Pure Michigan 400 Fantasy NASCAR Analysis and Early Picks

Jun 14, 2015; Brooklyn, MI, USA; Sprint Cup Series driver Jeb Burton (26) races Sprint Cup Series driver Kasey Kahne (5) during the Quicken Loans 400 at Michigan International Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

Pure Michigan 400 Fantasy NASCAR Analysis and Early Picks

Whether you are a fantasy racing player or just a NASCAR fan, let us be your one stop shop for all the information you need to prepare you for NASCAR races in the 2015 season. Go to our Fantasy NASCAR Hub at https://fansided.com/category/nascar-fantasy/ and bookmark it!

If you haven’t joined DraftKings yet and want to play in their exciting contests, use this direct DraftKings Link to register with a minimum deposit of just $5 & get $25 of DK Cash! DraftKings will even match your initial deposit up to $600 – just click “Sign Up”!

MUST SEE: Pure Michigan 400 Preview

Now, let’s look at the Field.

Next: The Field: Race Entrants w/ DK Salaries

Race Entrants w/ Recalibrated DK Salaries

SEE: Fantasy NASCAR Scoring Changes on DraftKings effective 8/2!

NOTE: Due to DraftKings changing the number to entrants from 5 to 6 but keeping the salary cap at $50,000, the salaries will be lower than in previous contests.

#1 Jamie McMurray, Cessna/McDonald’s Chevrolet for $7,900
#2 Brad Keselowski, Miller Lite Ford for $9,600
#3 Austin Dillon, Dow Chevrolet for $7,300
#4 Kevin Harvick, Jimmy John’s/Budweiser Chevrolet for $10,600
#5 Kasey Kahne, Farmer’s Insurance Chevrolet for $8,200
#6 Trevor Bayne, AdvoCare Ford Fusion for $7,100
#7 Alex Bowman, Advanced Patient Care Chevrolet for $5,300
#9 Sam Hornish Jr., Transportation Impact Ford for $5,600
#10 Danica Patrick, GoDaddy Chevrolet for $7,200
#11 Denny Hamlin, FedEx Freight Toyota for $8,400
#13 Casey Mears GEICO Chevrolet SS for $7,200
#14 Tony Stewart, Mobil 1/Bass Pro Shops Chevrolet for $7,600
#15 Clint Bowyer, 5-Hour Energy Toyota for $7,400
#16 Greg Biffle, Ortho Ford Fusion for $7,100
#17 Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Zest Ford Fusion for $7,200
#18 Kyle Busch, Interstate Batteries Toyota for $10,500
#19 Carl Edwards, Arris Toyota for $9,000
#20 Matt Kenseth, Dollar General Toyota for $9,700
#21 Ryan Blaney, Motorcraft Ford for $7,300
#22 Joey Logano, Shell Pennzoil Ford for $9,600
#23 J.J. Yeley, Dr. Pepper Toyota for $5,300
#24 Jeff Gordon, Pepsi Chevrolet for $8,500
#26 Jeb Burton, Maxim Toyota for $5,200
#27 Paul Menard, Richmond/Menards Chevrolet for $7,800
#31 Ryan Newman, Caterpillar Chevrolet for $7,100
#32 Josh Wise, TBD Ford for $6,400
#33 Travis Kvapil, TBA Chevrolet for $5,300
#34 Brett Moffitt, CSX Play It Safe Ford for $5,300
#35 Cole Whitt, Dockside Ford for $5,400
#38 David Gilliland, MDS Transportation Ford for $5,700
#40 Landon Cassill, Snap Fitness Chevrolet for $5,300
#41 Kurt Busch, Haas Automation Chevrolet for $9,900
#42 Kyle Larson, Target Chevrolet for $8,100
#43 Aric Almirola, Armour Ford for $7,400
#46 Michael Annett, Pilot Flying J Chevrolet for $5,300
#47 A.J. Allendinger, Kroger/Scott’s Products Chevrolet for $7,400
#48 Jimmie Johnson, LOWES Chevrolet for $9,700
#51 Justin Allgaier, Brandt Chevrolet for $5,800
#55 David Ragan, Aaron’s Dream Machine Toyota for $7,300
#62 Reed Sorenson, TBA Chevrolet for $5,300
#78 Martin Truex Jr., Furniture Row Chevrolet for $9,600
#83 Matt DiBenedetto, Cosmo Motors Toyota for $5,300
#88 Dale Earnhardt Jr., Microsoft Chevrolet $9,300
#98 Josh Wise, Premium Motorsports Ford for $5,300

Next: Pure Michigan 400 Fantasy Strategy

Jun 14, 2015; Brooklyn, MI, USA; Sprint Cup Series driver Kyle Larson (42) races during the Quicken Loans 400 at Michigan International Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

Pure Michigan 400/Michigan International Speedway Fantasy Strategy: Although my race picks will not be released until after the final practice sessions on Saturday, here is a sneak peek at some of the trends that will factor into my selections. This also gives fantasy players some foundations to base their own fantasy research on.

