LeBron James’ Finals shooting barrage is part of Cleveland’s plan to control tempo
By Jared Wade
LeBron James is shooting. A lot. Often. Frequently. With regularity. Aplenty.
Through three games, he has taken 107 shots. To his credit, while amassing this 36 shot-per-game average, he has also scored more points — 123 – in the first three games of an NBA Finals than anyone else in history. But even LeBron admits that this is out of character.
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At times in his past, James has been criticized for not being selfish enough: literally passing up a chance at a game winner in 2007 by dishing off to Donyell Marshall, no-showing his way through a Game 5 vs. Boston in 2010, deferring extensively in the 2011 Finals.
Not this time.
With Cleveland’s other two other stars injured, he is trying to carry a ragtag crew of plucky defenders and role players to the promised land, and LeBron knows the Cavaliers need him to handle the bulk of the scoring duties. Get on my back and let’s go get that ring, boys.
At least that’s how it seems. But the reality is a lot more complicated, and the happy-to-pass superstar is not entirely happy about how he is being forced to play.
How LeBron Wants to Play
LeBron talked with Dwyane Wade on ESPN after Cleveland took a 2-1 series lead by winning Game 3. “I don’t like to shoot this much,” he said. James then looked at his former teammate and reflected on past conversations they’ve had. “We talk about it all the time: We want to shoot 50% … I’m so far away from 50%.”
Imagine how conflicted LeBron must have been after Game 2, then, when he missed 24 of his 35 shots — an ugly 31.4% from the field — while his team won. That is, in his eyes, the wrong route to the right result, but as he told Dwyane, “I have no choice.”
We are now well into the era of efficiency, and nothing could better prove that this ethic has permeated the league than the generation’s best player talking about his low-percentage scoring with a tone usually reserved for confessing that you have cheated on your diet.
LeBron’s reluctance towards this style of play was also on display in his press conference after Game 3. James detailed his career’s trajectory, noting that before returning to Cleveland he had increased his scoring efficiency in each of the previous seven seasons.
He certainly knows that most reporters don’t care about such analytics. LeBron understands he will be judged by how many titles he wins. But the pride he showed for something most would consider trivial was unmistakable.
Valuing high-percentage shooting over high point-per-game totals isn’t new. Many legends — Larry Legend, for example — had a similar outlook. But we are now well into the era of efficiency, and nothing could better prove that this ethic has permeated the league than the generation’s best player talking about his low-percentage scoring with a tone usually reserved for confessing that you have cheated on your diet.
This shooting binge is a guilty pleasure. It is a feast that some part of him must enjoy — everybody loves to chuck — but he knows he is straying from the path of discipline. He knows it will be his undoing if he lets it become a habit.
But even on these Finals “cheat days,” he is sticking to a plan. There is a method to LeBron’s madness.
Seven Seconds or Less
The Rockets tried to run with Curry and Co. in the Western Conference finals. In that series, each team had an average of 101.4 possessions per game, via NBA.com, and Houston simply couldn’t keep up.
Cleveland has held that average down to just 93.7 possessions — lower than even the Grit N’ Grind Grizzlies could manage in round two — and set the tone for the series by playing a glacial Game 1 (91 possessions).
Slowing down the game has been critical to the Cavs’ success. By doing so, they are limiting the number of times that snipers like Steph Curry and Klay Thompson get to shoot. And part of the Cavaliers strategy to keep the possession total low is ensuring that LeBron holds the ball longer than normal. The result is that James is taking a ton of shots late in the clock. He would prefer to go against his instincts and take a tough, contested than chancing that one of his teammates puts the ball up too quickly and allows the Warriors to run the other way to blow the game open.
So, yes, James is compiling egregious shot totals. But when you consider when he is shooting, it’s clear that he is doing it in a disciplined way.
In the regular season, James attempted less than one-third of his shots with seven seconds or less left on the shot clock. Yet, down the stretch in the biggest game of the year, three-fourths of his attempts came in final seven seconds.
In Game 3, LeBron attempted 23 shots after the first quarter. Of these, 18 came with less than 10 seconds remaining on the shot clock, according to NBA.com. Even crazier: He took 8 of his final 12 shots in the game with under seven seconds on the shot clock.
In the regular season, James attempted less than one-third of his shots with seven seconds or less left on the shot clock. Yet, down the stretch in the biggest game of the year, three-fourths of his attempts came in final seven seconds.
The number is a bit ironic.
Seven Seconds or Less is a famous book about the uptempo Phoenix Suns’ offense run by Steve Nash. And here is LeBron turning that concept on its head, bringing the Finals back to the 1990s by holding, holding, holding the ball until the bitter end of the shot clock.
This is a new strategy for Cleveland. And it wasn’t a one-game fluke.
In Game 2, 18 of LeBron’s 35 shots came with seven seconds or less on the clock. In Game 1, it was 17 of his 38 — including one stretch in which he shot 13 of 18 so late.
Such an approach isn’t the hallmark of a player glory hunting and stat chasing. It isn’t even someone believing that they need to do all the scoring because their teammates are limited players.
This is an efficiency-obsessed team leader who knows that taking shots late in the clock will make his field-goal percentage crater — yet he opts to take them to fulfill the larger game plan anyway.
Some other numbers add further evidence.
NBA.com charts player speed during games. These are basically “Neato — but who cares?” stats. But, in this case, they seem relavent.
At an 3.68 mph average in Game 3, LeBron was the slowest Cavalier on the court. In fact, no other Cavalier moved slower than 4.0 mph. The story was the same in Game 2, with LeBron loafing around at 3.89 mph while all of his teammates clocked in at 4.17 mpg or higher. This included impressive quickness from real-life giant Timofey Mozgov (who sprinted around at 4.43 mph, higher than any Warrior who played at least 15 minutes), Iman Shumpert (4.5 mpg), and James Jones (4.72 mph).
These speedometer readouts match what we are seeing on the court: LeBron is controlling the ball and moving slowly while all his teammates bust their ass.
Given that James is the fastest player on the team, him moving so slowly can only be a deliberate choice.
They dash all over the court to prevent Golden State’s from finding open space. They rush back on defense to stop the break. They race for loose balls.
Meanwhile, LeBron walks the ball up the court. LeBron stands motionless holding the rock for five seconds at a time. LeBron backs down defenders with all the urgency of a chubby Mark Jackson.
Given that James is the fastest player on the team, him moving so slowly can only be a deliberate choice.
Sometimes, it is incredibly effective.
More often, it is not.
But no matter how ugly some of these possessions are, the recent results speak for themselves: The Warriors, which easily led the league by averaging 20.9 fast-break points per game in the regular season, scored just 4 transition points in Game 3. It probably wasn’t a coincidence that they never led in the game, instead needing some miraculous shooting in the fourth quarter to prevent a blowout.
The Cavs ground the tempo to a halt.
The approach is destroying LeBron’s efficiency, but it is the best way for the Cavaliers to minimize the number of possessions in the game and maximize their chance to win.
If Steve Kerr and Golden State can’t figure out a way to get the game moving faster, the Warriors might end up losing to a roster with far less talent. With their title hopes on the line, they are running out time — just like LeBron planned.
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