NASCAR Fantasy Picks for Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma

NASCAR Fantasy Picks for Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma for DraftKings and other Fantasy Formats

Welcome back to FantasyCPR’s coverage of the 2015 Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma to be held on Sunday, June 28th. Whether you are a fantasy racing player or just a NASCAR fan, let us be your one stop shop for all the information you need to prepare you for NASCAR races in the 2015 season. Go to our Fantasy NASCAR Hub at https://fansided.com/category/nascar-fantasy/ and bookmark it!

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If you haven’t already, check out our DraftKings Toyota/Save Mart 350 Fantasy Preview and Toyota/Save Mart 350 Fantasy Analysis. This will give you insight in how you should make your selections for the race which is based on track and race history as well as the initial practices. Also, it has resources to help fantasy players familiarize themselves with the new DraftKings Daily NASCAR contests and scoring.

Before we get to my picks, let’s take a look at the field!

Next: The Field: Qualifying Order with DraftKings Salaries

Also, if you are new to these games, please refer to the Daily Fantasy NASCAR Strategy Guide by DraftKings that breaks down the specific rules and point calculations that govern these contests.

Race Entrants in Qualifying Order w/ DraftKings Salaries

1. #47 AJ Allmendinger, Kingsford Charcoal Chevrolet ($8,300)
2. #41 Kurt Busch, Haas Automation Chevrolet ($12,400)
3. #20 Matt Kenseth, Dollar General Toyota ($10,900)
4. #42 Kyle Larson, Viva Vantage Chevrolet ($10,000)
5. #24 Jeff Gordon, AARP Chevrolet ($11,300)
6. #15 Clint Bowyer, 5-hour Energy Toyota ($8,900)
7. #14 Tony Stewart, Mobil 1/Bass Pro Shops Chevrolet ($9,400)
8. #13 Casey Mears GEICO Chevrolet ($7,600)
9. #55 David Ragan, Aaron’s Dream Machine Toyota ($8,600)
10. #2 Brad Keselowski, Alliance Truck Parts Ford ($11,500)
11. #18 Kyle Busch, M&M’s Crispy Toyota ($10,700)
12. #78 Martin Truex Jr., Furniture Row Chevrolet ($11,200)
13. #48 Jimmie Johnson, LOWE’S PRO SERVICES Chevrolet ($13,100)
14. #19 Carl Edwards, Stanley Toyota ($10,500)
15. #11 Denny Hamlin, FedEx Freight Toyota ($11,000)
16. #31 Ryan Newman, WIX Filters Chevrolet ($9,600)
17. #4 Kevin Harvick Folds of Honor/Outback Chevrolet ($13,900)
18. #1 Jamie McMurray, CESSNA Chevrolet ($10,100)
19. #22 Joey Logano, Shell Pennzoil Ford ($11,300)
20. #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr., Microsoft Chevrolet ($11,900)
21. #10 Danica Patrick, GoDaddy Chevrolet ($8,200)
22.  #16 Greg Biffle, Ortho Ford ($9,200)
23.  #95 Michael McDowell, KLOVE Radio Ford ($7,300)
24.  #9 Sam Hornish Jr., Jacob Companies Ford ($7,600)
25.  #43 Aric Almirola, Nathans Famous Ford ($8,200)
26. #5 Kasey Kahne, Great Clips Chevrolet ($10,700)
27. #51 Justin Allgaier, Brandt Chevrolet ($7,400)
28. #38 David Gilliland, Love’s Travel Stops Ford ($7,400)
29.  #35 Cole Whitt, Uponor Ford ($7,100)
30.  #83 Matt DiBenedetto, Burger King Toyota ($7,200)
31. #6 Trevor Bayne, AdvoCare Ford ($7,800)
32. #27 Paul Menard, Richmond/Menards Chevrolet ($9,200)
33. #32 Boris Said, Loss Prevention Group Ford (No Salary Listed)
34. #23 J.J. Yeley, Dr. Pepper Toyota ($7,200)
35. #34 Justin Marks, Dockside Logistics Ford (No Salary Listed)
36. #33 Alex Kennedy, Media Cast Chevrolet ($7,500)
37.  #3 Austin Dillon, Dow Chevrolet ($8,800)
38.  #98 Josh Wise, Dogecoin Ford ($7,200)
39.  #40 Landon Cassill, TBA Chevrolet ($7,300)
40.  #17 Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Fastenal Ford ($8,100)
41. #7 Alex Bowman, Golden Corral Chevrolet ($7,100)
42. #46 Michael Annett, Bene-fit Chevrolet ($7,100)
43.  #26 Jeb Burton, Maxim Fantasy Sports Toyota ($7,100)

