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Quaker State 400 Fantasy NASCAR Picks and Analysis for DraftKings

By Rich Pelesky

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Jun 28, 2014; Sparta, KY, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Brad Keselowski (2) celebrates in victory lane after winning the Quaker State 400 at Kentucky Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

Quaker State 400 at Kentucky Fantasy NASCAR Analysis

Welcome back to FantasyCPR’s coverage of the 2015 Quaker State 400 at Kentucky Speedway to be held on Saturday evening, July 11th with a Green Flag time of approx. 7:46 p.m. EST. Whether you are a fantasy racing player or just a NASCAR fan, let us be your one stop shop for all the information you need to prepare you for NASCAR races in the 2015 season. Go to our Fantasy NASCAR Hub at https://fansided.com/category/nascar-fantasy/ and bookmark it!

SEE ALSO: Quaker State 400 Preview

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    • Our weekly coverage will typically consist of 4 articles a week: 1) A fantasy recap from the previous race that includes driver scores and our prediction results; 2) A race preview mid-week prior to the race; 3) A comprehensive fantasy analysis and preliminary picks; and 4) Our final driver picks released after qualifying. To stay updated and get the posts as they are published, bookmark our site as well as follow us on Twitter!

    Our fantasy coverage and predictions are unique compared to other outlets as it takes in the cars’ and drivers’ current performance over the weekend instead of just their historical statistics coming in. For DraftKings, this is crucial as starting position and in-race performance are important factors in fantasy scoring. This approach (vice releasing driver picks early in the week like most sources do) leads to more accurate and successful predictions as you can see in our weekly Fantasy Recaps.

    NOTE: The coverage this week is slightly different from usual since both practices and qualifying are on Friday and there is no practice session after qualifying.

    Next: The Field: Race Entrants with DraftKings Salaries

    Jun 28, 2014; Sparta, KY, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series drivers make their way out of turn four during the Quaker State 400 at Kentucky Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

    Race Entrants in order of DraftKings Salary

    NOTE: Salary difference from last race in parentheses

    1. #4 Kevin Harvick, Budweiser/Jimmy John’s  Chevrolet for $13,900 (+$2,300)
    2. #48 Jimmie Johnson, LOWE’S PRO SERVICES Chevrolet for $13,100 (+$1,300)
    3. #78 Martin Truex Jr., Furniture Row/Visser Precision Chevrolet for $13,000 (+$1,700)
    4. #41 Kurt Busch, Haas Automation Chevrolet for $12,200 (+$800)
    5. #2 Brad Keselowski, Miller Lite Ford for $12,100 (+$1,200)
    6. #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr., Nationwide Chevrolet for $11,500 (-$800)
    7. #22 Joey Logano, Shell Pennzoil/Auto-Trader Ford for $11,400 (+$200)
    8. #20 Matt Kenseth, Dollar General Toyota for $11,300 (+$100)
    9. #18 Kyle Busch, M&M’s Crispy Toyota for $10,800 (-)
    10. #24 Jeff Gordon, AARP MEMBER ADVANTAGES Chevrolet for $11,600 (-$100)
    11. #5 Kasey Kahne, LiftMaster Chevrolet for $10,500 (-$800)
    12. #19 Carl Edwards, COMCAST MINIONS Toyota for $10,400 (-$300)
    13. #11 Denny Hamlin, FedEx Office Toyota for $10,100 (-$1000)
    14. #42 Kyle Larson, Target Chevrolet for $9,800 (-)
    15. #1 Jamie McMurray, CESSNA Chevrolet for $9,500 (-$700)
    16. #31 Ryan Newman, Caterpillar Chevrolet for $9,300 (-$400)
    17. #14 Tony Stewart, Rush Trucking Chevrolet for $9,000 (-$1,300)
    18. #16 Greg Biffle, Ortho Ford Fusion for $8,900 (-$800)
    19. #27 Paul Menard, Quaker State/Menards Chevrolet for $8,800  (-$700)
    20. #15 Clint Bowyer, Hughes General Contractors Toyota for $8,600 (-$1,500)
    21. #6 Trevor Bayne, AdvoCare Ford Fusion for $8,600 (-)
    22. #3 Austin Dillon, Dow – Styrofoam Chevrolet for $8,500 (-$1,100)
    23. #55 David Ragan, Aaron’s Dream Machine Toyota for $8,100 (-$1,500)
    24. #43 Aric Almirola, Smithfield Ford for $7,900 (-$1,300)
    25. #47 AJ Allmendinger, Kroger/Scott Products Chevrolet for $7,800 (-$1,500)
    26. #9 Sam Hornish Jr., TBA Ford for $7,800 (-$100)
    27. #10 Danica Patrick, GoDaddy Chevrolet for $7,700 (-$1,500)
    28.  #17 Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Fifth Third Bank Ford Fusion for $7,600 (-$1,500)
    29.  #13 Casey Mears GEICO Chevrolet SS for $7,500 (-$1,200)
    30.  #21 Ryan Blaney, Snap-On Tools Ford for $7,500 (-$1,500)
    31.  #38 David Gilliland, Lowe’s Travel. Stops Ford for $7,400 (-$300)
    32.  #51 Justin Allgaier, Fraternal Order of Eagles Chevrolet for $7,300 (-$200)
    33.   #98 Josh Wise, TBA Ford for $7,300 (+$100)
    34.  #40 Landon Cassill, CRC Brakleen Chevrolet for $7,300 (-$100)
    35.  #83 Matt DiBenedetto, Anest Iwata Toyota for $7,300 (-$100)
    36.  #23 J.J. Yeley, TraqGear-Coolshirt Toyota for $7,200 (-$100)
    37. #95 Michael McDowell, Thrivent Financial Ford for $7,200 (+$200)
    38.  #32 Joey Gase, C&J Energy Services Ford for $7,200 (N/A)
    39.  #33 Alex Kennedy, TBA Chrevolet for $7,100 (N/A)
    40.  #35 Cole Whitt, Kentucky Fried Chicken Ford for $7,100 (-$200)
    41. #7 Alex Bowman, Advance Auto Parts Chevrolet for $7,100 (-)
    42.  #62 Brendan Gaughan, TBA Chevrolet for $7,000 (-)
    43.  #46 Michael Annett, Pilot Flying J Chevrolet for $7,000 (-)
    44.  #26 Jeb Burton, Maxim Fantasy Sports Toyota for $7,000 (-$200)
    45.  #34 Brett Moffitt, Dockside Logistics for $6,900 (-$200)
    46. #30 Jeff Green, Curtis Key Plumbing Chevrolet (No Salary Listed) (N/A)
    47. #32 Will Kimmel III, CorvetteParts.net Ford for $7,200 (No Salary Listed) (N/A)

