The Top Three HR/FB Rates
May 22, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates left fielder Starling Marte (6) hits a sacrifice fly against the New York Mets during the sixth inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
In 2014, Jose Abreu led Major League Baseball with a 26.9% home run to fly ball ratio, and it resulted in 36 homers. Starling Marte is currently leading the way in the category with an obscene 38.5% rate that will surely drop. Going into Sunday, Marte has hit only 26 fly balls and 10 of them have left the yard.
Marte’s career FB% of 26.7% and HR/FB% of 15.7% are quite confounding because his 2015 FB% rate is way down at 19.8%, but he is hitting homers way more than ever before. Fly ball frequency does not necessarily affect a batter’s HR/FB rate, but it is pretty crazy that Marte has a batted ball profile that lends itself to a higher BABIP and less power.
Starling Marte’s bizarre results are paired with a career-high 2.81 GB/FB rate and a career best LD%, but his BABIP is only .320, which is well below his career .358 mark. However, it is important to note that his 10 homers do not affect his BABIP.
According to www.baseballheatmaps.com, Starling Marte has the eighth best home run and fly ball distance in 2015. Could Marte be developing more power? It may look that way, but I can all but guarantee that his home run pace will slow down if he maintains his fly ball rate just below 20%. Even if his HR/FB rate strongly declines, Starling Marte is still a strong candidate for a 20-30 HR-SB season.
Do you know who leads the league in batted ball on homers and flies? It is not a trick question. The answer is Bryce Harper. He is also currently second in MLB among qualified hitters with a 36.7% HR/FB rate. (Remember that Abreu’s 26.9% rate led the Majors in 2014). While Harper’s current home run pace is sure to slow down, he is likely the favorite to lead the league in HR/FB%.
I would not even be remotely surprised if Harper posted a 25% to 30% HR/FB rate for the rest of the season. His legendary power is making the people who said Harper was overhyped look absolutely foolish. It was laughable to call anyone a bust or disappointment at his age. Harper is going to be one of the best players in both real and fantasy baseball for a long, long time.
The third and final player in this article has one of the most interesting profiles in the 2015 season. I thought Marte’s numbers were interesting, but Steven Souza has absolutely fascinating stats. He is either among the league’s best or worst in quite a number of categories. He is a statistical extremist.
As a fantasy baseball player, Steven Souza is a very good option, especially if you do not play in batting average leagues. He hit his 10th homer today, but the following stats do not include today’s production. Souza is a great power-speed combo, but he honestly looks lost up there sometimes. Souza has a brutal 37.4% strikeout rate and a .226 batting average.
Steven Souza’s strikeout rate is the worst in baseball, but his 12.8% swinging strike rate is not quite as bad and his 12.3% walk rate gives him a serviceable .326 OBP. This makes me believe that Souza is helpless if he gets behind in the count. Regardless of his three-outcome results (roughly 60% of the time), it is hard to complain about a guy who could eclipse the 20-20 mark by a healthy margin.
Like Marte and Harper, Souza will hit homers at a lower rate and struggle to hit for average, but his pop and speed will keep him as an asset even when he slumps. If you play in an OBP or OPS league, then it is pretty easy to mask some of Souza’s real life deficiencies.