Devin Booker or Jerian Grant? Shot charts make for interesting comparison

John Bauman is the editor of Keeping It Heel, a blog on the FanSided network that covers the North Carolina Tar Heels. You can find him on Twitter on both @KeepingItHeel and @bauman_john.

In the teens of Chad Ford’s latest draft board, there are two prospects similar in position and physical attribute: Jerian Grant, a 6-5 point guard from Notre Dame, and Devin Booker, a 6-6 sharpshooter from Kentucky.

Teams drafting in the middle of the first round deciding between these two players are in the market for scoring at the guard position. The choice between these two players, however, is tough — do you take the established veteran in Grant or the younger Booker, who is far more of a project?

A big part of the equation can be found in the shot charts of these two players. Despite their similar attributes, they have entirely different games. One player is much more suited for a wide-spread NBA system, while the other is a volume-heavy college player whose game may not transfer as well.

First, let’s take a look at Devin Booker from Kentucky.

The first thing to examine is the percentage at the rim. Booker finished well around the basket against elite competition during his freshman campaign, shooting 38-of-54 (70.3 percent). For a two guard making the jump to the NBA, converting paint shots at a high rate is key as it prevents defenses from being able to chase them off their sweet spots.

While there are concerns over how his athleticism and short wingspan (6-8) will translate to the NBA, teams should be confident that Booker is strong and talented enough to finish when he does get to the basket.

But Booker’s bread and butter is his ability to space the floor. He is a solid 3-point shooter from across the board, having made 41.1 percent of his 141 attempts from the perimeter and knocking down spot-up shots at a rate of 1.83 points per possession, according to Draft Express. Teams aren’t necessarily looking for the next Kyle Korver when drafting Booker. All they are hoping for is a solid-to-above average shooter, and that’s exactly what he was in college. Booker needs to work on shots in the corners, especially in the right corner, which has become so important in today’s NBA.

There is not a lot of midrange activity from Booker (though he showed the makings of a smooth pull-up game), which I like. Midrange jumpers are less popular than ever these days, and Booker fits into the analytically minded mold for what kinds of shots players should be taking.

Shooting well in college from behind the arc doesn’t always translate in the NBA, but Booker is a good enough finisher at the basket and all-around offensive player that whoever drafts him in the mid-teens will be thrilled with the offensive player they are getting.

Now, let’s take a look at Jerian Grant’s shot chart.

The biggest similarity to Booker’s is all the red in the paint. While Booker finishes at the basket using strength and size, Grant is quicker and craftier. Because of his above average height for a point guard, NBA teams thinking about drafting Grant should be confident that his proficiency in the paint will carry over. He’s not going to shoot 73 percent, but there is reason to believe he will be an above average finisher for a guard.

However, the similarities between the two players stops there. Grant has more volume in the midrange, due in large part to his high usage role in Notre Dame. Grant was forced to create more of his own offense through pick and rolls and isolations, whereas Booker was more of a No. 2 or No. 3 option for Kentucky.

Next year, Grant will have to tone down his volume all across the board as he adjusts to a backseat role. That means far attempts in the midrange and from behind the arc. The key for Grant will be adjusting to his new responsibilities while increasing his efficiency in all areas, especially from 3-point range. He was 12-for-44 from the middle three last season, a spot point guards frequently find themselves in while running pick and rolls.

There could be a shot chart of a good offensive player lurking here, but I have my concerns. Add in some expected regress at the rim, take away a lot of the volume that Grant thrived on to score at Notre Dame, and the team that ends up drafting Grant could find itself with a stat-stuffing yet inefficient offensive player out of the gates.

Who would you take?

If given the choice, I’m taking Booker without thinking twice. Booker is somewhat less developed than Grant, but I like how his offensive game fits in the modern NBA. He has the perfect size for a wing and I’m betting on his ability to become a good defender, better passer and ball handler with time.

Grant is a good player, and I know he will be able to finish at the rim, but point guards who can’t shoot get eaten up these days. Defenders go under picks and generally neglect guarding them, causing all kinds of bad chain reactions for the offensive play.

I’m taking the better shooter when the players are close. In this case, it’s Booker.

Shot charts via Shot Analytics