Fantasy Football: 8 Rookie Injuries to Watch

Apr 30, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; NFL commissioner Roger Goodell addresses the crowd in the first round of the 2015 NFL Draft at the Auditorium Theatre of Roosevelt University. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

Rookies are popular and problematic commodities on fantasy draft day. The potential for some of them is limitless, and their highlight reels in college can make them very difficult to pass up. At the same time, they are obviously unproven. Trying to predict which ones are going to succeed in their first year, and which are better left on the waiver wire, can be difficult to deduce for any fantasy player.

Injuries make these predictions even more difficult. Some players who struggle with injuries during training camp are showing you their true colors and you should avoid them completely. But then there’s the case of Odell Beckham, who disappointed in camp and was hampered by a hamstring injury a month into the season. And then he became the second coming of Randy Moss.

Regardless of the OBJ explosion, injured rookies have to be met with a very critical eye. Being aware of the extent of the injury and how it’s affected his camp is necessary for any fantasy player prepping for redraft leagues.

Don’t be that person in the draft room who drafts an injured player in the 6th round and gets mocked for the rest of the year. Here are the 8 most important rookie injuries, and where (if at all) you should consider taking them in your upcoming drafts.

Next: Todd Gurley's Knee

Apr 30, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Todd Gurley (Georgia) poses for a photo after being selected as the number 10th overall pick to the St. Louis Rams in the first round of the 2015 NFL Draft at the Auditorium Theatre of Roosevelt University. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

Todd Gurley

Of all the NFL rookies in this class, Todd Gurley might have the brightest prospect as a stud NFL player. But that doesn’t mean he will be a stud right out of the gate. He tore his ACL less than a year ago, and the Rams’ Head Coach Jeff Fischer seems content to take things slowly with Gurley. Gurley won’t be playing during the preseason, and will miss at least the first few weeks of the regular season. Of all the rookie injuries on the list, his seems likely to take the most time to recover from. He clearly isn’t someone you want as your RB2.

But in drafts so far, that’s exactly where he’s going. His ADP is currently at RB19, which is way too early for someone who you know is going to miss at least part of the season. While some of the other running backs around him have their own health issues (Andre Ellington, Jonathan Stewart), they have at least proven themselves as productive NFL running backs.

Although Gurley looks like he will one day be an incredible talent, this year isn’t the year to draft him unless his ADP drops into the RB4 range. He simply isn’t worth stashing when his return date is up in the air. And with Tre Mason as a formidable running back himself, the Rams have no reason to rush the rookie onto the field.

Next: Kevin White's Shin

Apr 30, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Kevin White (West Virginia) is selected as the number seven overall pick to the Chicago Bears in the first round of the 2015 NFL Draft at the Auditorium Theatre of Roosevelt University. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

Kevin White

I’m a big fan of Kevin White’s long-term prospects, but he, like Gurley, is a guy who I’d rather wait until next year to own on any of my redraft teams. Before camp even began, his rookie season production was capped by head coach John Fox’s penchant for putting very little workload on rookie wide receivers.

Now that he had shin surgery that could keep him out for a substantial portion of the season, he should be taken off of your predraft rankings completely. Between this injury and the other competent wide receivers able to step into the role (look for Marquess Wilson with a late pick in deeper drafts), he won’t be on the fantasy team that drafts him for the duration of the season. Don’t waste your pick on a guy with such little upside this season.

Next: Jay Ajayi's Hamstring

Dec 31, 2014; Glendale, AZ, USA; Boise State Broncos running back Jay Ajayi (27) against the Arizona Wildcats in the 2014 Fiesta Bowl at Phoenix Stadium. The Broncos defeated the Wildcats 38-30. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Jay Ajayi

Jay Ajayi is the first of four running backs I will discuss who is struggling with a hamstring injury, the most popular among rookie injuries apparently. Yet he is also the most concerning considering his injury history. Ajayi lost a ton of draft stock because NFL teams feared his knees. He might not have a long career in the NFL, but he could at least have a few productive fantasy seasons. Sadly, this year might not be one of them.

I’m not a doctor so I can’t diagnose whether this hamstring injury is a compensatory injury or if he just wasn’t conditioned enough before starting camp, but clearly seeing a guy with leg injuries in his history again injury his leg is not a great sign. Lamar Miller is a great running back who can maintain a high workload, even though the Dolphins love to give him less work than he deserves.

Ajayi has fallen in drafts since his injury, and is now at RB52, the 151st player off the board. Some running backs going around him include the terrible Andre Williams and other backups.

I don’t know if I’d even be comfortable drafting him here, but if you really like Ajayi’s talent and he gets on the field during the preseason, taking a flyer this late on him could benefit you later on in the season. Whether or not you have the patience to sit him on your bench is another story.

