Fantasy Football: Debunking the DeMarco Murray Myths

May 28, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Eagles running back DeMarco Murray (29) talks with the media during OTA

You’d think we’d learn our lesson.

Last summer, when we weren’t busy “nae naeing” or dumping ice on our heads, we were consistently drafting the same five running backs—Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, and Eddie Lacy—with our first five picks.

Meanwhile, fantasy MVP DeMarco Murray was slipping to the second round, and those fortunate enough to scoop up him were yelling “Huaaaaah” on their way to fantasy titles.

As for the consensus top-five backs? Only Forte finished as a top-five running back in standard scoring, while the rest finished sixth (Lacy), seventh (Charles), 13th (McCoy), and 119th (Peterson).

Here we are one year later, and nothing has changed. Sure, we now hit the whip before we “nae nae”, but according to Fantasy Football Calculator, Murray is still going in the second round, while essentially the same crop of RBs (Charles, Peterson, Lacy, Le’Veon Bell, and Marshawn Lynch) are going top-five.

Why? Because just like last year, we’re buying into the myths that surround Murray, rather than seeing him for the elite, proven fantasy option that he is. Thus, I am assuming the role of Fantasy CPR’s resident myth buster, to show you why Murray is worthy of a first round pick.

Next: Myth #1: Murray is guaranteed to get injured

Dec 21, 2014; Arlington, TX, USA; Dallas Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray (29) on the sidelines with his left hand wrapped against the Indianapolis Colts at AT&T Stadium. Murray had hand surgery earlier in the week. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

Myth #1: Murray is guaranteed to get injured

It’s only fitting that we start with the same myth that dropped Murray to the second round last year. Murray’s talent wasn’t the question going into 2014—he had just rushed for over 1,100 yards on 5.2 yards per carry with 10 total touchdowns—it was whether or not he could stay on the field.

No only did he stay on the field, he ran all over it. Even so, Murray is still probably considered the biggest injury risk of any RB1.

Let’s take a look at his injury history since entering the league, via Sports Injury Predictor.

On one hand you have a guy who has sustained some sort of injury every season since entering the league, and on the other you have a guy who hasn’t missed a game since week 8 of 2013. That’s 25 consecutive games, a streak we can expect to see continue in 2015.

Thanks to science.

Since Kelly’s arrival, the Eagles have invested over $1 million in a sports science program geared towards improving the overall health and performance of the team.

According to The MMQB’s Jenny Vrentas, that money goes towards fancy gadgets like Catapult Sports’ OptimEye sensors, Polar heart-rate monitors, an Omegawave system, and EliteForm weight-lifting technology with 3-D cameras. These provide the Eagles staff with data on players’ agility, acceleration, performance decline, fatigue, stress and aerobic capacity, which helps them provide necessary rest to specific players.

Kelly’s initiative also includes daily message therapy, sleep monitoring, individually marked water bottles, urine output tracking, and those famous personalized performance smoothies.

Overseeing the program is former U.S. Naval Special Warfare performance coach Shaun Huls, who was recently promoted to director of sports science and reconditioning. The staff also includes a “high performance analyst” and a “logistics coordinator.”

Is all of this paying off? Statistics say yes.

(Mandatory Credit: r/NFL)

According to Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Games Lost (AGL) metric, which quantifies how much a team is affected by injury based on data from the injury report and injured reserve (IR), the Eagles have been the healthiest team in the NFL since Chip Kelly went all Bill Nye on the league.

What you’ll notice from the chart on the right, courtesy of r/NFL, is that not only do the Eagles sit atop the rankings, but the division rival New York Giants pull up the rear by a country mile. This is interesting, because like Bleeding Green Nation’s Brandon Lee Gowton points out, former Giant and current Eagle Walter Thurmond suggested that Giants head coach Tom Coughlin is not on the sports science bandwagon.

"“He doesn’t believe in the sport-science aspect like Coach Carroll or Coach Kelly and the newfound technology for the players. His style takes a hit, because he doesn’t believe in this aspect. He believes in winning, but he doesn’t believe in the modern medicine to progress the players to that next level.”"

So the most committed team to sports science is the least affected by injury, while possibly the least committed team is the most affected. Perhaps there’s something to what Kelly and the Eagles are doing, and perhaps this will have a positive impact on Murray’s health, something Kelly alluded to back in 2013, before the thought of signing Murray was even a twinkle in future GM Kelly’s eye.

"“We don’t do that just for the sake of doing it. We do that because we think there’s a benefit to it. Obviously, the big issues you look at are the soft tissue injures, because those are preventable.”"

How much of Murray’s injury history is preventable? If you refer back to the chart, you’ll notice that four of his six injuries were soft tissue injuries. If Kelly’s program can actually prevent those, which AGL suggests is the case, then that’s a strong reason to believe Murray’s odds of going down are much lower than expected.

But Max, what about all those touches he had? Everyone with that many touches gets hurt the next year.

Not so fast. Murray did have the sixth-most touches of any running back in NFL history last season, but check out how the five players ahead of him fared in their following seasons.

pro-football-reference.com

More backs ended up not missing a single game following their 450+ touch seasons than missing, and 2/3 of those injury-free backs were 26, just like Murray. So technically, history is actually on Murray’s side.

