Antonio Gates is Suspended; Can Ladarius Green Break out?

There are a lot of “eventually” scenarios that fantasy experts bring up year after year even though it hasn’t worked out yet. Frank Gore is going to get too old, eventually. Rueben Randle is going to break out, eventually. Mike Wallace will be a deep threat, eventually. Percy Harvin will have a good game, eventually.

While I doubt either of these will happen, another scenario actually has a strong chance of coming true. Ladarius Green‘s long-awaited ascent to the number one tight end for the San Diego Chargers could finally happen now that Antonio Gates is forced to sit for the first four games of the season.

Ladarius Green has two amazing things going for him: the role is great and he’s shown great promise in the past. In terms of the role, you don’t need to look further than Antonio Gates‘ season stats to see what Green’s ceiling is in the Chargers offense. Rivers loves throwing it to his tight ends, and he doesn’t have much of a choice because San Diego rarely has a wide receiver that would be a number one on basically any other team. Keenan Allen appeared to have a chance to be just that if you only looked at his fantasy output. But a closer look at where he got his points from showed that he was more touchdown dependent than sustainable for any wide receiver, and his fall from grace in 2015 proved that to be the case.

Jan 5, 2014; Cincinnati, OH, USA; San Diego Chargers tight end Ladarius Green (89) catches a pass in the end zone for a touchdown while being defended by Cincinnati Bengals defensive back Chris Crocker (32) during third quarter of the AFC wild card playoff football game at Paul Brown Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

Ladarius Green has never really had the opportunity to be the focal point of the offense. In 2012, his rookie year, he only played in four games. In his sophomore year he saw more playing time and caught 17 balls for 3 touchdowns and averaged 22.1 YPR, highest on the team. However, he ended that season behind six players, including two RBs, in receptions (more on that later). Last year, Ladarius Green faded completely into the background as Antonio Gates increased his catch percentage and jumped up from 4 touchdowns to 12. Gates is 35 now, and will presumably be off performance enhancing drugs that may have (I say that in the most speculative way) helped him maintain his success at such an old age. If Ladarius Green is able to prove his worth as the starting tight end, Gates might not be able to catch up.

While Ladarius Green has incredible potential to break out, the run game and Antonio Gates are two big reasons to still be a little apprehensive. Green isn’t the only Charger with break-out potential; rookie running back Melvin Gordon can take over the lead back role and become the focal point of the offense. And Danny Woodhead, running-back-receiver extraordinaire is healthy again and will certainly take a good number of targets. With all the attention being paid to the backfield, how much of the offensive production can Green get his hands on? This question is definitely worth considering before you determine how much you’re willing to spend on him on draft day.

We will probably never know the true reason of Antonio Gates suspension. All we do know is that last year, as a 34-year-old, Gates scored 12 touchdowns and didn’t give the Chargers any reason to include Green in the offense. How can Gates be projected to have a steep drop off? Green might need to be Gronk-like to usurp Gates considering Rivers has trusted Gates as a go-to option for many years. And I can’t imagine him being quite that good.

Even with the suspension, I doubt fantasy experts and players are going to jump at the chance of getting Ladarius Green in earlier rounds of drafts. If you don’t grab Gronk, Kelce, or Graham, taking Green much later in the draft for four games and being prepared to replace him might be the best way to go in redraft leagues. He could have a ton of value for those first four weeks in any format. The Chargers face the Lions, Bengals, Vikings, and Browns, none of which are top passing defenses, especially against the tight end (although the Vikings’ defense might make a huge jump). But if his value rises significantly as the draft season approaches, you may want to pass on him. No tight end is a sure thing after the top three, and even they have question marks. If Green is being overvalued, it’s best to just look to streaming elsewhere.

Next: 5 Good Late Round RB Picks

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