Fantasy Football: Two Quarterback Draft Strategy
By Danny Nicks
Jul 30, 2015; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers practice during training camp at Ray Nitschke Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
So you cracked under the pressure and you’re going to be spending your labor day weekend drafting for a two quarterback fantasy football league. You don’t know much about them. It’s one of those outcast, hipster formats that gets lumped in with IDP and auction. Who the heck has time for that? But alas, you’ve paid your dues and now you’re invested.
Let me tell you now that you are in for headaches galore. This league is an entirely different animal than anything you have ever played before. Does the basic draft strategy work in this league? Don’t count on it. You will see QB’s flying off the shelves faster than any other position. But should they?
Next: How valuable are quarterbacks in this format?
Aug 1, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan (2) passes during a drill on the field during training camp at the Flowery Branch Training Facility. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
The NFL has moved full-force into the passing era. And now more than ever teams are relying on their signal callers to get it done. In a two-QB league, we weigh the value of the position to reflect that; typically with six-point passing touchdowns (6PaT). You’re also required to start multiple quarterbacks on a weekly basis. Meaning the average 10-team league will start 20 quarterbacks every week and more than likely roster all 30 starting QBs.
Derek Carr finished as the 20th overall QB in 6PaT leagues last year. That was over 200 points beneath leading QB Andrew Luck. Not exactly the guy you want to be rolling out as a QB1 weekly. We’re going to focus on preventing that.
But how?
Well let’s start with Russell Wilson, who I managed to snag in the 7th round as a QB2 last year. Wilson finished the year fifth overall, only 65 points shy of Luck. Which was essentially the point disparity between DeMarco Murray and Marshawn Lynch. The biggest difference being that both RBs cost a fringe first-round pick last season. I like cheap players with high ceilings, and you should too.
Another example of this is Philip Rivers (QB12 6PaT). Last season he was being drafted as a late-round QB2, yet he finished only 41 points behind Drew Brees (QB4 6PaT)- who was a consensus first-round pick in 6PaT.
Don’t overpay for an elite QB! Unless his name is Andrew Luck or Aaron Rodgers. And don’t panic when they start flying off the board. You will draft one. You’re just going to do it in the right spot, at the right value.
Because from a positional standpoint, quarterbacks are fairly easy to predict and markedly more consistent than other positions. Running backs, on the other hand, are much harder to predict – but far more lucrative in terms of point disparity.
Eddie Lacy (5RB PPR) – who was being drafted in the first-round in most 6PaT drafts- finished 69 points ahead of LeSean McCoy (12 RB PPR). McCoy was widely considered the consensus number one overall selection in all formats.
In short, I want you to take away two things. One, running backs on average have a much larger drop off between the top-tier of it’s position and the middle-tier. (i.e. Jamaal Charles vs. Alfred Morris). Two, that running backs are generally a riskier proposition than quarterbacks.
Next: Are QBs king?
Jul 27, 2015; Latrobe, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (7) participates in drills during training camp at Saint Vincent College. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
ADP Comparison Value Across Rounds
To compare values at ADP are subjective. So I will be taking what I feel are the top quarterbacks of each round (based on current ADP) and pitting them against what I feel are the prospects in that round (based on current ADP). This is based on 10-team 2 QB 6PaT ADPs via FFC.
It’s a fun little game of “would you rather” or a much more primal “may the best man win”. Whatever you fancy. Ask yourself who you think would come out on top in their respective position. Then draft that person.
I would rather have Marshawn Lynch than Russell Wilson. Not only because of his sustained consistency, but his sustained consistency in a very risky position. However I feel like I’m getting better value out of Matt Ryan than LeSean McCoy. Why? Because I was the guy smart enough to draft Marshawn Lynch over Russell Wilson in the first round. I would take Gronk over Wilson too. Same thought process.
