Potential second round steals in the 2015 NBA Draft
Draymond Green has played a huge part in Golden State Warriors’ historic 2014-15 season. A third year player out of Michigan State, Green has seen his game rapidly improve from barely cracking the rotation to finishing second in the Defensive Player of the Year voting.
The 6-7 power forward makes his money as a position-less scrapper whose effort and length allow him to guard anybody one-on-one; from the Jamal Crawfords of the world all the way to the Zach Randolphs. The Warriors had the best defense in the league this year after Steve Kerr implemented a switching machine with Green being the key cog.
It just so happens that the 25-year-old, who will share the daunting task of slowing down LeBron James in the NBA Finals, was a second round pick in the 2012 draft.
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From a money standpoint, second round picks are among the most valuable in the draft.
All first round contracts are guaranteed (they automatically count towards a team’s salary cap), whereas second round picks are 100 percent non-guaranteed. It’s a cheap flyer on players who have just about the same possibility of succeeding as those drafted near the end of the first round. Sam Hinkie, the highly criticised general manager for the 76ers, has taken this value strategy to a whole new level by stockpiling a treasure trove of second round picks in the hope that they’ll shed their cheap label to become rotational players in the future.
Even so, it is still extremely hard to find a prospect worthy of minutes once the top 30 players in the draft hear their name called. Between 2004 and 2013, only 80 out of a possible 300 second round picks are in the league today. Of those 80, only 29 (such as Danny Green, Chandler Parsons and Paul Millsap) are still relevant in the NBA.
Not only is it rare to find quality players in the second round, it is near impossible to have a core prospect emerge on your team from a second round slot. That’s what makes Golden State’s player development with Green so fascinating and impressive: Against all odds, they developed someone who has become the centerpiece of their championship-style defense.
Nevertheless, of the former second round picks who have achieved success in the NBA, I have come to notice a few reoccuring themes…
Multiple years of college
Most of the time, the players at the top of the draft aren’t ones that stayed more than one year in college. Karl-Anthony Towns, Jahlil Okafor, D’Angelo Russell and Emmanuel Mudiay were all 2014 high school graduates, making them 19-to-20 years old.
The reason is simple: If a player is just as good at 19 years old as someone who is 21, he has the chance to be a better player long-term thanks to more years of growth — in theory, of course. The downside is that most of the younger guys need a year or two to develop and sharpen their skills.
Players who stay multiple years in school might not have much room for growth, but they have the ability to produce immediately. They’ve been around the game longer, and have a better grasp of concepts and schemes. That doesn’t mean going to school for more than one year makes players better. With an extra year or two of learning advanced schemes and tactics, they simply seem more prepared to make the transition to the next level.
Ability to play multiple positions and styles
Versatility is what separates specialists from All-Stars.
The players who can offer multiple skills are the ones who stick on the floor instead of being used in certain situations and against certain teams. When a prospect brings multiple skills to the table, it gives teams the versatility to shift that player to different positions within their lineup.
This can also let teams play different styles of tempo or schemes because of the player’s positional versatility. For example: Chandler Parsons, who signed a near max deal with the Mavericks after being drafted in the second round in 2011. Parsons is at his best running the wing and attacking the rim in transition. The Mavericks play at a relatively fast pace, so Parsons gets to do the things he does best. But in the half court, Parsons can also function as a secondary playmaker and spot up shooter in their pick and roll heavy offense.
Having multiple skills and being able to play two contrasting styles of play have certainly aided in Parsons’ success.
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Having multiple years of high level basketball on your resume and being able to bring more than one skill to the table are what helped many of today’s second round picks stick in the league and achieve success.
With these things in mind, are there any players who can be the next second round “steal” or a “diamond in the rough” in this year’s draft?
Jonathan Holmes | University of Texas | 6-9 Power Forward
After starting out on fire during the non-conference part of the schedule, Holmes cooled off significantly once the Longhorns got into conference play. As a result, Texas suffered a colossal collapse after looking like one of the best teams in the country during the first half of the year.
Despite struggling in the latter part of his senior campaign, Holmes proved capable of being the third or fourth option on a team. He has the versatility to play both forward positions on defense, in big lineups or small. His 6-9, 240 pound frame allows him to guard bigger forwards, and his motor helps him contain guys on the perimeter.
On offense, Holmes can knock down threes in a variety of ways. He has good footwork spotting up, coming off of screens, popping off of picks, and on post ups. In particular, his turnaround jumper in the post is a thing of beauty.
The modern NBA is all about floor spacing from just about every position, and if Holmes can provide that from both forward spots he will certainly work his way into a roster spot somewhere. Add in the motor and defensive versatility, and he could very well be one of the next second round steals.
Joseph Young | University of Oregon | 6-2 Point Guard
Young dominated the Pac 12 the past two seasons, averaging around 20 points per contest and winning Pac 12 Player of the Year honors as a senior. Some of the concerns over how Young’s game will translate to the NBA are warranted: He is a shooting guard trapped in a point guard’s body, which is normally a death sentence for back court prospects. However, he has several tools that could help him be successful at the next level. Young is lightning quick with the ball and knows how to free himself for open looks. He can create separation off the dribble, and takes advantage of any breathing room with his lightning quick release. His 3-point shooting numbers dropped from 41 percent to 36 percent in 2014-15, but he still remained a killer in the mid range.
Young is most effective handling the ball in the pick and roll. According to Synergy Sports, Young ranked in top 100 in the country last season in pick and roll efficiency (45.6 percent).
Young’s skill set and build is identical to former second round pick Monta Ellis. Both are 6-2 and around 185 pounds; both are average 3-point shooters but can light it up from the mid range; and both work best out of the pick and roll. Being an everyday back up combo guard is not out of the question for Young.
Rakeem Christmas | Syracuse University | 6-10 Center
Christmas, a former McDonald’s All-American, steadily improved during his time under Jim Boeheim at Syracuse. He made a significant jump in usage and production from his junior year to his senior year, setting him up for a shot at making an NBA roster.
There is an obsession in the league for big men who can run the floor, block shots and finish in the pick and roll, because it sucks help defenders in and creates spacing for shooters. A player who can effectively set screens and finish off of them has significant value in the modern NBA, something Christmas has the potential to bring.
One of the tell tale signs of a good pick and roll player is how fast they get off their screen and get to the hoop. As a big, one can’t wait too long because they’re otherwise taking up precious space. Knowing this, Christmas does a great job of setting screens and immediately rolling to the hoop, creating space for his guard and getting separation from his man.
The one huge knock against Christmas is that he is the oldest player in the draft — he’s even older than several NBA players who have completed their first contract. But being able to play in transition end to end and as a pick and roll finisher in the half court bodes well for his future in the pros.