Toyota/Save Mart 350 Fantasy NASCAR Picks and Analysis for DraftKings

Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Fantasy Analysis

Welcome back to FantasyCPR’s coverage of the 2015 Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma to be held on Sunday, June 28th. Whether you are a fantasy racing player or just a NASCAR fan, let us be your one stop shop for all the information you need to prepare you for NASCAR races in the 2015 season. Go to our Fantasy NASCAR Hub at https://fansided.com/category/nascar-fantasy/ and bookmark it!

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Our weekly coverage will typically consist of 4 articles a week: 1) A fantasy recap from the previous race that includes driver scores and our prediction results; 2) A race preview mid-week prior to the race; 3) A comprehensive fantasy analysis after the first practice & qualifying that will include the starting grid; and 4) Our expert driver picks released after the final practice. To stay updated and get the posts as they are published, bookmark our site as well as follow us on Twitter!

Our fantasy coverage and predictions are unique compared to other outlets as it takes in the cars ‘ and drivers’ current performance over the weekend instead of just their historical statistics coming in. For DraftKings, this is crucial as starting position and in-race performance are important factors in fantasy scoring. This approach (vice releasing driver picks early in the week) leads to more accurate and successful predictions as you can see in our weekly Fantasy Recaps.

NOTE: The coverage this week is slightly different since Qualifying is not until Saturday and there is no practice session after Qualifying.

Next: The Field: Race Entrants with DraftKings Salaries

Race Entrants in order of DraftKings Salary

#4 Kevin Harvick Folds of Honor/Outback Chevrolet ($13,900)
#48 Jimmie Johnson, LOWE’S PRO SERVICES Chevrolet ($13,100)
#41 Kurt Busch, Haas Automation Chevrolet ($12,400)
#88 Dale Earnhardt Jr., Microsoft Chevrolet ($11,900)
#2 Brad Keselowski, Alliance Truck Parts Ford ($11,500)
#24 Jeff Gordon, AARP Chevrolet ($11,300)
#22 Joey Logano, Shell Pennzoil Ford ($11,300)
#78 Martin Truex Jr., Furniture Row Chevrolet ($11,200)
#11 Denny Hamlin, FedEx Freight Toyota ($11,000)
#20 Matt Kenseth, Dollar General Toyota ($10,900)
#18 Kyle Busch, M&M’s Crispy Toyota ($10,700)
#5 Kasey Kahne, Great Clips Chevrolet ($10,700)
#19 Carl Edwards, Stanley Toyota ($10,500)
#1 Jamie McMurray, CESSNA Chevrolet ($10,100)
#42 Kyle Larson, Viva Vantage Chevrolet ($10,000)
#31 Ryan Newman, WIX Filters Chevrolet ($9,600)
#14 Tony Stewart, Mobil 1/Bass Pro Shops Chevrolet ($9,400)
#16 Greg Biffle, Ortho Ford ($9,200)
#27 Paul Menard, Richmond/Menards Chevrolet ($9,200)
#15 Clint Bowyer, 5-hour Energy Toyota ($8,900)
#3 Austin Dillon, Dow Chevy ($8,800)
#55 David Ragan, Aaron’s Dream Machine Toyota ($8,600)
#47 AJ Allmendinger, Kingsford Charcoal Chevrolet ($8,300)
#43 Aric Almirola, Nathans Famous Ford ($8,200)
#10 Danica Patrick, GoDaddy Chevrolet ($8,200)
#17 Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Fastenal Ford ($8,100)
#6 Trevor Bayne, AdvoCare Ford ($7,800)
#13 Casey Mears GEICO Chevrolet ($7,600)
#9 Sam Hornish Jr., Jacob Companies Ford ($7,600)
#33 Alex Kennedy, Media Cast Chevrolet ($7,500)
#51 Justin Allgaier, Brandt Chevrolet ($7,400)
#38 David Gilliland, Love’s Travel Stops Ford ($7,400)
#40 Landon Cassill, TBA Chevrolet ($7,300)
#95 Michael McDowell, KLOVE Radio Ford ($7,300)
#23 J.J. Yeley, Dr. Pepper ($7,200)
#98 Josh Wise, Dogecoin Ford ($7,200)
#83 Matt DiBenedetto, Burger King Toyota ($7,200)
#46 Michael Annett, Bene-fit Chevrolet ($7,100)
#35 Cole Whitt, Uponor Ford ($7,100)
#26 Jeb Burton, Maxim Fantasy Sports Toyota ($7,100)
#7 Alex Bowman, Golden Corral Chevrolet ($7,100)
#62 Brendan Gaughan, TBA Chevrolet ($7,000)
#32 Boris Said, Loss Prevention Group Ford (No Salary Listed)
#34 Justin Marks, Dockside Logistics Ford (No Salary Listed)

Next: Toyota/Save Mart 350 Fantasy Strategy

Toyota/Save Mart 350/Sonoma Fantasy Strategy: Although my race picks will not be released until after the Qualifying sessions on Saturday, here is a sneak peek at some of the trends that will factor into my selections. This also gives fantasy players some foundations to base their own fantasy research on.

More from FanSided

1. This race is on a 10-turn, 1.99-mile road course (110 laps, 218.9 miles) at Sonoma, formerly known as Sears Point and Infineon Raceway.