And if all of that hasn’t convinced you, then perhaps the next busted myth will.

Next: Myth #2: Ryan Mathews will cut into Murray's production

Jun 17, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Sam Bradford (7) hands off to running back Ryan Mathews (24) during minicamp at The NovaCare Complex. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Myth #2: Ryan Mathews will cut into Murray’s production

More from FanSided

Those that think Mathews is going to be constantly subbing in for Murray don’t understand how a Chip Kelly offense operates. The primary advantage of playing as fast as Kelly’s teams do is that defenses don’t have time to make substitutions. This does two things: exhausts the defense, and prevents situational sub packages, such as an extra corner or pass rusher for obvious passing situations.

The NFL rules constitute that if the offense makes a substitution, they have to allow the defense time to reciprocate. This means Chip’s offense would have to wait for the defense to send rested, situational players onto the field. So once Murray steps onto the field, you can count on him playing that entire drive out.

The stats back it up. In his two years with Kelly, LeSean McCoy was second only to Matt Forte among all running backs in offensive snap percentage at 72.5%. Kelly keeps his studs on the field.

There is a catch, however. In order for Kelly’s offense to play at its peak speed, its players need to be fresh. How can Kelly achieve this without substituting?

Enter Ryan Mathews.

Mathews will be tasked with relieving Murray every few drives, in order to give the Eagles some fresh legs to run the offense through, while Murray gets his own legs underneath him. This not only enables the Eagles to play as fast as possible, but also ensures a fresh DeMarco Murray for all four quarters.

Don’t get it twisted, however, this is no committee; the offense will still run through Murray. Chip always feeds his feature backs. Just look at how the top-two backs in a Chip Kelly offense have fared, both in Philly and at Oregon.

ESPN.com

As you can tell, there is always an alpha dog, but occasionally, like in 2011, the alpha dog’s backup is more of a beta dog, capable of being the alpha dog, than he is an omega dog. In that 2011 season, LaMichael James had the highest yardage and YPC of any Kelly feature back ever, despite dropping from his career-high carry total the year prior.

Sound familiar?

That 2011 production is what we can expect to see from Murray (coming off a career high in carries) and Mathews (beta dog), this season.

Next: Myth #3: Murray's '14 success was a product of the Cowboys offensive line

Nov 27, 2014; Arlington, TX, USA;Dallas Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray (29) runs the ball against the Philadelphia Eagles in the third quarter at AT&T Stadium. Philadelphia beat Dallas 33-10. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Myth #3: Murray’s ’14 success was a product of the Cowboys offensive line

According to Pro Football Focus, Murray rushed for more yards after contact (998) than before contact (847), and forced the second-most missed tackles in the league (55). It doesn’t matter who you’re running behind when you put up those kinds of numbers.

And not only was Murray more than the beneficiary of good blocking, he may also be running behind better blocking this season. ESPN’s Matthew Berry brought up an excellent point regarding the Eagles and Cowboys offensive lines in his “100 fantasy football facts for 2015.”

"53. Last season, the Dallas offensive line averaged 2.8 yards before contact per rush. That was 10th best in the league.54. Last season, the Eagles, with a constantly changing offensive line, averaged 2.9 yards before contact per rush. That was seventh-best in the NFL.55. DeMarco Murray, who played for the Dallas Cowboys last season, now plays for the Philadelphia."

Berry also pointed out that in the past two years, the Eagles have led the league in average yards before contact per rush, with 3.28.

And the hits just keep coming. According to Pro Football Focus, the Eagles were the #1 run blocking team in the league in 2014. Dallas was #2.

Philly did recently cut All-Pro guard Evan Mathis, but according to longtime Eagles left tackle and former assistant Tra Thomas, Mathis’ replacement, Allen Barbre, is actually a better fit alongside left tackle Jason Peters. Not to mention Mathis missed seven games last season, and that didn’t affect their ranking. As long as PFF All-Pros Jason Peters and Lane Johnson are leading the way, Murray will have plenty of room to run wild.

Not that he needs that much.

Next: So what's in store for Murray in Philly?

Sep 7, 2014; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Eagles head coach Chip Kelly watches his players warm up prior to the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey G. Pittenger-USA TODAY Sports

So what’s in store for Murray in Philly?

Fresh legs. Better blocking. Tasty smoothies. Murray may well be in a better situation than he was last season. Let’s compare the two statistically.

teamrankings.com

Murray is clearly going to the more voluminous, productive offense, but what is interesting are the two offenses’ red zone numbers. Getting to the red zone has never been the problem for the Eagles, it’s the scoring part. Murray scored 12 red zone touchdowns last year, 36% of Dallas’ total amount (33). Murray should be able to capitalize on the increase of red zone opportunities, especially given Philly’s lack of any other go-to red zone option.

SEE MORE FANTASY FOOTBALL ANALYSIS: Melvin Gordon’s X-Factor

Also worth noting: Kelly produced the league’s leading rusher with an inherited RB in McCoy. He didn’t inherit Murray. He sought him out. For all we know, we have yet to see the best version of a Chip Kelly offense. That’s scary.

Murray’s downside? That’s not scary. That’s just a bunch of myths.

For more fantasy football advice, you can follow me on Twitter @FSdash, and be sure to bookmark our fantasy football page to keep up with the latest from Fantasy CPR.

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