Jan 25, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Team Irvin running back C.J. Anderson of the Denver Broncos (22) runs the ball against Team Carter in the 2015 Pro Bowl at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Here we go again.
Draft season is right around the corner, and a relatively unproven Denver Broncos running back is projected to go in the first couple rounds. Sound familiar?
C.J. Anderson is the latest in the saga of Broncos starting running backs since Peyton Manning came to town. After taking the reins of the Denver backfield in week 10, Anderson was as good as any back in the league, averaging nearly 20 fantasy points per game. His broken tackle rate was also among the league leaders, showing he wasn’t just a product of the offense.
So why is he only projected to go in the first couple rounds? Why not the first couple picks? Take a closer look at what Justin Forsett did last year, and you’ll realize why he should.
Forsett and Anderson both played their college ball at the University of California, Berkeley. At just 5-8, neither back looks the part of a workhorse, with Anderson looking more like Lil’ Sebastian from Parks and Recreation than the majestic Bronco on his helmet, but keep mind that Forsett played all 16 games last season and finished as a top-10 fantasy back, proving that a full seasons’ worth of production is possible at that size.
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So that’s all you’ve got, Max? Anderson will have an elite season because another short guy out of Cal-Berkeley did?
Nay (pun intended), there’s more.
Whose offense did Forsett have his career year in last season? Gary Kubiak’s. And whom did the Broncos hire as their new head coach?
Now you’re catching on.
Next: Kubiak's Zone-Blocking Scheme
Jan 10, 2015; Foxborough, MA, USA; Baltimore Ravens running back Justin Forsett (29) celebrates with teammates after scoring a touchdown against the New England Patriots in the third quarter during the 2014 AFC Divisional playoff football game at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports
Kubiak is bringing his zone-blocking scheme back to Denver, the place he first learned it under the tutelage of Mike Shanahan, meaning Anderson will be running in the same offense that Forsett gashed defenses in last season.
After naming Anderson the starter going into camp, and stating that the team is “going to the run the ball”, Kubiak’s rhetoric suggests that the work is going to be there for Anderson, which makes sense given the success Kubiak’s offenses have had in the rushing department. In his coaching career, eight different Kubiak running backs have reached the century mark at least once, and in the last 15 seasons, Kubiak’s offenses have produced a 1,000-yard rusher 10 times.
According to ESPN’s Jeff Legwood, Anderson has talked extensively with Forsett about what he can expect from Kubiak’s offense, but what fantasy players want to know is, what can we expect from Anderson? Let’s take a look at Forsett to figure that out.
Mandatory Credit: NFL Game Rewind
Kubiak’s offense is predicated on the zone run. In this scheme, each offensive lineman blocks a zone, rather than a particular defender, to open up a hole for the back to cut through. The running back runs laterally with the flow of the offensive line until he spots the hole, then plants his foot and gets up field. What you’ll see Forsett do that is so unique to his and Anderson’s skill sets is use his quickness and low center of gravity to change direction.
Mandatory Credit: NFL Game Rewind
As you can see, Forsett’s initial hole he cuts to is filled by linebacker Luke Kuechly (59), but he is able to quickly change direction and cut back into the second level of the defense. Once at the second level, he again uses his quickness to shake the pursuing defensive backs and break free for a long gain.
Next: Denver's New Zone-Blocking Scheme
Denver was kind enough to give a sneak peak at how similar Anderson’s execution of a zone run is; however, unlike Baltimore, Denver did not use a fullback, a key personnel change Kubiak will bring over after reuniting with James Casey, who played fullback for Kubiak in Houston.
Mandatory Credit: NFL Game Rewind
In this formation, Denver has all of their blockers on the line, as opposed to one in the backfield like Baltimore, as back-up right tackle Paul Cornick (71) is lined up as an extra tight end. Despite the slight difference in formation, the principles remain the same, and not surprisingly, as does the result.
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Mandatory Credit: NFL Game Rewind
Like Forsett, Anderson begins by following the flow of the offensive line to the boundary, and cuts once he sees daylight. Again, the defense closes in on the first hole, so Anderson swiftly cuts back and works vertically up the field, and once he reaches the second level, he hits the safety with a Forsett-like cut to beat him to the outside.
Kubiak wouldn’t have named Anderson the starter so soon if he didn’t see something special in him. Maybe he saw Forsett, maybe he saw something better, who knows? What I do know is what Anderson owners will see a whole lot of this season.
Wins.