John Bauman is the editor of Keeping It Heel, a blog on the FanSided network that covers the North Carolina Tar Heels. You can find him on Twitter on both @KeepingItHeel and @bauman_john.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have the No. 1 pick in the 2015 NBA Draft after walking away as winners on lottery night. While getting the top pick is like taking home the golden ticket — it’s what every non-playoff team is gunning for — there’s a monumental amount of pressure to get the pick right, especially in a year where there’s no consensus on who the best player is.
The Timberwolves have spent weeks of energy scouting and hashing out minute details of each prospect to figure out who the missing piece is in their puzzle. That’s lead them to two options: Karl-Anthony Towns or Jahlil Okafor.
Towns and Okafor both play the center position and spent their freshman season on elite teams. Okafor’s Duke Blue Devils won the National Championship, while Towns’ Kentucky Wildcats lost just one game all season long. However, as NBA prospects, the expect to fill entirely different roles. Okafor is a more polished offensive player at this stage of their respective careers, but Towns’ potential has no ceiling.
To get a better idea of what they each bring to the table for an NBA team looking for an elite big man, let’s take a look at their shot charts.
Towns has the kind of shot chart teams look for in a budding big man. He is efficient around the basket, finishing 72 percent of his shots at the rim — important, seeing as centers that struggle in the paint tend to have short NBA careers. Towns excelled at finishing against stout competition in college and he will be a great finisher in the league as he grows even stronger and more adept down low.
There are also hints of Towns’ hidden proficiency from range in this shot chart. Towns took eight 3-pointers at Kentucky, canning just two of them. However, videos of the big man raining in treys in pre-draft workouts stirred up some discussion about Towns’ potential as a 3-point shooter.
This shot chart above doesn’t have enough volume listed to give any definitive answers about his future as a marksman, yet even the thought of Towns potentially being able to step out to the perimeter in time excites me. He didn’t get the chance to show it last year playing for a talented Kentucky team, but Towns could perfect that shot in the NBA.
A good jump shot opens up all kinds of fun opportunities for the team adding Towns. On a most basic level, he could draw an opposing big man out from underneath the basket onto the perimeter, removing him from his prime shot blocking territory. For a point guard like Ricky Rubio, who has no makings of a jump shot, having a teammate like Towns would do wonders for his game.
Towns is a unique talent. Throw his playmaking and athleticism in with his shooting ability, and he has all the makings of an elite big man. The threat of being able to both post a smaller defender up and scamper out to the corner to hit a 3 is incredibly valuable, and Towns seems to have those threats locked up.
Now, let’s take a Jahlil Okafor’s shot chart.
Okafor’s shot chart looks awfully similar to Towns’ chart. However, there are a few small, valuable insights here.
On a basic level, Okafor shows great proficiency at finishing around the basket. The difference between Okafor and Towns, though, is in the efficiency. Okafor had more volume and was more efficient that Towns, illustrated by the greater quantity of red hexagons around the basket.
As the focal point of Duke’s offense, it’s no wonder Okafor made and attempted more shots than Towns — Towns had to share shots and minutes with the rest of his talented teammates, like potential lottery picks Willie-Cauley Stein and Trey Lyles. However, Okafor also did more with the shots he took. Per KenPom, Okafor’s effective field goal percentage of 66.4 was the fifth best mark in the nation, and significantly outpaced Towns’ mark of 57 percent.
This efficiency comes from Okafor’s abilities as a true post-up threat. Okafor has a variety of moves and fakes that you expect to see from a savvy NBA vet — not from a 19-year-old prospect. Okafor has full arsenal of weapons and an understanding of when and how to use them. Right away, opposing NBA defenses will have to respect Okafor’s post-up game.
Also, don’t let anyone fool you into thinking that Okafor and his post-up heavy offensive game won’t fit into the modern NBA. The post-up is still very valuable and useful, and as long as Okafor remains as effective as he was from the block in the league, NBA teams will still carve out possessions to throw him the ball in the paint.
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With the shot charts as similar as they are, we have to broaden the scope of this analysis to look at two more areas of importance on the offensive end: free throw shooting and passing.
First, passing.
Towns is an elite passer. He has the ability to survey the defense, find the open man and make the right decision. In today’s NBA, which features complicated defensive schemes that help off of shooters in corners, big men who are able to both survey the defense and make crisp passes to shooters are incredibly valuable.
Okafor faced more double teams at Duke and had more opportunities to find open shooters, yet his assist rate lagged behind Towns’. Nevertheless, he’s proven the ability to make the right decision out of the post. Thanks to his gargantuan hands, Okafor can rifle a pass in a split-second to shooters camping on the wings, making the impossible look easy.
For now, though, point to Towns. He projects to be the better passer in the long-run.
As far as free throw shooting goes, Towns also pulls away. Okafor was a bad shooter from the charity stripe at Duke, nailing just 51 percent of his shots. Towns was much better, hitting 81.3 percent of his free throws. I’m already worried about the potential “Hack-an-Okafor” approach NBA teams might take in the closing minutes of tight games.
Who would you draft?
I’m taking Towns because I like his offensive game more. He is better across more categories than Okafor, and when you factor in motor and defense, he becomes the clear choice.
On defense, Okafor is perceived to be a potential liability, especially when he has to get his feet moving guarding pick and rolls. Towns is more springy and can develop into an asset, adding an understanding of NBA defenses and help to his already above average rim protection skills.
For those reasons, Towns is the ideal fit for Minnesota at No. 1. As for what happens in the real draft, though, you will have to wait until tonight to see what happens.
All charts from Shot Analytics.