Fantasy Football: Breshad Perriman Tape Analysis

Breshad Perriman, former University of Central Florida wide receiver, has very high expectations to live up to. The Baltimore Ravens selected him with their first round pick and it’s well-established that he was picked to fill in for the departed Torrey Smith. Perriman’s measurables stack up favorably to Smith’s, as they both had similar 40-times, height, and weight coming out of college. Clearly he exhibits promise from his measurables and potential, but a look at Perriman’s game tape and college stats shows some red flags that make me very hesitant to get him in the early rounds of a rookie draft and at all in re-draft leagues.

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The first thing that makes me cautious about his ability to produce for fantasy is his 2014 production. In 2014, Breshad Perriman ended the season tied for 27^th in receiving yards, 26^th in receiving touchdowns, and wasn’t even close to top 100 in total receptions. The fact that he managed so much production from so few opportunities proves his ability to be the burner that the Ravens are looking for, but he won’t be playing against terrible college cornerbacks next year. He’ll actually be facing many of the great cornerbacks, including Joe Haden twice.

It’s important to give the caveat that he didn’t have that great of a quarterback and a lot of UCF’s offensive production came from their running backs. But I’d still expect more production from someone who’s expected to become a first year starter in the NFL. Joe Flacco isn’t exactly the best quarterback in the game either.

Nov 22, 2014; Orlando, FL, USA; UCF Knights wide receiver Breshad Perriman (11) catches an 18-yard touchdown pass against the Southern Methodist Mustangs in the first half at Bright House Networks Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Manning-USA TODAY Sports

Now to the tape. Against ECU, arguably one of his best games, most of his catches came when he was wide open, and I wouldn’t necessarily credit him with gaining separation as much as the cornerbacks did a poor job at covering. But most concerning was his dropped passes. The most egregious was at 2:45 in the 3^rd quarter. It was 3^rd and 9 and he makes a nice move to get some open space in front of him, but he drops a perfectly placed ball while running down the sideline. At the end of this game came one of his top highlights. With no time on the clock, Breshad Perriman got behind leaping corners on a Hail Mary and easily caught the game-winning touchdown while backpedaling. The positive of this play is that he showed an ability to read where the ball was going and catch it with players around him. But are you really going to tie your fantasy team to a Hail Mary catcher?

His tape against BYU and NC State showed more of the same. Breshad Perriman made some great catches and showed an ability to take advantage when he got space. But he still made many mistakes and has plenty of dropped passes, including one pass that bounced off his hands right into a waiting defensive back’s hands. This kind of mistake will get him benched in the pros. In all three games, he also never showed any prowess with running after the catch. This isn’t completely his fault though, as most of the times he caught the ball behind him or while falling to the ground. It’s really hard to fully gauge how successful he will be with YAC when the offense never afforded him the opportunity, and he dropped balls on chances to do so.

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Breshad Perriman definitely has potential, and Ozzie Newsome is one of the best GMs in the league, so maybe he turns out better than I think. But after watching his tape and going over his stats, I can’t imagine myself drafting him at all in my drafts. Currently, he’s being drafted as the 46^th wide receiver. While he has some upside, I still wouldn’t want him there. And considering the usual hype that rookies receive, I could imagine some positive training camp reviews will bump him up way too high for my liking. Even if he mimics Torrey Smith, that inconsistency isn’t worth being on a weekly league. At best, he’s a worthy candidate for DFS players during weeks with strong matchups.

Next: Fantasy Football: Nelson Agholor Tape Analysis

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