Round 1: (ADP)
Andrew Luck (1.02) vs. Adrian Peterson (1.04)
Aaron Rodgers (1.02) vs. LeVeon Bell (1.06)
Peyton Manning (1.07) vs. Antonio Brown (1.07)
Russell Wilson (1.08) vs. Marshawn Lynch (1.10)
Round 2:
Drew Brees (2.01) vs. Dez Bryant (2.02)
Ben Roethlisberger (2.03) vs. Rob Gronkowski (2.04)
Tony Romo (2.08) vs. DeMarco Murray (2.08)
Round 3:
Matt Ryan (3.01) vs. LeSean Mccoy (3.01)
Cam Newton (3.04) vs. Jordy Nelson (3.05)
Tom Brady (3.09) vs. Jeremy Hill (3.08)
Round 4:
Matthew Stafford (4.01) vs. Randall Cobb (4.02)
Eli Manning (4.03) vs. Justin Forsett (4.05)
Ryan Tannehill (4.07) vs. Mike Evans (4.08)
Philip Rivers (4.08) vs. Frank Gore (4.10)
Round 5:
None.
Prospects: T.Y Hilton, Brandin Cooks, Kelvin Benjamin, Melvin Gordon, Alfred Morris, DeAndre Hopkins, etc.
Remaining QBs: Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Bradford, Colin Kaepernick, Jay Cutler, Joe Flacco.
Round 6:
Teddy Bridgewater (6.01) vs. Jordan Matthews (6.02)
Colin Kaepernick (6.06) vs. Julian Edelman (6.08)
Sam Bradford (6.08) vs. Latavius Murray (6.08)
Round 7:
Jay Cutler (7.02) vs. Keenan Allen (7.02)
Joe Flacco (7.03) vs. Travis Kelce (7.03)
Carson Palmer (7.07) vs. Todd Gurley (7.10)
Remaining prospects:
J. Maclin, B. Marshall, M. Bennett, D. Jackson, T.J. Yeldon, etc.
I stop at round seven because I consider these the last of the quarterbacks that could be considered fringe-QB1. Don’t get caught with your pants down in round 5 drafting Teddy Bridgewater. There IS a point disparity in QB land. It’s just not as steep as other positions.
Reviewing the above comparisons, we see that sub-elite tier of QB1 start with Matt Ryan in round three and end with Rivers in round five. As I said before, I find it more prudent to take those middle prospects and take a top-tier RB or WR with your first and second round pick once Luck and Rodgers are gone.
To reiterate again (because I’m going to drill this into your head whether you like it or not), I would rather see you take Antonio Brown over Peyton Manning in the first round, Gronk over Big Ben in the second and select Eli Manning or Tannehill in the third. Simply because the value of Antonio Brown will likely have a higher point differential at season’s end in his position than Manning will have at his.
Next: When should I draft my QBs?
Jun 17, 2015; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees (9) during minicamp at the New Orleans Saints Training Facility. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
Here I will simply list my QB tiers. Use them as you see fit and always remember to think about a player’s value in his position as opposed to what your immediate team needs are. Think to yourself, what are the best available players at each position and weigh their value against what your positional team needs are. (Players I am targeting – *)
Tier 1:
A. Luck
A. Rodgers
Tier 2:
D. Brees
P. Manning
Tier 3:
M. Ryan *
B. Roethlisberger *
R. Wilson
Tier 4:
E. Manning *
T. Romo
R. Tannehill
T. Brady
P. Rivers
M. Stafford
Tier 5 (QB2):
J. Flacco
C. Kaepernick
T. Bridgewater *
C. Palmer *
S. Bradford *
J. Cutler
Next: Rules for your 2-QB draft
Apr 3, 2015; Memphis, TN, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning looks on during the first half of the game between the Memphis Grizzlies and the Oklahoma City Thunder at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports
Rules for a 2-QB League:
- QBs are NOT king. Unless their names are Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck.
- Positional value should more than likely outweigh team need. But that doesn’t mean drafting a guy that’s five spots higher on your top-200 rankings over your glaring like of a TE. Jacob Tamme will NOT carry you to a fantasy title. Sorry.
- Well-rounded teams win championships. So if you have a great bench, trade it for better starters.
- Let the draft come to you, but ALWAYS make sure you draft one of the QBs in rounds 1-4. But you should take them as late as you can get away with.
- Have fun!