2015 NBA Draft Scouting Report: Jahlil Okafor
Around this time last year, any NBA scout would’ve told you that Jahlil Okafor is going to be the top pick in the 2015 NBA Draft.
Before the world even saw him step foot on Duke’s campus, Jahlil was being crowned Preseason Player of the Year, First Team All-American, Freshman of the Year and the No. 1 prospect in the draft. Few other players his age were able to dominate the competition like he did, making jaws drop at his combination of size and quickness.
Fast forward 12 months, however, and Okafor has been somewhat written off by fans and experts. Karl-Anthony Towns has surpassed him as the consensus No. 1 pick and with recent workouts and rumor scuttlebutt, guys like D’Angelo Russell and Kristaps Porzingis have even entered the conversation for the No. 2 spot ahead of Okafor.
It isn’t as though Okafor didn’t impress in his only season at Duke. Averaging 17.3 points and 8.5 rebounds per game while shooting 66.4 percent from the field is not only great by any normal standard, it is phenomenal for a kid as young as Jahlil (19-years-old). He was not only a First Team All-American, but also the first freshman ever to win ACC Player of the Year.
Okafor lived up to and surpassed every preseason measurement people had given him.
So, why does it seem like Okafor has been put in the shadows? Along with all of the strengths in Okafor’s games, there were several weaknesses that reared their ugly heads in his only season in Durham.
STRENGTHS
Okafor’s calling card is his post game. Duke ran the bulk of their offense through the big fella on the block, and he more often than not delivered. For players who posted up at least 100 times in 2014-15, Okafor ranked 24th in the country by shooting 55.8 percent.
Most of Okafor’s success came from his 6-11, 270 pound frame. Being able to duck in and create deep post position is half the battle for bigs, and it’s something Okafor excels at. You just aren’t going to be able to push a guy that big and mobile off the block.
What makes Okafor special beyond being physically imposing is his surprising quickness. Most back-to-basket centers are slow footed and rely on a couple post moves and pump fakes to get their shots at the rim. Okafor is one of the few bigs who blends his power with nimble feet and tremendous footwork, put on full display in his patented spin move towards the baseline.
Along with his huge build and quick feet, he has extremely long arms (7-5 wingspan) and humongous hands. All of this put together is why Okafor dominated the glass on both ends, especially on offense. Okafor averaged the second most offensive boards per game (3.5) of any player in this year’s draft class.
It’s mandatory for bigs in the NBA to be able to execute in the pick and roll. Okafor’s elite at posting up, but Duke rarely ran sets for him to score out of a pick and roll — when they did, it was more often a means to get a post up. According to Synergy, Okafor only had 19 possessions all year receiving the ball as the roll man in a ball screen. It’s a small sample size, but he did flaunt his potential.
While most teams look for a vicious, fast rim roller who dunks everything in sight nowadays, part of being a good roll man is knowing how to get into a passing window for the ball handler to make a good entry pass. Tyler Zeller of the Boston Celtics is a good example of someone who is effective in a ball screen but isn’t a tenacious dunker or lob target. He simply knows where to go after he screens. Okafor does that really well; he rolls the right way, gets into the passing gap and finishes around the basket thanks to his nice touch.
Because of his dominance on the low block, Okafor commanded a double team in the post for much of his time at Duke. With how much ball movement is stressed in the league today, it’s imperative for bigs to be able to make passes out of the post, otherwise it’s nearly impossible to run an offense through a post up.
Luckily for Okafor, that isn’t a problem.
The most underrated part of Okafor’s game is his passing, always finding the open man out of double teams. Few big men have the ability to palm the ball and rifle a cross court pass one handed with two defenders draped over them like Jahlil can. The result: Duke scored 1.19 points per possession when Okafor passed out of post-ups, according to Draft Express.
WEAKNESSES
Okafor’s slight slip on draft boards has come thanks to two elephants in the room: free throw shooting and defense.
Everybody in the NBA wants a big who can shoot. Just in these playoffs, we’ve seen centers get benched late in games for not being able to do so. Okafor shot 51 percent from the free throw line this season, second lowest of any center in the entire draft. It is mind boggling how someone can have such good touch around the basket and yet be abysmal from the free throw line.
Historically, free throw shooting has been one of the best indicators as to how good of a shooter a player will be at the next level. Okafor has a long way to go if he is going to become a floor spacing option in the NBA.
Okafor might have nimble feet and good footwork in the post, but unfortunately that doesn’t translate on the other end. Half the battle on defense is having the right angles and footwork — Okafor is too slow reacting to what the offense is doing and can’t move fast enough to recover. He gets frozen way too often, especially in the pick and roll, where teams attacked him constantly.
It’s hard to stay on the floor as a center if you can’t protect the rim. Okafor has incredible length, but he still isn’t athletic enough or quick enough to stay in front of opponents to block a shot or rotate over in time to contest a layup. Teams in the NBA are going to be smart about attacking him this way. They’ll put him in multiple ball screens each time down and send players right at him knowing that he can’t offer much in resistance.
One other little thing that is a pet peeve of mine is when players can’t use both hands. Jahlil is so dominant physically that he can get away with using his right hand whenever he wants. In the NBA, teams will be able to take that away when he decides to use his right hand over his right shoulder.
Watch as he gets stripped trying to do that here:
PROJECTION
Should these weaknesses worry teams? Absolutely not.
The free throw shooting is definitely something that warrants concern, but the defense less so. It normally takes players until their second contract to understand defensive schemes at the NBA level. There’s no reason why Okafor can’t turn into someone like DeMarcus Cousins, who used to be an awful defender but now does a good job of getting in front of players and contesting shots at the rim. Okafor is never going to be an Andrew Bogut or Rudy Gobert, but he can be an average defender with the right coaching.
Okafor’s best comparison, and ultimately ceiling, is DeMarcus Cousins. Measurements and skill wise, they both have lots of similarities. Okafor has the makings of a back to the basket monster, something that’s rare in the modern NBA. With his ability to punish guys one-on-one and passing out of a double team, he should be able to have a ton of success at the next level.
Majority of statistics come via Synergy Sports.