Fantasy Football Rookie Analysis: Jay Ajayi

Jay Ajayi. Let’s get this out of the way at the top: he isn’t a strong dynsasty option. It’s believed that his knee is basically bone-on-bone, and he probably won’t be in the league in three years, or if he is he will be just getting by. Ajayi’s analysis should be all about this year. But before looking at the team dynamics that he’s jumping in to, it’s important to look at his performance in college.

This was definitely one of the more difficult film sessions I’ve done because as much as I want to love the Boise State blue home turf, I can’t stand it.

For a man who supposedly is one knee injury away from retirement, he certainly doesn’t shy away from getting playing time and getting hit. He had more rushing attempts than any other D-1 running back, including Melvin Gordon, who was quite literally all of Wisconsin’s offense. On top of his 347 rushing attempts (which includes 28 touchdowns, one shy of the leader, Gordon), he also had 50 receptions for over 500 yards.

Oct 24, 2014; Boise, ID, USA; Boise State Broncos running back Jay Ajayi (27) runs with the ball during the second half against the Brigham Young Cougars at Albertsons Stadium. The Broncos won 55-20. Mandatory Credit: Brian Losness-USA TODAY Sports

Against Ole Miss, Grant Hedrick threw a handful of floaters that Ajayi caught and held on to only to be slammed to the ground immediately afterwards. Hedrick used Ajayi on underneath routes a number of times when he was in trouble, and that shows in the stats too with his reception total. He also shows an ability to make cuts, whether it’s in the backfield or while running downfield.

In one goal line situation against Ole Miss he fumbled the ball, almost causing a costly turnover, and on another opportunity got stuffed. This could definitely have more to do with the superiority of Ole Miss over Boise State more so than him not being strong enough to power through.

Against Colorado State, his runs looked a lot better, which makes sense considering the disparity in skill between the two opponents. He certainly showed a better ability to break through a crowded line and get downfield, taking two runs from around the 15 yard line to the house, straight up outrunning most of the defense.

He usually falls forward at the end of a run (on one play his lineman tripped him and he fell about seven yards forward for the first down) and is much more of a forward runner than an east-west runner, and he is able to take advantage of open seams and break for big plays. His game certainly isn’t perfect, as he makes mistakes that you wouldn’t expect a top NFL running back to make whether it’s cutting in to a defender or taking the wrong hole or dropping/fumbling the ball at times, but you’re not looking for a premiere back with Ajayi. You’re looking for a guy who can take advantage of opportunity, and I believe he can do that.

Jay Ajayi also showed blocking ability on film, stopping blitzers on a number of occasions. This certainly bodes well for his potential playing time as most coaches place a lot of importance on off-ball play.

Can handle a big workload: Check. Can get into the end zone: Check. Is on a strong offense: Check. Has opportunity to get a big chunk of the workload: Check, to the dismay of Lamar Miller lovers everywhere.

Although Jay Ajayi would probably have gone much sooner in the NFL Draft if it wasn’t for his longterm injury concerns, going to Miami wasn’t the worst landing spot for him. Let me waste some words going into how Lamar Miller, Ajayi’s roadblock on the road to fantasy relevance, isn’t the most fearful obstacle. During the past few years, the Dolphins have had a very confusing and often frustrating relationship with Lamar Miller. He will look great on the field, show an ability to take a big workload, but be given absolutely no trust to have sole control over the starting role.

In 2013, many high-profile fantasy analysts proclaimed Lamar Miller as a breakout candidate. Which made sense considering his potential, the improvements in Ryan Tannehill’s game, and the fact that the only competition he had was lowly Daniel Thomas. Except by season’s end, Thomas ended up with 4 more touchdowns (4 to 2 rushing TDs and 2 to 0 receiving) and only a slightly lower YPA than Miller.

Before the 2014 season, Miller received more hype, especially now that it appeared the oft-injured Knowshon Moreno was the main competition for touches. But when Moreno was healthy in the early weeks of the season, he appeared to be causing the same problems that Thomas did. Take week one, for instance, when Lamar Miller had a seemingly respectable line of 78 total yards and a receiving touchdown. Seems fine until you see that Knowshon Moreno got 13 more rushing attempts and finished the game with 134 yards and a rushing touchdown. Luckily for Miller, Moreno’s injury-bug struck again, and Miller led the Dolphins’ backfield from that point on.

Your evaluation of Lamar Miller will directly affect how you feel about Ajayi, obviously. If Moreno had stayed healthy, would Miller have gotten the spotlight stolen from him yet again? And do you think the Dolphins are finally ready to give Miller the full workload, or will they be tempted to give their new toy Jay Ajayi a spin? I am guessing the latter.

Right now, Ajayi is being drafted as the 48th RB off the board, in the mix with other backup running backs. But Ajayi has more potential to get significant playing time this year than most of the other guys around him, with the exception of Danny Woodhead, whom I love as a sneaky deep pick this year and would suggest drafting over Ajayi. If you got Lamar Miller earlier in the draft, it is essential that you reach a round early for Ajayi. You definitely want the running back in that offense, and I think both players have a great potential to succeed and could be a top-10 running back on any given Sunday. Pay attention to camp to see who is looking like the main guy. Miller’s stock might fall if Ajayi gets rave reviews, and their value might switch. But for now, even if you don’t get Miller, Ajayi is a worthy bench player who has the potential of being much more.

Next: Overvalued and Undervalued RBs in Your Fantasy Draft

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