The Indianapolis Colts are gunning for the Super Bowl. With Andrew Luck at the controls and a solid free agency led by the acquisitions of receiver Andre Johnson and running back Frank Gore, times could be glorious in Naptown.
However, trouble could be right around the corner for general manager Ryan Grigson, as Gregg Rosenthal points out on NFL.com.
Indianapolis has $31.92 million in cap space for 2016, provided the cap spikes to its projection of $150 million, per Over The Cap. Throughout the National Football League, this is the 11th-best figure, putting the Colts in good position on the surface. Yet, some issues are on the horizon.
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Luck is a terrific player. In fact, he might be the best quarterback in the league. When his contract comes up, he will be the highest-paid player in the game. In 2016, the Colts will have a $16.1 million option on him, something that will either be picked up or start a negotiation on a long-term deal.
Typically speaking, Luck will likely play out that option with the Colts working on a new deal for him to start in 2017. The idea is the team is protected in case of an injury, and has the safety net of the franchise tag in case negotiations go sour. If this happens, the Colts would see their cap space shrink from $31.9 million to about $15.8 million. Factor in the draft class and the number moves to around $11 million.
Then we get to receiver T.Y. Hilton, who has been nothing but productive since being selected in 2012. Hilton has eclipsed 1,000 yards each of the last two seasons and is a tremendous deep threat, although he does have a tendency to drop the ball and can be ineffective on shorter routes. Does Grigson swallow hard and pay Hilton in the range of Randall Cobb, who earned a $10 million per year deal from the Green Bay Packers this offseason?
If so, the initial cap hit is likely around $4 million. Indianapolis would still need to make room for Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen, with the former ready to command a good chunk at the tight end spot. Needless to say, the Colts can logistically retain their players, but cuts will come and players won’t be added from the outside.
Other free-agents-to-be include corner Greg Toler, left tackle Anthony Castonzo and inside linebacker Jerrell Freeman.
Grigson’s wisest plan of action would be to sign Luck to an extension before next offseason. This way, the cap hit for his 2016 season is drastically reduced, allowing Indianapolis much more wiggle room to sign its own free agents. Otherwise, the franchise tag is likely out of the question (too expensive) while a few players will walk for being a cap casualty.
The Colts can figure this out and make everything work, but they need to get working on a plan.