will be getting plenty of deep opportunities. But can he capiltalize on this great situation? Below are some important findings I gathered by watching tape from five of Agholor’s games last year. Thanks to Draft Breakdown for the educational resources used in this analysis.

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Agholor has all of the fundamentals that you’re looking for when you take a shot at a rookie wide receiver in fantasy. He has good hands, can run routes, and has impressive acceleration. He catches nearly everything that comes his way. His tape does show a few instances where he drops passes from losing concentration, including one especially bad one against Stanford. However, these are few compared to the amount of impressive catches he made. Another positive is that he is fearless when going for a catch. You won’t see him hitting the ball down while running an in-route.

Dec 27, 2014; San Diego, CA, USA; USC Trojans wide receiver Nelson Agholor (15) catches a pass before the game against the Nebraska Cornhuskers in the 2014 Holiday Bowl at Qualcomm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

While he was usually out wide, USC lined him up all over the field, including in the slot and in the backfield. Nelson Agholor’s burst of acceleration allowed him to gain far more yards than he should have, like one play against Arizona State where he caught the ball behind the line on a broken play and took it from a 5 yard loss to a 16 yard gain. Catches like that can make a huge difference in your fantasy matchup in both DFS and head-to-head formats.

Agholor also showed in his tape that he has an ability to take advantage of his opponent’s mistakes. When a cornerback crashed in or a safety didn’t jump to his side fast enough, Nelson Agholor got in perfect position to be wide open and break for a huge play. Sam Bradford and even Mark Sanchez should be able to capitalize on these opportunities. Kelly’s offense focuses on a strong running game which opens up downfield passes. Nelson Agholor seems to be the perfect match for that system.

One skill of Agholor’s that could indirectly boost his fantasy numbers is his ability (and more importantly, willingness) to block. Whether on run plays or when a fellow receiver catches it, you can see Nelson Agholor looking for someone upfield to block, and he does it proficiently. He is not scared of being hit or hitting someone else. This will give the Eagles immediate reason to put him on the field. More snaps means more opportunities which means more potential fantasy points. Young wide receivers especially can struggle to get snaps when they aren’t efficient route runners or blockers, or when their depth chart is stacked. Agholor has none of these strikes against him.

Nelson Agholor’s current ADP across platforms ranks him as the 41st wide receiver off the board. There are a number of players ahead of him that I would pass up for Agholor, including Victor Cruz, Brandon LaFell, Larry Fitzgerald, and DaVante Parker. Agholor’s draft stock could rise precipitously if he gets great reviews in August, but his value as a certain low-end WR2 with WR1 upside can’t be overlooked.

Next: Dynasty League WR Rankings

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