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Fantasy Football: Undervalued/Overvalued RB’s

By Carson McKay

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Dec 28, 2014; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Chicago Bears running back Matt Forte (22) catches a pass against the Minnesota Vikings in the third quarter at TCF Bank Stadium. The Vikings win 13-9. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Drafting a fantasy football championship roster is all about finding that perfect balance of safety and upside. Play it too safe and you’ll end up with a bunch of Fred Jacksons. Go upside crazy and you’ll end up with a core of Montee Ball and Cordarelle Patterson (I wish this example was a hypothetical). Here’s who to target and who to stay away from.

Undervalued

Matt Forte (ADP: 11.1)

I love Matt Forte this year. I’ve heard the gripes. He’s 30. He was inconsistent last year. He’s not going to catch 100 balls this year. Sure, these are all true to some degree, but don’t let these keep you from grabbing the steal of the first round. He’s this year’s version of 2014 Demarco Murray: a far too quickly dismissed running back in a contract year with a new offensive coordinator going at the tail end of the first round, and you can bet on him ending the year as one the top scoring running backs.

First, the contract year: they always seem to bring out the best in players. Forte has chosen not to hold out, signifying he’s ready to hit the open market after this season. Forte knows as well as any GM that 30-year-old running backs that don’t perform don’t get rewarded with lucrative contracts. Plus, without any indication that Forte plans to stay with the team after the season, the coaching staff should milk every last carry out of him (See Demarco Murray’s 393 carries last season). Speaking of new coaching staff, Head Coach John Fox and Offensive Coordinator Adam Gase should work in Forte’s favor. These guys are going to want to prove they can succeed post-Peyton Manning, and relying on Jay Cutler is not the easiest path to success (ask Mark Trestman). The run friendly Gase should rely more heavily on Forte. Don’t forget these are the same guys that turned Knowshon Moreno and CJ Anderson, neither of whom have the skill set of Forte, into fantasy stars.

Finally, the Bears offensive line will be better this season. Last year, they were ravished by injuries. This can largely account for some of Forte’s inconsistency last season. Now they’re healthy and they added a few new additions. Look for the Bears to have one of the stronger offensive lines in football this season. With Forte, you have a talented player in an ideal situation. Look for a highly productive season with a ton of touches.

Next: Time To Dig Deeper For The Next Sleeper

January 10, 2015; Seattle, WA, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton (1) speaks with running back Jonathan Stewart (28) during the first half in the 2014 NFC Divisional playoff football game at CenturyLink Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Jonathan Stewart (ADP: 46.1)

While Stewart lacks the safety of some of the Round 1 & 2 guys, he’s got plenty of upside and plenty of reasons to believe that he’ll succeed. For the first time in his 8-year career, he’s poised to be the feature back. He thrived at the end of last season when DeAngelo Williams went down. While end of season surges don’t always translate into success the following season (see Cordarrelle Patterson), all signs indicate Stewart’s should continue. Williams is no longer a Panther and early reports say that Stewart is in line to be a workhorse for Carolina this season. Additionally, he’ll get plenty of redzone carries since injuries have forced Cam Newton to largely relinquish this duty. Look for Stewart to get 200+ carries behind a strong offensive line. The only red flag for Stewart is his injury history, but every indicator shows he’s fully healthy. Barring an injury, he’ll far outperform his draft position.

Next: Who Could Be The Steal Of The Draft?

Dec 21, 2014; Arlington, TX, USA; Dallas Cowboys running back Joseph Randle (21) carries the ball as Indianapolis Colts free safety LaRon Landry (30) defends in the second quarter at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Joseph Randle (67.9)

Joseph Randle could be the steal of the draft. I’m honestly flabbergasted that he’s being drafted this late. This is the presumptive starter in an elite offense. Who’s going to take his role, Darren McFadden? C’mon. All reports are saying that Randle has been taking the first team reps and it’s his job to lose. All of this on a team with 393 carries to go around. Last year in a limited role, Randle posted a phenomenal 6.7 YPC. I’d take any running back behind the dominant Cowboys offensive line, and every factor indicates that this will be the more than capable Randle. Don’t expect Murray level production, but Randle’s a safe bet to outperform his shockingly low draft position. 

Next: Which Rookie Is Undervalued?

Dec 31, 2014; Glendale, AZ, USA; Boise State Broncos running back Jay Ajayi (27) following the game against the Arizona Wildcats in the 2014 Fiesta Bowl at Phoenix Stadium. The Broncos defeated the Wildcats 38-30. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Jay Ajayi (ADP 137.0)

Ajayi is worth a late round flier. Overblown and largely unfounded concerns about his knee caused him to slip to the fifth round of this year’s NFL draft. Ajayi remains a very capable every-down back. Lamar Miller is the starter for now, but he doesn’t have a history beyond one season of being the feature back. Ajayi, an Eddie Lacy type player, could overtake the role. A RB friendly offense gives Ajayi a huge upside, and with his current ADP, he comes at virtually no cost.

Now let’s see who is overvalued:

Next: Who Is Overvalued in Round 1?

Mar 10, 2015; Orchard Park, NY, USA; Buffalo Bills running back LeSean McCoy holds up his new jersey after a press conference at Ralph Wilson Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports

This year, it’s hard to find any running back without any risk. Eddie Lacy has been going number one in a lot of drafts largely because he doesn’t carry any significant risk. The number two pick didn’t even play more than a game last season. Needless to say, there’s risk with just about any running back you take. These guys just carry too much of it or don’t pair it with enough upside.

LeSean McCoy (ADP: 12.7)

I’ve never been one to root against any guy with four capital letters in his name, but there’s just too much not to like with Slim Shady in a new offense. Last season, he struggled in an elite offense with a great offensive line. His production last season doesn’t justify a first round selection and now he’s in a less productive offense with a struggling offensive line. Teams are going to load the box because who are they going to worry about: LeSean McCoy or Matt Cassel? The answer is obvious. McCoy thrives in open space and I can’t imagine that he’s going to see a lot of that in Buffalo. Stay away this year.

Next: Who Is Another First Round Risk?

June 9, 2015; Englewood, CO, USA; Denver Broncos running back C.J. Anderson (22) speaks to the media following mini camp activities at the Broncos training facility. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

CJ Anderson (ADP: 11.0)

This feels wrong because I love what he did last season. I rode his string of 20-point games to a championship in one league last year. This year, there’s just so much risk surrounding him. It’s hard to separate how much of that production is due to his skill versus the elite offense he’s in. Ronnie Hillman was great before he was hurt. Knowshon Moreno was great the season before. It’s just too hard to bet on any one running back in the Broncos offense. If he was guaranteed carries, I’d consider him with the number one pick, but the feature RB changes too much in the Bronco offense, not to mention a new coaching staff in Denver adds to the uncertainty. I love the upside, but I need a little more safety with a first round pick.

Next: Who Is The Most Overvalued Back In Your Draft?

Jun 9, 2015; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indianapolis Colts running back Frank Gore (23) goes through workout drills during minicamp at the Indiana Farm Bureau Football Center. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Frank Gore (ADP: 39.6)

Is this guy really being drafted this high? He wasn’t very productive in the middle of the season last year with the 49ers. Now he’s entering the RB graveyard that is the Colts. Plus he’s 32. The only two running backs to ever post 1,000-yard season at 32 or older are Ricky Williams and Emmitt Smith. While Gore is a great player who’s had a great career, he’s not Emmitt Smith. Opt for a younger RB with higher upside.

Next: The Top 100 RBs in PPR Leagues

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