This race is on a 2 mile oval that allows for the fastest racing in NASCAR. Big teams that roll out powerful engines tend to dominate.

Strongly consider drivers that have a good history in this race, especially after the surface here was repaved before the 2012 races. This results from the June race are pertinent but remember that it was race-shortened.

NASCAR is running the same high-drag package that was run at the Brickyard earlier this season. Toyota, especially JGR, seems to have mastered this set-up best.

Also consider drivers with a good history at the Fontana (another 2 mile oval), Pocono (another large track that favors strong engines), and Indianapolis (2015 high-drag package).

Chevrolet has mastered the last two Cup races at Michigan, winning both while finishing four of the Top 5 in the 2014 Pure Michigan 400 and grabbing the Top 3 positions in Quicken Loans 400 in June.

Leaders in average finish among drivers with 10+ starts: 1) Carl Edwards (9.2), Matt Kenseth (10.2), Tony Stewart (11.8), Greg Biffle (12.1), and Brad Keslowski (13.0).

Pole winners have done well here in the last 5 races, with a 5.4 average finish.

In the last two Cup races here, 8 drivers led multiple laps, a DK stat that is valuable.

Next: Preliminary Fantasy Picks prior to Qualifying

My Pre-Qualifying Favorites: As we know, qualifying order is extremely important in DraftKings scoring, but here are my favorites to win based solely on historical data, including factors mentioned in the last slide. These picks can be used for conventional fantasy NASCAR games where finishing position is all that matters.

#2 Brad Keselowski, Miller Lite Ford

#4 Kevin Harvick, Jimmy John’s/Budweiser Chevrolet

#78 Martin Truex Jr., Furniture Row Chevrolet

#14 Tony Stewart, Bass Pro Shops/Mobil 1 Chevrolet

#20 Matt Kenseth, Dollar General Toyota

I will release my final DraftKings-centric Picks on Saturday night after the Final Practice.

Next: General NASCAR Strategy for DraftKings Contests

Aug 9, 2015; Watkins Glen, NY, USA; Sprint Cup Series driver Dale Earnhardt Jr. (88) during the Cheez-It 355 at Watkins Glen International. Mandatory Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports

General DraftKings Strategy: The next thing to consider while filling out your teams is the DraftKings scoring system. DraftKings owners will draft a team of 6 drivers with a $50,000 Salary Cap. Scoring will be based on several factors including a driver’s Finishing Position, Place Differential, Fastest Laps, and Laps Led.

NEW NASCAR SCORING SYSTEM

More from DraftKings

The salaries used are set weekly for each contest before qualifying and practice and are based on the overall strength of each driver/team/car for that particular race. The calculations that DraftKings use to determine drivers’ salaries are based on a driver’s ability to score fantasy points and as such consider all the four aforementioned factors. Since NASCAR is a new Daily Fantasy game, DraftKings has made it easier for players to understand the scoring system by listing a driver’s Fantasy Points Per Race (FPPR) next to a driver’s salary that shows a driver’s performance to date (including 2015 races that did not have DK contests). The following are some of the factors that determine a driver’s salary and something that a fantasy player should look at:

A Driver and/or Team’s current level of speed and performance this season.
A Driver and/or Team’s history at that specific track and race.
A Driver and/or Team’s history at similar tracks and races.

Next: Why Wait Until After Practice/Qualifying to Make Picks?

Aug 9, 2015; Watkins Glen, NY, USA; Sprint Cup Series driver Joey Logano (22) celebrates a victory during the Cheez-It 355 at Watkins Glen International. Mandatory Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports

Because the DraftKings salaries are set prior to qualifying and practice, there are many things that can change a driver’s relative fantasy value before the race starts. Some things to consider:

Qualifying and practice speed are a good (but not the only) indicator of a driver’s projected performance and factor largely in a driver’s potential to maximize points in the Finish Position, Fastest Laps, and Laps Led categories.
The DraftKings points system is unique and emphasizes both in-race performance as well as finishing position. So it is paramount to target at least some drivers that start further back in the field yet can compete as a top-performing car. This will get you points in the Place Differential category.

We will be back on Saturday evening with our Pure Michigan 400 Fantasy Picks!

Need help with your daily or season-long fantasy NASCAR contests? Contact me on Twitter @Rich_Pelesky and I will give you the guidance you need to make the best fantasy decisions.