Avoid These 5 Landmine Players During Your Fantasy Draft

Nov 23, 2014; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson (84) returns a kickoff against the Green Bay Packers in the first quarter at TCF Bank Stadium. The Green Bay Packers win 24-21. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Fantasy draft season is back! Every year there are players that are over valued due to off-season hype. Those players are considered landmine players because they look appealing, but when you select them, they blow up in your face.

Players last season that were land mines:

Cordarrele Patterson

Trent Richardson

Pierre Garcon

Greg Jennings

Bishop Sankey

Robert Griffin III

How do you recognize a landmine player? Well, there are characteristics players have that demonstrate a player’s potential to become a bust. Most of these characteristics elevate the risk of the player, which the average drafter wouldn’t take into consideration. Health, experience, and change in coaching staff are some indicators on whether a player could be a potential bust.

Next: First Landmine

Jul 30, 2015; Owings Mills, MD, USA; Baltimore Ravens running back Justin Forsett (29) carries the ball during drills on day one of training camp at Under Armour Performance Center. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Justin Forsett, RB Baltimore Ravens

Last season Justin Forsett rushed for 1266 yards and 8 touchdowns while catching 44 passes for 263 yards. Forsett appears to be penciled in as the workhorse back. What makes Forsett extra appealing is that Baltimore hired offensive coordinator Marc Trestman during the off-season. He has a history of getting his running backs involved in the passing game. Matt Forte caught 102 receptions in Trestman’s scheme last season, which is very exciting for a Forsett owner.

The Risks

Approaching age 30
Injury risk/ Small running back (5-8 190)
Small sample size of production

It’s not that Forsett can’t finish as a top-10 back this season. The question is can he hold up for another full season? The odds are against him. He’s a smaller back who is going to be 30 years old in October. Another season with a full workload increases his chance for injury.

Forsett only has one season out of his seven year career that has been productive. That’s something you have to take into consideration when you select him in your fantasy draft. He has the ability to be a top back this season, but can he live up to his potential?

Forsett has an ADP of 22, which means he’s a late second round or early third round draft pick in most fantasy leagues. That’s a heavy investment to pay on a running back that isn’t a safe investment.

Players being selected after Forsett:

Randall Cobb
Alshon Jeffery
T.Y. Hilton

All three of these receivers are safer options when it comes to fantasy production when compared to Forsett.

Next: Second Landmine

Jul 30, 2015; Oxnard, CA, USA; Dallas Cowboys running back Joseph Randle (21) during training camp at River Ridge Fields. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Joseph Randle, RB Dallas Cowboys

DeMarco Murray took his talents to Philadelphia, and the Dallas Cowboys failed to address the running back position during the off-season, leaving a large void at the position. Insert Joseph Randle. Dallas drafted him in the fifth round during the 2013 NFL Draft. He rushed for 343 yards and 3 touchdowns last season.

The Risks

Inexperienced
Smaller running back
Competition

Randle only has 105 career carries going into this season. That is a really small sample size. He rushed for 6.7 yards per attempt last season on 51 carries, but he rushed for 3.0 yards per attempt on 54 carries the season before. We don’t know if Randle can handle a large workload.

The narrative is that anyone can run behind the Dallas offensive line. What if their offensive line faces a lot of injuries this season? It’s very common for offensive lines to get banged up during the season. When you’re drafting Randle you’re not only worried about him getting injured, but you have to worry about the offensive line.

Randle is 6-0 and he weighs 205 pounds. That’s a very low BMI. Will he be able to hold up with out getting injured if he does get a full workload this season? The odds are against it.

Randle is going to face competition for touches. Darren McFadden is going to get a market share of the touches, and so is Lance Dunbar. Don’t rule out Dallas signing a back either. He has an ADP of 31, which is an early-mid third round pick. That’s a heavy investment to make on a running back that isn’t proven.

Players being selected after Randle:

Brandin Cooks
Jordan Matthews
Peyton Manning

Next: Landmine #3

Dec 21, 2014; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (10) before a game against the Baltimore Ravens at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

DeAndre Hopkins, WR Houston Texans

Hopkins is going to be the main wide receiver in Houston. Andre Johnson left during free agency to join the Indianapolis Colts. Hopkins caught 76 passes for 1,210 yards and 6 touchdowns last year. Can he build upon what he did last year?

