Fansided

DraftKings NASCAR: 2015 Quicken Loans 400 Fantasy Analysis

By Rich Pelesky

facebooktwitterreddit

DraftKings NASCAR: 2015 Quicken Loans 400 Fantasy Analysis

Welcome back to FantasyCPR’s coverage of the 2015 Quicken Loans 400 at Michigan International Speedway to be held on Sunday, June 14th. Whether you are a fantasy racing player or just a NASCAR fan, let us be your one stop shop for all the information you need to prepare you for NASCAR races in the 2015 season. Go to our Fantasy NASCAR Hub at https://fansided.com/category/nascar-fantasy/ and bookmark it!

Live Feed

NASCAR: Denny Hamlin not the big winner at Pocono
NASCAR: Denny Hamlin not the big winner at Pocono /

Beyond the Flag

  • NASCAR: Kyle Busch reveals ideal retirement seasonBeyond the Flag
  • NASCAR: Denny Hamlin penalty could come back to haunt himBeyond the Flag
  • NASCAR: Denny Hamlin ties all-time unwanted recordBeyond the Flag
  • NASCAR: Major recurring issue not a factor at PoconoBeyond the Flag
  • NASCAR: Recurring issue may not be a factor at PoconoBeyond the Flag

    • Our weekly coverage will typically consist of 4 articles a week: 1) A fantasy recap from the previous race that includes driver scores and our prediction results; 2) A race preview mid-week prior to the race; 3) A comprehensive fantasy analysis after the first practice & qualifying that will include the starting grid; and 4) Our expert driver picks released after the final practice.  To stay updated and get the posts as they are published, bookmark our site as well as follow us on Twitter!

    Our fantasy coverage and predictions are unique compared to other outlets as it takes in the cars ‘ and drivers’ current performance over the weekend instead of just their historical statistics coming in. For DraftKings, this is crucial as starting position and in-race performance are important factors in fantasy scoring. This approach (vice releasing driver picks early in the week) leads to more accurate and successful predictions as you can see in our weekly Fantasy Recaps.

    Next: The Field: Qualifying Order with DraftKings Salaries

    Qualifying Order (NOTE: This does not reflect any moves to back of the field that may be put in place by NASCAR for certain cars for the start of the race):

    1. #5 Kasey Kahne, Great Clips Chevrolet ($10,800, 11th)
    2. #4 Kevin Harvick Budweiser/Jimmy John’s Chevrolet ($13,900, 1st)
    3. #2 Brad Keselowski, Miller Lite Ford ($11,300, 6th)
    4. #19 Carl Edwards, Arris Toyota ($10,200, 13th)
    5. #21 Ryan Blaney, Motorcraft/Quick Lane Ford ($9,100, 20th)
    6. #24 Jeff Gordon, Panasonic Chevrolet ($11,100, 8th)
    7. #3 Austin Dillon, American Ethanol ($8,800, 21st)
    8. #48 Jimmie Johnson, Kobalt Tools Chevrolet ($13,000, 2nd)
    9. #78 Martin Truex Jr., Furniture Row Chevrolet ($11,500 5th)                                                                          
    1. #18 Kyle Busch, M&M’s Crispy Toyota ($10,800, 11th)
    2. #22 Joey Logano, Shell Pennzoil Ford ($11,200, 7th)
    3. #20 Matt Kenseth, Dollar General Toyota ($11,000, 9th)
    4. #11 Denny Hamlin, FedEx Express Toyota ($11,900, 10th)
    5. #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr., AMP ENERGY Chevrolet ($11,900, 4th)
    6. #14 Tony Stewart, Bass Pro Shops/Mobil 1 Chevrolet ($9,500, 18th)
    7. #42 Kyle Larson, Target Chevrolet ($10,100, 14th)
    8. #27 Paul Menard, Moen/Menards Chevrolet ($9,700, 16th)
    9. #55 David Ragan, Aaron’s Dream Machine Toyota ($8,500, 23rd)
    10. #10 Danica Patrick, GoDaddy Chevrolet ($8,400, 24th)
    11. #6 Trevor Bayne, AdvoCare Ford ($7,900, 27th)
    12. #16 Greg Biffle Safety-Kleen Ford ($9,400, 19th)
    13. #33 Ty Dillon, Nexium 24HR Chevrolet ($7,700, 29th)
    14. #31 Ryan Newman, Quicken Loans Chevrolet ($9,600 17th)
    15. #41 Kurt Busch, Haas Automation Chevrolet ($12,300, 3rd)
    16. #1 Jamie McMurray, McDonalds Chevrolet ($9,900, 15th)
    17. #43 Aric Almirola, Smithfield Ford ($8,300, 25th)
    18. #13 Casey Mears GEICO Chevrolet ($7,500, 30th)
    19. #7 Alex Bowman, TBA Chevrolet ($7,100, 38th)
    20. #40 Landon Cassill, Carsforsale.com Chevrolet ($7,300, 32nd)
    21. #9 Sam Hornish Jr., Medallion Bank Ford ($7,400, 31st)
    22. #47 AJ Allmendinger, Kroger/Hungry Jack Chevrolet ($7,800, 28th)
    23. #15 Clint Bowyer, Cherry 5-hour Energy Toyota ($8,700, 22nd)
    24. #17 Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Fastenal Ford ($8,200, 26th)
    25. #38 David Gilliland, Love’s Travel Stops Ford ($7,300, 32nd)
    26. #46 Michael Annett, Pilot Flying J Chevrolet ($7,100, 38th)
    27. #51 Justin Allgaier, Switch Hitch Chevrolet ($7,300, 32nd)
    28. #34 Brett Moffitt, Dockside Logistics ($7,000, 41st)
    29. #26 Jeb Burton, Maxim/Estes Toyota ($7,100, 38th)
    30. #98 Josh Wise, Ford ($7,200, 35th)
    31. #35 Cole Whitt, Speed Stick Ford ($7,000, 41st)
    32. #23 J.J. Yeley, Dr. Pepper/Heinz ($7,200, 35th)
    33. #32 Mike Bliss, CorvetteParts.net Chevrolet ($7,200, 35th)
    34. #83 Matt DiBenedetto, Burger King Toyota ($7,100, 38th)