    Next: Quaker State 400 Fantasy Strategy

    Jun 28, 2014; Sparta, KY, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Brad Keselowski (2) celebrates in victory lane after winning the Quaker State 400 at Kentucky Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

    Quaker State 400/Kentucky Fantasy Strategy: Although my race picks will not be released until after the Qualifying session on Saturday, here is a sneak peek at some of the trends that will factor into my selections. This also gives fantasy players some foundations to base their own fantasy research on.

    More from FanSided

    1. This race is on 4-turn, 1.5 mile, paved Tri-Oval track (267 laps, 400 miles) at Kentucky Speedway.

    2. Strongly consider drivers that have a good history on intermediate (1.5 mile) tracks. DraftKings is keeping salaries this week relatively consistent with salaries on previous intermediate tracks in 2015 prior to the races at unique tracks such as Sonoma and Daytona.

    3. NASCAR has a Cup race once a year at Kentucky. Take special note of how drivers and teams did last year in the Quaker State 400 and the other Cup races here that started in 2011.

    4. However, keep in mind that a new aero package would be used for the 2015 race. The changes include a smaller rear spoiler and other adjustments that will significantly reduce aerodynamic downforce.

    5. Leaders in average finish among active drivers: Kyle Busch (4.5), Matt Kenseth (4.5), Jimmy Johnson (7.0), Jeff Gordon (7.25), and Kasey Kahne (8.5).

    5. This track and race produce dominant cars. In each of the 4 Cup races here a car has led over 100 laps.

    6. Qualifying speed and starting position has proven worthwhile as 2 of the 4 winners have started on the front row while 3 of the 4 winners qualified in the Top 10.

    7. Toyota has won 2 of the 4 Kentucky races and Bred Keslowski (with Ford and Dodge) has the other two wins.

    8. The race has been dominated by the big, most successful NASCAR teams. A top 20 by a single car and/or middle of the pack team is an accomplishment.

