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Fantasy Football: Should Andrew Luck Be Drafted In The First Round?

By Dave Fuqua

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Should Andrew Luck Be Drafted In The First Round?

Today I did my first mock draft for the upcoming fantasy football season. I will grant you that it was on ESPN.com and it was just a random bunch of users so there is no telling what kind of skill level of people who were represented in this draft. It does however beg an interesting question. Where exactly will you be able to draft Andrew Luck this season?

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Andrew Luck is the rare case of when a number one overall pick lives up to the hype and seems to be delivering on the value that is expected of that pick. The Colts finished the 2014 season with an 11-5 record while winning their division and making a trip to the playoffs. The Colts season ended in the conference championship game which will more likely be remembered as the ‘deflategate’ game.

Andrew Luck did finish last year as the #2 overall QB and he was drafted behind Aaron Rodgers who finished as the #1 overall QB in 2014. Rodgers was actually drafted #2 overall and Luck was taken with the #7 pick.

On a side note, in case you are wondering, I took Le’Veon Bell with the #8 overall pick and then turned around and took Dez Bryant with the #13 pick. I felt pretty good with my opening two rounds of the draft and would easily do this again. Antonio Brown went #1, Adrian Peterson went #3 which I think is a nice pick and that had him as the #1 RB picked. I currently have Jamaal Charles as my #1 RB, but he went #6 overall here. Marshawn Lynch went #4 overall, Eddie Lacy went #5 overall which does not make sense to me even in a standard league, but that is what makes fantasy football so much fun. We all tag different values to players and can see the same guy very differently.

Now back to the question of taking Luck as the #7 overall pick. When I first saw him go at that point in the draft my immediate thought was you must be kidding. The pick really got me to thinking that it might not be such a bad pick. As soon as the draft was over I went to look at some numbers.

Is ESPN.com standard leagues not only did Luck finish as the #2 overall QB, but he also finished as the #2 overall player. As a matter of fact QBs occupied the top six spots in standard scoring leagues. Andrew Luck scored 54 more standard league points than DeMarco Murray who finished as the #7 overall player in standard leagues and the first non-QB. Just looking at strictly those numbers I would have to say that it does make pretty good sense to make that pick if you play in a standard league.

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    • The NFL has become a league that is dead-set on protecting the star QBs that it seems that it may actually be having a bit of affect on the fantasy game. These guys are pretty much untouchable as far as big hits go. I mean I know they still get hit pretty hard sometimes, but the NFL knows that these QB match-ups are what drives the big TV numbers and the big TV numbers are what drives the big money. Let’s face it money is what makes everyone’s world go round and the NFL as much as we want it to be pure it is a business and businesses are in business to make money.

    Luck had a fantastic year in 2014 throwing for 4,761 yards on 380 completions. Luck threw the ball 616 times for a completion percentage of 61.7. That is pretty impressive for a third-year QB. Luck threw for a pretty amazing 40 touchdowns with only 16 interceptions. He also threw in an additional three rushing touchdown. He is really quite the nice all-around fantasy football player.

    To summarize my thoughts I could see taking QBs that early in standard league drafts but in PPR leagues the playing field is certainly a bit more even. In most of my PPR leagues passing TDs are weighted at six points as opposed to the typical four in standard leagues so Luck actually has the edge over Rodgers in most of my PPR leagues. In my PPR leagues Luck had 40 more points than the next non-QB player in the top four.

    The facts are that Andrew Luck has certainly earned his badge as a top-tier fantasy football player and everyone who drafted him back three years ago in dynasty and keeper leagues should be patting yourselves on the back right now. Trading for Luck in dynasty leagues is most likely a long shot at best right now as his value in off-the-charts and after some more analysis I may be willing to buy Luck that high in PPR leagues this year as well. Luck has some new toys this coming year and should be just as good as last year if not even better.

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