Next: High Priced Drivers - $11,000 and up

Jun 13, 2015; Brooklyn, MI, USA; Sprint Cup Series driver Martin Truex Jr. (78)

High: $11,100 and up

Martin Truex Jr., #78 Furniture Row Chevrolet for $11,200 (Qualified 12^th): Truex Jr. is a very good road course racer and won here in 2013. He looked very comfortable on Friday and Saturday and had the 5th fastest lap in the 2nd practice. Truex and the #78 team has been fast all year regardless of the track (Top 10s in all but one race in 2015) and his 12th starting position gives him opportunity to pick up valuable fantasy points.

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Beyond the Flag

Honorable Mention: Jimmie Johnson, #48 LOWE’S PRO SERVICES Chevrolet for $13,100 (Qualified 13^th): Johnson and the #48 has looked solid all weekend and is around a 12:1 shot to win here. He is 4th among active drivers at Sonoma in both Driver Rating (98.8) and average finishing position (12.9). Chevrolet has been dominant this season and has 4 of the Top 5 qualifiers for this race. There’s no reason to think that Johnson can’t join in the fun and be successful tomorrow. Plus, the 13th spot also is a fantasy advantage that counter-balances his price-tag.

Stay Away: Brad Keselowski, #2 Alliance Truck Parts Ford for $11,500 (Qualified 10^th): Keselowski’s aggressive driving style is not a good fit at Sonoma – his average finish in 5 races there is 16.7 and his best finish was 10th in 2011. Additionally, he was no better than 24th in either of the practice sessions. At this salary, it is best to pass on Brad this week.

Non-DraftKings Fantasy Picks: Kurt Busch, #41 Haas Automation Chevrolet (Qualified 2nd) & Jeff Gordon, #24 AARP Chevrolet (Qualified 5th). NOTE: These are drivers with a good chance for success in the race and in standard fantasy formats but are not recommended for DK due its scoring/salary system. Justification for these picks can be found in the Toyota/Save Mart 350 Fantasy Analysis:

Next: Medium-High Priced Drivers - $10,000 to $10,900

Jun 14, 2015; Brooklyn, MI, USA; Sprint Cup Series driver Kyle Busch (18) during the Quicken Loans 400 at Michigan International Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

Medium-High: $10,000 to $10,900

Kyle Busch, #18 M&M’s Crispy Toyota for $10,700 (Qualified 11^th): Kyle Busch has won here (2008) and desperately needs a win and/or a good finish to keep his Chase chances alive. He owns 50 Fastest Laps run at Sonoma, which is sixth-most of active drivers. Kyle had the best lap in the 2nd qualifying session and has a very reasonable salary here. Take him from the 6th row and expect 50+ FPs.

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Honorable Mention: Carl Edwards, #19 Stanley Toyota for $10,500 (Qualified 14^th):  Edwards won here last year has looked decent all weekend with no worse than a 14th in any of the sessions. He is 6th among active drivers at Sonoma in Driver Rating (90.1) and 7th in average finishing position (14.1). We’ll see if his success at Sonoma continues now that he’s in a Gibbs Toyota, but at an affordable price and decent starting position this weekend he’s worth a flyer.

