Fantasy Football Preview: Running Backs to Avoid

Fantasy football can be tough. In season long leagues, players aren’t really afforded the opportunity to redeem themselves after the draft. Therefore, draft busts can seriously damage a team’s chances at competing late in the postseason.

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Running back is the toughest position to get right. Most fantasy rosters require at least two running backs in a lineup. In the NFL, there are only 32 starting running back jobs. Therefore, if you take a bad running back through the draft, there will be very few available on the waiver wire. This forces owners to emphasize running backs in their draft strategies.

There are many risk factors when drafting a running back. Running backs have a very short lifespan in the NFL. Between 2010 and 2013, 61 running backs ran for over 1,000 yards. Of those running backs, only 2 of them were in their age 30 seasons and older. The lack of production at age 30 stems from the large workload.

Running backs break down fairly easily as well. Last season, starting running backs like Ryan Mathews, Ben Tate, Arian Foster, Montee Ball and Stevan Ridley missed multiple games with injuries. Nothing hurts more than losing your top running back for an extended period of time. Sometimes these injuries are unavoidable; however, we can avoid taking players that are injury prone or taking their backup in case of an injury. That being said, here are some running backs to avoid drafting this season.

Frank Gore

Aug 5, 2015; Anderson, IN, USA; Indianapolis Colts running back Frank Gore (23) runs with the ball during training camp at Anderson University. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

The new Colts running back has been on my list of players to avoid for each of the past three seasons. For those three seasons, Gore has proved me wrong by totaling over 1,000 yards in each season. In Indianapolis, Gore will probably carry a smaller workload than in the past and is primed for his worst season yet. His advanced age should also hurt his ability to perform. The University of Miami alum has had a remarkable career, but he should see career lows in rush yards and touchdowns as Andrew Luck continues to torch opposing defenses. Gore will likely be drafted as more of a second running back, but I would rather take a chance on a younger rookie like T.J. Yeldon for that spot.

Arian Foster

Since 2011, Arian Foster has missed 14 of the Texan’s 64 games, an average of about 4.5 per season. Foster’s recurring injuries could and should scare fantasy owners away. When drafting a running back of his caliber in the first round, owners are looking for consistency and quality. If he misses 4 additional games, then the owner will face a major disadvantage without his/her best player.

Arian is capable of great things as a starting running back. Last season, Foster was great for Houston, averaging 16.2 ESPN fantasy points per game. However, Foster was forced to miss 3 games with a groin and hip injury. He has dealt with multiple lower body ailments over the past few years and he is very likely to have more in the future.

Foster has already started this offseason with a groin injury that could hold him out a couple of months. Many people will try to steal Foster in the middle rounds to stash him for the playoffs; however, you should be aware that when he comes back, the team will likely be cautious with his workload, especially if they are out of the playoff race.

Giovani Bernard

Two years ago, I fell in love with Gio Bernard as my favorite rookie sleeper after watching HBO’s Hard Knocks. Coach Lewis was a big fan of his game and it seemed as if he’d be able to handle goal-line work at the highest level. Gio had a slow start in the NFL, splitting carries with BenJarvus Green-Ellis. However, Bernard outplayed Green-Ellis by playing a big role in the pass game. Bernard had a decent overall season with 1209 all purpose yards and 8 total touchdowns.

Surprisingly, the Bengals went out and drafted Louisiana State running back Jeremy Hill in the second round of the 2014 NFL draft. Many believed that the Bengals were trying to create a three-headed monster between Hill, Green-Ellis and Bernard. Because of Hill’s strong training camp, Cincinnati released Green-Ellis. For much of last season, Hill dominated early down and red zone work while Bernard served as the third down back. The Bengals duo of Bernard and Hill worked very well as both were efficient in their roles.

Although the Bengals two running back system might work well for them as a team, it is frustrating for fantasy owners of Bernard and Hill. If I had to choose one of those players for next season, it would be Hill due to his ability to score touchdowns in the red zone. Bernard’s small frame scares me as he is more likely to get injured. I would avoid Giovani Bernard at his current ADP of 28th overall.

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