    Next: Preliminary Fantasy Picks prior to Qualifying

    Jun 28, 2014; Sparta, KY, USA; Crew members for NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Jimmie Johnson (48) pulls out of pit row during the Quaker State 400 at Kentucky Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

    My Pre-Qualifying Favorites: As we know, qualify order is extremely important in DraftKings scoring, but here are my favorites based solely on historical data.

    #48 Jimmie Johnson, LOWE’S PRO SERVICES Chevrolet for $13,100: He’s a dominant 1.5 mile track driver; Has 4 Top 10s in 4 races; Driver Rating is 116.6 (2nd).

    #18 Kyle Busch, M&M’s Crispy Toyota for $10,800: 1 win, 3 Top 5s, 4 Top 10s; Top Driver Rating (124.3) and average Running Position (5.27) among entrants.

    #5 Kasey Kahne, LiftMaster Chevrolet for $10,500: 5th highest average finish (8.5) and Driver Rating (98.9) among entrants; 145 Quality Passes (2nd)

    #9 Sam Hornish Jr., TBA Ford for $7,800: Top 10s in his only 2 XFinity appearances at Kentucky; Ambrose and the #9 Ford had relatively good success here with a 14.75 average finish in 4 races, 13th among active drivers.

    #51 Justin Allgaier, Fraternal Order of Eagles Chevrolet for $7,300: Finished 24th (started 28th) in this race last year; the #51 has an average Cup finish of 21.5 in 4 races at Kentucky.

    I will release my final DraftKings Picks on Saturday after Qualifying.

    Next: General NASCAR Strategy for DraftKings Contests

    Jul 6, 2015; Daytona Beach, FL, USA;

    NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Dale Earnhardt Jr. (88) leads Trevor Bayne (6), Paul Menard (27) and Clint Bowyer (15) during the Coke Zero 400 at Daytona International Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

    General DraftKings Strategy: The next thing to consider while filling out your teams is the DraftKings scoring system. DraftKings owners will draft a team of 5 drivers with a $50,000 Salary Cap. Scoring will be based on several factors including a driver’s Finishing Position, Place Differential, Fastest Laps, Laps Led, and Pass Differential. Please refer to the Daily Fantasy NASCAR Strategy Guide by DraftKings that breaks down the specific rules and calculations that govern these contests.

    More from DraftKings

    The salaries used are set weekly for each contest before qualifying and practice and are based on the overall strength of each driver/team/car for that particular race. The calculations that DraftKings use to determine drivers’ salaries are based on a driver’s ability to score fantasy points and as such consider all the five aforementioned factors. Since NASCAR is a new Daily Fantasy game, DraftKings has made it easier for players to understand the scoring system by listing a driver’s Fantasy Points Per Race (FPPR) next to a driver’s salary that shows a driver’s performance to date (including 2015 races that did not have DK contests). The following are some of the factors that determine a driver’s salary and something that a fantasy player should look at:

    1. A Driver and/or Team’s current level of speed and performance this season.
    2. A Driver and/or Team’s history at that specific track and race.
    3. A Driver and/or Team’s history at similar tracks and races.

    Next: Why Wait Until After Practice/Qualifying to Make Picks?

    Jun 28, 2014; Sparta, KY, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series drivers during the Quaker State 400 at Kentucky Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

    Because the DraftKings salaries are set prior to qualifying and practice, there are many things that can change a driver’s relative fantasy value before the race starts. Some things to consider:

    1. Qualifying and practice speed are a good (but not the only) indicator of a driver’s projected performance and factor largely in a driver’s potential to maximize points in the Finish Position, Fastest Laps, and Laps Led categories.
    2. The DraftKings points system is unique and emphasizes both in-race performance as well as finishing position. So it is paramount to target at least some drivers that start further back in the field yet can compete as a top-performing car. This will get you points in the Place Differential and Pass Differential categories.
    3. Considering a Driver’s Pit Crew proficiency is also important as drivers with fast cars can earn more points in the Pass Differential category during green flag racing due to lost track position during pit stops.

    SEE MORE NASCAR COVERAGE: 5 Drivers to Watch Down the Stretch

    We will be back on Saturday evening with our Coke Zero 400 Fantasy Picks!

    If you haven’t joined DraftKings yet and want to play in their exciting contests, use this direct DraftKings Link to sign up and you will earn a free $20 cash contest entry in the PGA Millionaire Maker on July 16th with a minimum deposit of just $5.  DraftKings will even match your initial deposit up to $600 – just click “Sign Up”!

    Next: 2015 Quaker State 400 Fantasy Preview