Making the case for Stanley Johnson over Kelly Oubre

John Bauman is the editor of Keeping It Heel, a blog on the FanSided network that covers the North Carolina Tar Heels. You can find him on Twitter on both @KeepingItHeel and @bauman_john.

Stanley Johnson and Kelly Oubre Jr. were both top 10 recruits in the class of 2014 and spent just one year in college before jumping to the pros. Johnson and Oubre join the ranks of many one and dones in this year’s draft, including the trio of players at the top of Chad Ford’s draft board, Karl-Anthony Towns, D’Angelo Russell and Jahlil Okafor.

With one and dones, it can be hard to project how young players will do in the NBA with just a year’s worth of play at the college level. Oubre played a small role for Kansas, logging just 52.3 percent of possible minutes played. He pulled the trigger when he got into games, but the overall sample is far smaller than many of his counterparts.

Stanley Johnson, on the other hand, has a much larger body of work to nitpick. He was the No. 1 option for Arizona and finished the year using 26.2 percent of the team’s possession, per KenPom — a mark that ranked 8th among eligible players in the PAC-12.

One way to cut out some of the guesswork when looking at these players is to analyze their shot charts to see where and how well they shot during their lone season in college.

First, let’s take a look at Stanley Johnson’s shot chart.

The first thing that pops out is Johnson’s 50 percent shooting at the rim, resulting in light blue shades around the basket. Johnson struggled to adjust to the length and strength of defenders in the college game, and failed to convert at a high rate in the paint.

Andrew Ford addressed this same issue in his scouting report of Johnson back in April:

"“Perhaps Johnson’s most glaring issue offensively is his ability, or lack thereof, to finish at the rim. In half-court situations, he shot a brutal 40 percent at the rim. His lack of touch is alarming, and he often enters the paint out of control like a bull in a china shop. His incredibly quick first step coupled with his aforementioned power and athleticism that allowed him to be so effective on drives to the rim mean little if he can’t learn how to finish better in the paint. Right now, Johnson’s saving grace is his ability to get to the free throw line (4.9 free throws per-40 minutes) and convert his freebies at a high rate (74.2 percent).”"

This should be a point of concern for NBA teams, who, when looking to draft Johnson, want not just a spot-up shooter but an attacker and finisher at the basket. There is still time, though, for Johnson to get his act together. He is a young 19-year-old and has the athleticism and length to become a better finisher at the bucket.

Outside the paint, Johnson was a solid 3-point shooter last season, converting 37.1 percent of his attempts from deep. Johnson wasn’t known for his shooting coming out of high school and his form is a little funky, but still he finds a way to get the ball in the hoop. His best location is from the right wing, where he shot 40 percent. However, Johnson has to become more efficient from both corners as he transitions to playing in an NBA offense where he doesn’t always have the ball in his hands or luxury of taking the final shot.

You can also see the seeds of a fruitful post-up game being planted on the left and right blocks. There wasn’t a lot of volume from those areas, but the potential to add a solid post- up game to take advantage of size mismatches with smaller defenders is a major plus for NBA talent evaluators.

Now, let’s take a look at Oubre’s chart.

Pretty similar coloration, right?

Oubre has less volume on his chart than Johnson. He has a total of 228 shots logged in the Shot Analytics database, while Johnson had 375. That makes a big difference in the look of their shot charts because, well, Oubre’s looks incomplete.

Throw in an inconsistent season shooting the ball, as Chris Stone noted in his scouting report on the Kansas wing, and it’s hard to truly evaluate his potential.

"While his numbers compare favorably to Bradley Beal’s collegiate career, Oubre isn’t ready to have an offensive impact similar to the Wizards guard. During his lone season at Kansas, Oubre was an average 3-point shooter … and consistency proved to be the problem. After an impressive performance in non-conference play, he only managed to connect on 32.1 percent of his attempts during Big 12 competition."

However, there are still a few takeaways to be drawn from this chart.

Like Johnson, Oubre struggled in the paint. His 55 percent conversion rate was a touch better than Johnson’s, but it is still a far cry from where you want an athletic lottery pick to be.

Despite some inconsistency on the perimeter, Oubre showed hints of potential 3-point aptitude. He made 35.8 percent of his threes in college and, like Johnson, was best on the right wing. This shot chart isn’t enough to go off of to try to project whether Oubre can develop into a legitimate 3-point threat. It will come down to how much work he puts into the shot and how much slack Oubre gets to try and work on the shot in-game.

Who are you picking?

This one is tougher than the Devin Booker/Jerian Grant discussion. Both Oubre and Johnson have great size on the wing, are just 19 and have time to grow into their games and bodies. Both have similar offensive footprints, too, proven by their shot charts.

At the end of the day, I would take Johnson. His offensive game is more developed at this stage of their respective careers, and I like how he has the potential to develop a post-up game. He is also a tough, long defender who can guard multiple positions.

With these one and done players, the lack of information can make the decisions tough. However, teams have to go with the film and data they have and make the most educated guess about which 19-year-old to invest their resources in. For now, Johnson is the safer bet.

Shot charts from Shot Analytics.