How would Karl-Anthony Towns fit with the Minnesota Timberwolves?
Normally around this time of the year, when it gets closer and closer to draft day, it becomes increasingly more evident who the No. 1 pick is going to be.
This year, it looks like Karl-Anthony Towns is going to be that player.
Everyone knew Towns’ upside coming out of high school, but there were several questions about his game. He tended to float on the perimeter and wouldn’t post-up like the majority of 7-footers his age. He didn’t wow you with his athleticism or quickness, either, and lacked the ball handling skills necessary to play power forward in the NBA.
After one year at Kentucky, Towns has not only claimed the spot as the consensus No. 1 guy, but is now being discussed as a potential franchise cornerstone. His per game numbers weren’t eye-popping, but his per 40 numbers were astounding for a 19-year-old — 19.5 points, 12.7 rebounds and 4.2 blocks.
This past Monday, it was reported that the Timberwolves have made up their mind: Towns is going to be the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. He can shoot down the report as much as he wants, but it’s been a foregone conclusion for months that his name would be the first called on June 25.
So, what tools does he have that makes him so special and how would he fit with Minnesota?
STRENGTHS
A lot of the buzz around Jahlil Okafor is that with his soft hands and bullish frame, he is a post-up nightmare. I might be one of the few that would boldly argue that Towns is almost as good and has the potential to be even better than Okafor in that regard.
One of Okafor’s weaknesses is that he only uses one hand (his right) no matter what block or shoulder he uses. Towns showed the ability at Kentucky to have a nice touch with both hands around the basket.
Okafor has more moves in his arsenal, sure, but Towns can develop his own book of post moves in time. Having the ability to use both hands will certainly help him out with that. Towns shot 51.4 percent on post-ups last season, near top 50 in the nation for bigs who posted-up at least 100 times, according to Synergy Sports.
Towns had insane rebounding and shot blocking numbers this season, too. He ranks fifth in the entire draft in rebounds per 40 minutes and fourth in blocks per 40 minutes, both of which are tough to do in tandem at an elite level. When a player rotates over to block a shot, Towns is usually taken out of the play for a rebound because he is too busy contesting a shot. The best shot blockers can not only deter a shot at the rim but also put themselves in a position to snag the ball when it comes off the rim.
Watch as Towns contests at the rim and then stays in the play to grab the board.
According to Synergy, Towns only allowed opponents to shoot 16 percent in the post and 40 percent at the rim all season. That’s insane. Please, do yourself a favor and don’t make the same mistake as this poor North Carolina player.
One of the tell tale indicators of whether or not a player will be able to be a competent jump shooter at the next level is the free throw percentage in college. While most centers might be liabilities at the free throw line late in games, Towns is an excellent free throw shooter, putting in 81 percent of his attempts at the line.
While he may not be an elite jump shooter, there’s no doubt that Towns could develop into a knockdown midrange and 3-point shooter in time. His mechanics are sound and he’s been lighting it up during pre-draft workouts.
HOW DOES HE FIT WITH THE TIMBERWOLVES?
OFFENSE
Minnesota had one of the youngest rosters in the league this past season and their core is still up in the air, with most of the players still being on their rookie contracts.
The guys who we can be certain are on the team going forward are point guard Ricky Rubio (whose new contract extension will kick in next season) and Andrew Wiggins. The likes of Zach LaVine, Adreian Payne, Anthony Bennett, Gorgui Dieng and Shabazz Muhammad are all interesting pieces who bring a specific skill to the table, but their futures in Minnesota aren’t quite as clear. It’s also safe to assume that Nikola Pekovic is probably not in the long-term plans — there’s already been plenty of speculation that he’ll be traded — seeing as the Wolves are set on drafting a center.
The development of Towns in addition to all of the younger players on this team is going to be a real litmus test for how well Flip Saunders is going to do as the coach moving forward.
Towns is athletic and mobile for a 7-footer, but asking him to play power forward might be a stretch. He is at his best with his back to the basket. All of the extra stuff is just bonus weaponry for Minnesota to play with. Having a big man who can set ball screens and pop is going to be huge for Rubio, even if it is only out to about 18-20 feet. Rubio can’t shoot a lick, and Minnesota can use all the spacing they can get.
Minnesota did post-up Wiggins and Muhammad often last season, but I’m not a fan of guard post-ups as the main offense. If there is a mismatch, then that’s great, but with the lack of floor spacing and all the unknown commodities on the team, putting these guys into positions where they’re going to grow and be stretched is optimal. Wiggins shouldn’t be catching at the elbow or on the block all the time; he should have more opportunities to run side pick and rolls, curl off of pin downs, or even ISO to help him develop more skills and see if he can do multiple things.
The nice thing about this team is going to be the possibility of having stretchy players around Rubio. Wiggins proved to be a better shooter than anticipated, the likes of Kevin Martin and Chase Budinger are known for knocking down shots, and odds are one of the many power forwards the Wolves have will turn out to be a stretch 4. Adding Towns makes the potential of having space at every position (except Rubio’s) even more promising.
An offense centered around Rubio and Towns pick and rolls, with some sort of curl action on the other side for Wiggins, along with a spot up shooter like Martin is ideal for Minnesota. When the bench unit comes in, they can run through the elbows with Dieng and Muhammad. Dieng was featured almost solely in that role at Louisville and Muhammad has found a spot in the league as an undersized, post-up four.
DEFENSE
Towns is the type of player you build your defense around. He’s that good.
Rubio and Wiggins are both excellent on ball defenders, but both tend to chase steals and gamble off the ball. Martin is an absolute disaster defensively, and Muhammad doesn’t look promising on that end, either. The nice thing about having Towns is that he saves his teammates by being the elite rim protector he is; when a guy gets by his man on the perimeter, Towns is there to scare him off.
The Timberwolves could run a scheme similar to what the Pacers run with Roy Hibbert: drop back on pick and rolls and funnel everything to Towns at the rim. They can avoid to get aggressive on the wing with Wiggins and Rubio with Towns behind them to mop things up.
My fear with this team defensively is who the other big who plays with Towns. Muhammad can’t guard wings and isn’t big enough to guard fours, Dieng doesn’t add much defensively outside of slight rim protection, and Bennett is probably going to be traded.
The ideal pairing for Towns would be Payne playing power forward. Payne doesn’t have the strength of rim protection to play five but is athletic for his position and has potential to stretch the floor. He can stick with forwards and switch onto the occasional wing, too.
The defensive end of the floor is more promising than the offensive end, but the Timberwolves have the start of something with drafting Towns. There are a couple more moves to make to shake up the roster — trading Pekovic and Bennett, maybe getting value out of Martin and Budinger on the market as well, plus figuring out what LaVine and Muhammad’s roles are going to be in this league. Other than that, though, Minnesota definitely has a lot of things to be excited about with Towns coming to Minneapolis.