May 28, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Eagles running back DeMarco Murray (29) talks with the media during OTA
Youād think weād learn our lesson.
Last summer, whenĀ we werenāt busy ānae naeingā orĀ dumping ice on our heads, we were consistently drafting the same five running backsāJamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, and Eddie Lacyāwith ourĀ first fiveĀ picks.
Meanwhile, fantasy MVP DeMarco Murray was slipping to the second round, andĀ those fortunateĀ enough to scoop up him were yellingĀ āHuaaaaahā onĀ their way to fantasy titles.
As for the consensus top-five backs? Only ForteĀ finished as a top-five runningĀ back in standard scoring, while the rest finished sixthĀ (Lacy), seventhĀ (Charles), 13th (McCoy), and 119th (Peterson).
Here we are one year later, and nothing has changed. Sure, we now hit the whip before we ānae naeā, but according to Fantasy Football Calculator, Murray is still going in the second round,Ā whileĀ essentially the same cropĀ of RBsĀ (Charles, Peterson, Lacy, LeāVeon Bell, and Marshawn Lynch) areĀ going top-five.
Why? Because just like last year, weāre buying into the mythsĀ that surround Murray, rather than seeing him for the elite, proven fantasy option that he is. Thus,Ā I am assuming the role of Fantasy CPRās resident myth buster, toĀ show youĀ why Murray is worthy of a first round pick.
Next: Myth #1: Murray is guaranteed to get injured
Dec 21, 2014; Arlington, TX, USA; Dallas Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray (29) on the sidelines with his left hand wrapped against the Indianapolis Colts at AT&T Stadium. Murray had hand surgery earlier in the week. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports
Myth #1: MurrayĀ isĀ guaranteedĀ to get injured
Itās only fitting that weĀ start with the same myth that dropped Murray to the second round last year. Murrayās talent wasnāt the question going into 2014āhe had just rushed for over 1,100 yards on 5.2 yards per carry with 10 total touchdownsāit was whether or not he could stay on the field.
NoĀ only did he stayĀ on the field, he ran all over it. Even so, Murray is still probably considered the biggest injury risk of any RB1.
Letās take a look at his injury history since entering the league, via Sports Injury Predictor.Ā
OnĀ one hand you have a guy whoĀ has sustained some sort ofĀ injury every season since enteringĀ the league, and on the other you have a guy who hasnāt missed a game since week 8 of 2013. Thatās 25 consecutive games, a streak we can expect to see continue in 2015.
Thanks to science.
Since KellyāsĀ arrival, theĀ Eagles have invested over $1 million in a sports science program geared towards improving the overall health and performance of the team.
According to The MMQBās Jenny Vrentas,Ā that money goesĀ towards fancy gadgets likeĀ Catapult Sportsā OptimEye sensors, Polar heart-rate monitors, an Omegawave system, and EliteForm weight-lifting technology with 3-D cameras. These provide the Eagles staff with data on playersāĀ agility, acceleration, performance decline, fatigue, stress and aerobic capacity, which helps them provide necessary rest to specific players.
KellyāsĀ initiative also includes dailyĀ message therapy, sleep monitoring, individually marked water bottles, urine output tracking, and those famous personalized performance smoothies.
Overseeing the program is former U.S. Naval Special Warfare performance coach Shaun Huls,Ā who was recently promoted to director of sports science and reconditioning. The staff alsoĀ includesĀ a āhigh performance analystā and a ālogistics coordinator.ā
Is all of this paying off? Statistics say yes.
(Mandatory Credit: r/NFL)
According toĀ Football OutsidersāĀ Adjusted Games Lost (AGL) metric, whichĀ quantifies how much a team is affected by injuryĀ based on data from the injury report and injured reserve (IR),Ā the Eagles have been the healthiest team in the NFL sinceĀ Chip Kelly went all Bill Nye on the league.
What youāll notice from the chart on the right, courtesy ofĀ r/NFL,Ā is that not only do the Eagles sit atop the rankings, but the division rival New YorkĀ Giants pull up the rear by a country mile. This is interesting, because likeĀ Bleeding Green Nationās Brandon Lee Gowton points out, former Giant and current Eagle Walter ThurmondĀ suggested that Giants head coach Tom Coughlin isĀ not on the sports science bandwagon.
"āHe doesnāt believe in the sport-science aspect like Coach Carroll or Coach Kelly and theĀ newfoundĀ technology for the players. His style takes a hit, because he doesnāt believe in this aspect. He believes in winning, but he doesnāt believe in the modern medicine to progress the players to that next level.ā"
So the most committed team to sports science is the least affected by injury, while possibly the least committedĀ team is the most affected. Perhaps thereās something to what Kelly and the Eagles are doing, and perhaps this will have a positiveĀ impact on Murrayās health, something Kelly alluded to back in 2013, before the thought of signing Murray was even a twinkle in future GM KellyāsĀ eye.
"āWe donāt do that just for the sake of doing it. We do that because we think thereās a benefit to it. Obviously, the big issues you look at are the soft tissue injures, because those are preventable.ā"
How much of Murrayās injury history is preventable? If you refer back to the chart, youāll notice that four of his six injuries were soft tissue injuries. If Kellyās program can actually prevent those, which AGLĀ suggestsĀ is the case, then thatās a strong reason to believe Murrayās odds of going down are much lower than expected.
ButĀ Max, what about all those touches he had? Everyone with that many touches gets hurt the next year.
Not so fast. Murray did have the sixth-most touches of any running back in NFL history last season, but check outĀ how the five players ahead of himĀ fared in theirĀ followingĀ seasons.
pro-football-reference.com
More backs ended up not missing a single game following their 450+ touch seasons than missing, and 2/3 of those injury-free backs were 26, just like Murray. So technically, history is actually onĀ Murrayās side.