2. The Sonoma Raceway road course features more than 160 feet of elevation change from its highest to lowest points. The highest point at Turn 3a reaches 174 feet, while the lowest point at Turn 10 is just 14 feet.

3. Strongly consider drivers that have a good history on road courses in NASCAR and other racing circuits. DraftKings is keeping salaries relatively consistent with salaries on conventional racetracks so it may be wise to target lower-priced drivers that are road-course specialists.

4. However, prioritize results at Sonoma over Watkins Glen as they are completely different courses. Some drivers have done well on one and not the other, a prime example being Brad Keslowski who is good at Watkins Glen (which drives like a Super Speedway) but has not been good at Sonoma which races more like a Short Track.

5. Leaders in average finish among drivers with 9+ starts: 1) Jeff Gordon (7.9), Clint Bowyer (9.2), Tony Stewart (12.4), Jimmy Johnson (12.9), and Ryan Newman (12.9).

6. Ten different drivers have won the last 10 races, with Carl Edwards winning last year in the #99 Ford.

7. Only two current drivers have multiple wins here at Sonoma, with Jeff Gordon having five wins and Tony Stewart getting two.

8. The Toyota/Save Mart 350 can turn into a fuel mile strategy race. Look for several teams to short pit at the beginning of the race. 5 of the last 8 winners have pitted 3 times, but last year’s winner pitted only twice.

9. There is only one “Road Course Ringer” entered in the race, Boris Said in the #32 car. Said’s best road course finish in the past 3 years is 18^th in the 2013 Sonoma race.

10. Group Qualifying is in effect and will consist of two elimination rounds to determine the starting lineup.

Next: Preliminary Picks prior to Qualifying

Pre-Qualifying Favorites: As we know, qualify order is important in DraftKings scoring, but here are my favorites based solely on historical data. The following picks were shared on Racing Times Live on Thursday and my complete Sonoma Fantasy Preview can be heard at http://www.victorylaneradio.com/

#41 Kurt Busch ($12,400): Won in 2011 here; Series-best Driver Rating of 106.5.

#24 Jeff Gordon ($11,300): Winningest Cup Driver (5) here; 9 straight top-10s at Sonoma.

#15 Clint Bowyer ($8,900): One win (2012), six Top 5 finishes; 7 of last 8 races in the Top Ten.

#47 AJ Allmendinger ($8,300): Won Watkins Glen in 2014; has 4 top 13s at Sonoma in last his 5 races here.

#9 Sam Hornish Jr., ($7,600): 2006 Indy Series Champion; Ambrose and the #9 Richard Petty Ford had done really well here, winning in 2012 and getting 4 straight top 10s.

I will release my final DraftKings Picks on Saturday after Qualifying.

Next: General NASCAR Strategy for DraftKings Contests

General DraftKings Strategy: The next thing to consider while filling out your teams is the DraftKings scoring system. DraftKings owners will draft a team of 5 drivers with a $50,000 Salary Cap. Scoring will be based on several factors including a driver’s Finishing Position, Place Differential, Fastest Laps, Laps Led, and Pass Differential. Please refer to the Daily Fantasy NASCAR Strategy Guide by DraftKings that breaks down the specific rules and point calculations that govern these contests.

More from DraftKings

The salaries used are set weekly for each contest before qualifying and practice and are based on the overall strength of each driver/team/car for that particular race. The calculations that DraftKings use to determine drivers’ salaries are based on a driver’s ability to score fantasy points and as such consider all the five aforementioned factors. Since NASCAR is a new Daily Fantasy game, DraftKings has made it easier for players to understand the scoring system by listing a driver’s Fantasy Points Per Race (FPPR) next to a driver’s salary that shows a driver’s performance to date (including 2015 races that did not have DK contests). The following are some of the factors that determine a driver’s salary and something that a fantasy player should look at:

A Driver and/or Team’s current level of speed and performance this season.
A Driver and/or Team’s history at that specific track and race.
A Driver and/or Team’s history at similar tracks and races.

Next: Post-Practice NASCAR Strategy Primer

Jun 14, 2015; Brooklyn, MI, USA; Sprint Cup Series driver Kurt Busch (41) during the Quicken Loans 400 at Michigan International Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

Because the DraftKings salaries are set prior to qualifying and practice, there are many things that can change a driver’s relative fantasy value before the race starts. Some things to consider:

Qualifying and practice speed are a good (but not the only) indicator of a driver’s projected performance and factor largely in a driver’s potential to maximize points in the Finish Position, Fastest Laps, and Laps Led categories.
The DraftKings points system is unique and emphasizes both in-race performance as well as finishing position. So it is paramount to target at least some drivers that start further back in the field yet can compete as a top-performing car. This will get you points in the Place Differential and Pass Differential categories.
Considering a Driver’s Pit Crew proficiency is also important as drivers with fast cars can earn more points in the Pass Differential category during green flag racing due to lost track position during pit stops.

We will be back on Saturday evening with our Toyota/Save Mart 350 Fantasy Picks!

If you haven’t joined DraftKings yet and want to play in their exciting contests, use this link to sign up and you will earn a bonus with a minimum deposit of just $5. DraftKings will even match your initial deposit up to $600.

Next: UPDATED Toyota/Save Mart 350 Fantasy Picks