Next: Tevin Coleman's Hamstring

Nov 29, 2014; Bloomington, IN, USA; Indiana Hoosiers running back Tevin Coleman (6) runs the ball during the third quarter against the Purdue Boilermakers at Memorial Stadium. Indiana defeated Purdue 23-16. Mandatory Credit: Pat Lovell-USA TODAY Sports

Tevin Coleman

I’m not sure what’s going on, but the preponderance of rookie injuries regarding legs is quite perplexing. Yet it’s not only rookies suffering from them. Coleman’s main competition for playing time, sophomore Davonta Freeman, is missing camp alongside Coleman with the same injury. Back-up Atlanta RB Antone Smith also injured his hamstring during their first preseason game.

Coleman should be back on the field soon, along with Freeman. Coleman is probably more likely to be able to handle a full-time workload because of Freeman’s small frame, but that doesn’t mean that Freeman won’t get the first shot as the starter. The share of rushes on the Falcons probably won’t be clear-cut for weeks into the season, provided no one gets seriously hurt.

Tevin Coleman is going much sooner than most of the other running backs on this list because he has the best opportunity to be a starter this year. He’s also on an incredibly potent offense. But he needs to get on the field in order to prove that he deserves the starting reps. If you’re drafting him as your RB2, you will almost surely be disappointed.

No running back after the top echelon are sure things, and the bust rates are tremendous. So if you feel strongly about Coleman’s ability and/or Freeman’s lack of ability, take him as an RB3. He could become a strong flex play.

Next: Breshad Perriman's Knee

Apr 30, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Breshad Perriman (Central Florida) is selected as the number twenty-six overall pick to the Baltimore Ravens in the first round of the 2015 NFL Draft at the Auditorium Theatre of Roosevelt University. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

Breshad Perriman

Full disclosure: I was not a Breshad Perriman fan before training camp began. Now that he’s a very very raw talent who is missing out on valuable training camp reps, I dislike him even more as a fantasy player for the 2015 season. While John Harbaugh says he will return by the begining of the season, there is no set timetable.

It’s true that there isn’t really other options that are going to be permanent fixtures in the Torrey Smith role that Perriman was drafted to fill, but he still is just not a good enough receiver for me to get behind, especially now that he’s suffering a knee injury. He’s going at WR43, so it’s not a crazy investment for a guy with enough speed to score some long touchdowns, but there are tons of players with more upside around his ADP that I’d rather have. John Brown, for instance, proved that he can actually succeed as a deep-ball threat, and is going 7 picks later. Get him instead.

Next: Two Johnsons' Hamstrings

Oct 11, 2014; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Miami Hurricanes running back Duke Johnson (8) runs with the ball in the second half of a game against the Cincinnati Bearcats at Sun Life Stadium. The Hurricanes won 55-34. Mandatory Credit: Robert Mayer-USA TODAY Sports

Duke Johnson (Cleveland Browns) and David Johnson (Arizona Cardinals)

Just like Ajayi and Coleman, the two rookie Johnson running backs (no relation) are also hampered with hamstring injuries. Which is a shame, because also like Coleman, Duke and David both have stiff-yet-vulnerable competition at their position.

David Johnson has to usurp the starting role from Andre Ellington, who is injury prone himself. But if David Johnson can’t first overcome his own injuries (he hasn’t even practiced with pads yet), the Cardinals staff may not trust him enough to give him the starting role.

There have even been reports of the Cardinals bringing Chris Johnson in any day now. While he isn’t a good running back, it shows that the Cardinals don’t feel great about their current roster at the position.

Duke Johnson isn’t in quite as dire of a situation as David when it comes to his injury. Coaches say he should be back on the practice field soon he is expected to be ready to get his first game action on August 29 against Tampa Bay.

However, Duke Johnson has more competition for playing time this year. Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West, one and two on the depth chart, both were on the team and had some good performances last season. Duke Johnson will have to show some great progress during the final few weeks of training camp to get playing time opportunities.

Both running backs also have very similar ADPs, RB42 and 44 for Duke and David, respectively. This is backup and handcuff territory, so taking players like the Johnsons with high upside but high risk makes sense here. If you have a strong enough group of three running backs and can let these guys ride the bench until oppourtnities arise, they are smart late-round investments.

Next: DeVante Parker's Foot

Apr 30, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; DeVante Parker (Louisville) poses for a photo after being selected as the number 14th overall pick to the Miami Dolphins in the first round of the 2015 NFL Draft at the Auditorium Theatre of Roosevelt University. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

DeVante Parker

Last but not least of the rookie injuries is Dolphins’ wide receiver DeVante Parker. Parker is coming off foot surgery, and as a rookie in a crowded and talented wide receiever corps, he might struggle to really produce early on in the season as Ryan Tannehill gets used to all his new options.

While it’s obviously always concerning when a player has surgery, there is optimism within the Dolphins staff that Parker will be a part of the offense when week one of the regular season comes around. But how much can you trust a rookie receiver with minimal practice time?

Parker is a very popular player with fantasy football experts, and in your regular league with your school/work friends, chances are you’ll be able to get him at a much lower price than his ADP of WR50. But even if you have to spend the 129th pick on him, he could benefit your team. He is a true talent and has the potential to be the most productive rookie wide receiver, aside from Amari Cooper.

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