Stay Away: Matt Kenseth, #20 Dollar General Toyota for $10,900 (Qualified 3^rd): To say that Kenseth is not good at Sonoma is an understatement. In 15 career starts he only has one Top 10 (8th in 2008) and has a 20.7 average finish. He did have a great qualifying lap (3rd) after finishing 27th and 22nd in practice, but that starting position is a detriment in DK, especially for a driver and car that is a 30:1 shot to win.

Next: Medium-Low Priced Drivers - $8,200 to $9,600

May 31, 2015; Dover, DE, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Ryan Newman (31) races during the FedEx 400 benefiting Autism Speaks at Dover International Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O

Medium-Low: $8,200 to $9,600

Ryan Newman, #31 WIX Filters Chevrolet for $9,600 (Qualified 16^th): Newman is a very solid road course racer with a 2nd place finish here in 2006. He has an average finish here of 12th in 13 career starts and has only finished outside the Top 20 once. He’s not spectacular here but is very steady and that is all you need at this salary and starting position. Currently sitting in the last chase spot at 16th, he can’t afford  a bad finish so expect Newman to drive conservatively and ending up in or near the Top 10. 

Honorable Mention: AJ Allmendinger, #47 Kingsford Charcoal Chevrolet for $8,300 (Qualified 1^st): Allmendinger is the modern version of a road-course ringer, winning his way into the Chase last year at Watkins Glen. He has also been good at Sonoma with four Top 13 finishes in his last 5 races here. He has been extremely sharp this weekend, winning the pole and is now at 8:1 odds to win. While his $8,300 is a great price, he will have extremely high ownership and his #1 starting position is limiting his potential fantasy return on investment, thus explaining his honorable mention status.

Stay Away: David Ragan, #55 Aaron’s Dream Machine Toyota for $8,600 (Qualified 9th): Ragan has a best 24th finish in 8 Cup races here at Sonoma. He is in a better car this year in the #55 Toyota, but Brian Vickers had not been able to crack the Top 12 at Sonoma in this car in the last 2 races here. Even at the $8,600 price tag, stay clear of Ragan, who is a mediocre 24th in the Sprint Cup standings.

Non-DraftKings Fantasy Pick: Clint Bowyer, #15 5-hour Energy Toyota (Qualified 6^th). NOTE: This driver has a good chance for success in the race and in standard fantasy formats but is not recommended for DK due its scoring/salary system. Justification for this pick can be found in the Toyota/Save Mart 350 Fantasy Analysis:

Next: Low Priced Drivers - $7,900 and below

May 15, 2015; Concord, NC, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (17) races during the Sprint Showdown at Charlotte Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports

Low: $7,900 and below

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Beyond the Flag

Sam Hornish Jr., #9 Jacob Companies Ford for $7,600 (Qualified 24th): Hornish Jr. is an accomplished road course racer and 2006 Indy Car Champion. He holds a Top 5 road course Sprint Cup finish (2012 Watkins Glen). Hornish Jr. is now driving for the team/car which Marcos Ambrose had huge success with at Sonoma, winning in 2012 and earning 4 straight top 10s.  Although only qualifying 24th, Hornish Jr. had the 3rd and 8th fastest lap in the first and second practices, respectively. He has a car that appears to be able to crack into the Top 20 with any luck and at this price (and starting position) warrants serious consideration.

Honorable Mention: Ricky Stenhouse Jr., #17 Fastenal Ford for $8,100 (Qualified 40th): The 3rd year driver has an average road course finish of 24th over his Cup career. He is also driving for a team that won this race in 2014. However, this pick is mostly about the potential place and pass differential points that Stenhouse Jr. can pick up here. Despite the poor qualifying effort, the #17 had a respectable 14th fastest lap in the first qualifying session.

Good Luck!

Need help with your daily or season-long fantasy NASCAR contests? Contact me on Twitter @Rich_Pelesky and I will give you the guidance you need to make the best fantasy decisions.

Next: Toyota/Save Mart 350 Fantasy Recap