    Next: Quicken Loans 400 Fantasy Strategy

    Quicken Loans 400/Michigan International Speedway Fantasy Strategy: Although my race picks will not be released until after the final practice sessions on Saturday, here is a sneak peek at some of the trends that will factor into my selections. This also gives fantasy players some foundations to base their own fantasy research on.

    More from FanSided

    1. This race is on a 2 mile oval that allows for the fastest racing in NASCAR.
    2. Strongly consider drivers that have a good history in this race, especially after the surface here was repaved before the 2012 races.
    3. Also consider drivers with a good history at the Fontana (another 2 mile oval) and Pocono (another large track that favors strong engines).
    4. Chevrolet dominated last June at Michigan, qualifying six and finishing seven in the Top 8.
    5. Leaders in average finish among drivers with 10+ starts: 1) Carl Edwards (9.2), MAtt Kenseth (10.3), Greg Biffle (11.0), Tony Stewart (11.2), and Kevin Harvick (12.5).
    6. Pole winners have done well here in the last 4 races, with two winning (Gordon, Aug14, Logano Aug13), a 2nd (Havick, Jun14) and an 8th (Edwards, Aug14) finish.
    7. No one that finished in the Top 4 in the two 2014 races qualified worse than 7th.
    8. In the last two June races, there were are lot of different cars leading laps as 5 cars in 2014 and 8 cars in 2013 led 15 laps or more.
    9. The large track at Michigan allows for more cars on the lead lap: 20 finished on lead lap in the Spring 2014 race and 27 finished there in Spring 2013.
    10. Rain shortened much of the practices and is forecasted on Sunday. Look for teams and drivers that have done well in weather-affected races.

    Next: General NASCAR Strategy for DraftKings Contests

    General DraftKings Strategy: The next thing to consider while filling out your teams is the DraftKings scoring system. DraftKings owners will draft a team of 5 drivers with a $50,000 Salary Cap. Scoring will be based on several factors including a driver’s Finishing Position, Place Differential, Fastest Laps, Laps Led, and Pass Differential. Please refer to the Daily Fantasy NASCAR Strategy Guide by DraftKings that breaks down the specific rules and point calculations that govern these contests.

    More from DraftKings

    The salaries used are set weekly for each contest before qualifying and practice and are based on the overall strength of each driver/team/car for that particular race. The calculations that DraftKings use to determine drivers’ salaries are based on a driver’s ability to score fantasy points and as such consider all the five aforementioned factors. Since NASCAR is a new Daily Fantasy game, DraftKings has made it easier for players to understand the scoring system by listing a driver’s Fantasy Points Per Race (FPPR) next to a driver’s salary that shows a driver’s performance to date (including 2015 races that did not have DK contests). The following are some of the factors that determine a driver’s salary and something that a fantasy player should look at:

    1. A Driver and/or Team’s current level of speed and performance this season.
    2. A Driver and/or Team’s history at that specific track and race.
    3. A Driver and/or Team’s history at similar tracks and races.

    Next: Post-Practice NASCAR Strategy Primer

    Because the DraftKings salaries are set prior to qualifying and practice, there are many things that can change a driver’s relative fantasy value before the race starts. Some things to consider:

    1. Qualifying and practice speed are a good (but not the only) indicator of a driver’s projected performance and factor largely in a driver’s potential to maximize points in the Finish Position, Fastest Laps, and Laps Led categories.
    2. The DraftKings points system is unique and emphasizes both in-race performance as well as finishing position. So it is paramount to target at least some drivers that start further back in the field yet can compete as a top-performing car. This will get you points in the Place Differential and Pass Differential categories.
    3. Considering a Driver’s Pit Crew proficiency is also important as drivers with fast cars can earn more points in the Pass Differential category during green flag racing due to lost track position during pit stops.

    We will be back on Saturday evening with our Quicken Loans 400 Fantasy Picks!

    If you haven’t joined DraftKings yet and want to play in their exciting contests, use this link to sign up and you will earn a free contest entry. Sign up today and DraftKings will also match your initial deposit up to $600.

    Next: Quicken Loans 400 Fantasy Picks