And if all of that hasnāt convinced you, then perhaps the next busted myth will.
Next: Myth #2: Ryan Mathews will cut into Murray's production
Jun 17, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Sam Bradford (7) hands off to running back Ryan Mathews (24) during minicamp at The NovaCare Complex. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Myth #2: Ryan Mathews will cut into MurrayāsĀ production
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Those that think Mathews is going to be constantly subbing in for Murray donāt understand how aĀ Chip KellyĀ offense operates. The primary advantage of playing as fast as Kellyās teams do is thatĀ defenses donāt have timeĀ to make substitutions. This does two things:Ā exhausts the defense, and prevents situational sub packages, such as an extra corner or pass rusher for obvious passing situations.
The NFL rules constitute that if the offense makes a substitution, they have to allow the defense time to reciprocate. This means Chipās offense would have to wait for the defense to sendĀ rested, situationalĀ players onto the field. So once Murray steps onto the field, you can count on him playing that entire drive out.
The stats back it up. In his two years with Kelly, LeSean McCoy was second only to Matt Forte among all running backs in offensive snap percentage at 72.5%. Kelly keeps his studs on the field.
There is a catch, however. In order for Kellyās offense to play at its peak speed, its players need to be fresh. How can Kelly achieve this withoutĀ substituting?
Enter Ryan Mathews.
Mathews will be tasked with relieving Murray every few drives, in order to give the Eagles some fresh legs to run the offense through, while Murray gets his own legs underneath him. This not only enables the Eagles to play as fast as possible, but also ensures a fresh DeMarco Murray for all four quarters.
Donāt get it twisted, however, this is no committee; theĀ offense will still run through Murray. Chip always feeds his feature backs. Just lookĀ at how the top-twoĀ backs in a Chip Kelly offense have fared, both in Philly and at Oregon.
ESPN.com
ESPN.com
As you can tell, there is always an alpha dog, but occasionally, like in 2011, theĀ alpha dogāsĀ backup isĀ more of a beta dog, capable of being the alpha dog, than he is an omega dog. In that 2011 season,Ā LaMichael James had the highest yardage and YPCĀ of any KellyĀ feature back ever,Ā despiteĀ dropping from his career-high carry total the year prior.
Sound familiar?
That 2011 production is what we can expect to see from Murray (coming off a career high in carries) and Mathews (beta dog), this season.
Next: Myth #3: Murray's '14 success was a product of the Cowboys offensive line
Nov 27, 2014; Arlington, TX, USA;Dallas Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray (29) runs the ball against the Philadelphia Eagles in the third quarter at AT&T Stadium. Philadelphia beat Dallas 33-10. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Myth #3: MurrayāsĀ ā14 successĀ wasĀ a product of the CowboysĀ offensive line
According to Pro Football Focus, Murray rushed for more yards after contactĀ (998) than before contact (847), and forced the second-most missed tackles in the league (55).Ā It doesnāt matter who youāre running behind when you put up those kinds of numbers.
And notĀ only was Murray more than the beneficiary of good blocking, he may alsoĀ be running behind better blocking this season. ESPNās Matthew Berry brought up an excellent point regarding the Eagles and Cowboys offensive lines in his ā100 fantasy football facts for 2015.ā
"53.Ā Last season, the Dallas offensive line averaged 2.8 yards before contact per rush. That was 10th best in the league.54.Ā Last season, the Eagles, with a constantly changing offensive line, averaged 2.9 yards before contact per rush. That was seventh-best in the NFL.55.Ā DeMarco Murray, who played for theĀ Dallas CowboysĀ last season, now plays for theĀ Philadelphia."
Berry also pointed out that in the past two years, the Eagles have led the league in average yards before contact per rush, with 3.28.
And the hits just keep coming. According to Pro Football Focus, the Eagles wereĀ the #1 run blocking team in the league in 2014.Ā Dallas was #2.
Philly did recently cut All-Pro guard Evan Mathis, but according to longtime Eagles leftĀ tackle and former assistant Tra Thomas, Mathisā replacement, Allen Barbre, is actually a better fit alongsideĀ left tackle Jason Peters. Not to mention Mathis missed seven games last season, and that didnāt affect their ranking. As long as PFF All-Pros Jason Peters and Lane Johnson are leading the way, Murray will have plenty of room to run wild.
Not that he needs that much.
Next: So what's in store for Murray in Philly?
Sep 7, 2014; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Eagles head coach Chip Kelly watches his players warm up prior to the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey G. Pittenger-USA TODAY Sports
So whatāsĀ in store for MurrayĀ inĀ Philly?
Fresh legs. Better blocking. Tasty smoothies. Murray may well be in a better situation than he was last season. Letās compareĀ the two statistically.
teamrankings.com
Murray is clearly going to the more voluminous, productiveĀ offense, but what is interesting areĀ the two offensesā red zone numbers. Getting to the red zone has never been the problem for the Eagles, itās the scoring part. Murray scored 12 red zone touchdowns last year, 36% of Dallasā total amount (33). Murray should be able to capitalize on the increase ofĀ red zone opportunities, especially given Phillyās lack of any other go-to red zone option.
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Also worth noting:Ā Kelly produced the leagueās leading rusher with an inherited RB in McCoy. He didnāt inherit Murray. He sought him out. For all we know, we have yet toĀ see the best version of a Chip Kelly offense. Thatās scary.
MurrayāsĀ downside? Thatās not scary. Thatās just a bunch of myths.
For more fantasy football advice, you can follow me on Twitter @FSdash, and be sure to bookmark our fantasy football page to keep up withĀ the latest from Fantasy CPR.Ā