The Risks

Can he be the #1 wide receiver for the Texans?
Arian Foster injury
Bad Quarterback play

Can Hopkins maintain his productivity with Andre Johnson gone? I think he can, but it’s still a risk that we have to take in account when drafting him. Factoring that he has an ADP of 37, which makes him a late-third to an early-fourth round pick in drafts.

Arian Foster will miss a good portion of the season due to an injury. Hopkins averages 11.36 fantasy points per game when he is playing with Foster in the lineup, and he averages 6.79 points per game when Foster is not in the lineup. His fantasy production is almost cut in half when Foster is not in the lineup. Could Foster’s injury affect him in 2015?

The Texans are entertaining a cocktail of Ryan Mallet and Brian Hoyer at quarterback this season. That’s not very enticing. Hopkins needs to deliver at least high-end WR2 numbers in order for you to get the return on your investment. No matter how good the wide receiver is, bad quarterback play can kill the receiver’s fantasy value.

players being selected after Hopkins:

Jordan Matthews
Golden Tate
Keenan Allen

Hopkins is as talented, if not more talented then all three of these wide receivers. The difference between them is that Hopkins’ offense doesn’t have the passing volume to compete with the other three wide receivers.

Next: Landmine #4

Aug 21, 2015; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Jets wide receiver Brandon Marshall (15) runs with the ball during the first half of their game against the Atlanta Falcons at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports

Brandon Marshall, WR New York Jets

During the off season the Bears traded Brandon Marshall to the Jets. Marshall gets to claim New York as his new home. The new scenery is going to impact his fantasy output this season. Is it going to be for the better or for the worse?

The Risks

Age
Quarterback Play

Marshall has an ADP of 58.7, which slots him as a mid-late fifth round draft pick in fantasy leagues. Marshall is one of those players who has a big name that has generated a lot of fantasy success over his career. Marshall had an injury riddled season last year, and his age is going start showing when it comes to his fantasy production. A lot of drafters are selecting Marshall due to name recognition without thinking about the risk that comes along with him.

Quarterback play is a big deal when it comes to fantasy success, and Marshall will be receiving passes from either Geno Smith or Ryan Fitzpatrick this season. Neither quaterback is very exciting. If I’m going to invest in the Jets receiving corps, then I’m going to push my chips in on Eric Decker whose ADP is 127, which is in the 11th round. He has the talent to provide WR2 production, like Marshall, but he’s half the price.

Players being selected after Marshall:

Greg Olsen
Allen Robinson
Matt Ryan

All of these players are better selections. We know what we are going to get with Ryan and Olsen,. They are pretty safe when it comes to predicting their production. Robinson has some risk, but he has WR1 upside, and his floor is relatively high because he gets a lot of targets.

Next: Landmine #5

Feb 1, 2015; Glendale, AZ, USA; New England Patriots running back LeGarrette Blount (29) celebrates after the game against the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XLIX at University of Phoenix Stadium. The Patriots defeated the Seahawks 28-24. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

LeGarrette Blount, RB New England Patriots

Blount is going to be one of the main running backs in New England’s committee of backs. He is going to get a lot of the goal line and early down work.

The Risks

Week to Week Volatility
Market Share of Touches

He’s going to have limited use in the passing game. His touches are going to be up and down on a week to week basis because of how the team likes to utilize multiple running backs at the position. One week Blount could be a focal point of the offense; the next week he may only get 10 touches.

This isn’t a horrible situation because he can still hold a lot of value on your team. The premium of a fifth round pick to obtain him during the draft is what will kill your team. It’s going to be hard to play him every week because you don’t know how he’s going to be used.

Cheaper running back alternatives:

Ryan Matthews

Tevin Coleman

Joique Bell

All three of these running backs present the same risk with the same upside as Blount. The difference is that they are a couple rounds cheaper.

Please follow me on Twitter for @Bmatz08 for free 24/7 fantasy advice.

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