College Football Odds & Predictions For September 3

As some of you already know, I pick every 1-A vs. 1-A game against the spread for the entire season. I have been doing this for six years now, and try to improve every year.

What I do is take the mean of the average odds at the top five Vegas Casinos and pick against that spread. I will round to the nearest half point so as to avoid picking against even numbers. This way I either win or lose each game. Ties are for hockey!

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Two years ago I set a preseason goal of 55%. I finished at 55.03%. Last year, I set a goal of 57%. I thought I could pull it off since I had my best season the previous year. I finished at 45.6%. Ipromise you that this is not as easy as it looks! There are nearly 700 FCS vs. FCS games every year!

Last year was a humbling experience, but I did well on the games that I was most confident in. This year I will assign a point value on each game so you all know which games I am most confident in. This will not affect my score, it is just a guide to what I feel most confident in.

The point scale will go like this:

5. A lock. I am comfortable making a sizable wager on this game.

4. Very confident. Not quite a lock, but I am comfortable making a decent sized wager on it.

3. Middle of the road. Good enough that I would make a small wager on it.

2. Could go either way. So much so that I wouldn’t bet on it.

1. Stay away from these.

This year I am going to do things a little differently. Instead of one big post put up the day before the first game of the week, I am going to break it up more. I will not put Saturday’s odds up until Friday to get a more accurate spread whenever possible.

Take note that any games that involve 1-AA teams will NOT be picked. There simply is not enough information to get an accurate spread.

I have been waiting for a shot at redemption for eight long months! Finally, my shot is here! Here are my college football odds & predictions for September 3.

North Carolina (-2.5) vs. South Carolina at Charlotte(3): This line looks backwards. I know that South Carolina lost quite a bit of talent from last year, and has an unproven QB, but there is still NFL talent on this team. Particularly at the corners, who will force Marquise Williams into a mistake or two. Besides, Pharoh Cooper is probably the best WR in the conference with Amari Cooper gone. All Connor Mitch needs to do is get in in the same zip code as him. Give me the Gamecocks. The only reason this game is a three instead of higher is because the Gamecocks got clobbered by A&M in last year’s opener. I’m superstitious like that.

Florida International at Central Florida(-13.5)(4): This line opened at -17, and I am not sure why it is falling. Justin Holman proved that he was a capable replacement for Blake Bortles last year. FIU was 4-8 last year playing in a rather shallow Conference USA. This one reeks of a blowout. Give me UCF.

Oklahoma State(-23.5) at Central Michigan(3): Look at that! A major conference team going on the road to a MAC school. That isn’t something you see every day. The Chippewas also don’t see an offense like this every day. The Cowboys hit their stride once Mason Rudolph took over as the QB. Imagine what they could be like with him at the helm for a full season. This is a large line, but I’m taking Okie State until I have a reason not to.

Western Kentucky(-2.5) at Vanderbilt(4): This game has seen a huge swing in the odds so far. Vanderbilt opened at a 17.5 point favorite. That is a 20 point swing! I wish I would have taken this line at Vandy -17.5. I would have won enough to finance the rest of my season. I got it at Vandy -7, and I am still very comfortable taking the Hilltoppers to win straight up. I wouldn’t take them for more than 6.5 though.

Michigan at Utah(-4.5)(2): Michigan is impossible to pick right now. They won’t be the lost souls that they were under lame-duck coach Brady Hoke, but will they be good enough to oust the Utes on the road? I doubt it. That said, I wouldn’t bet on it either. Give me Utah, but I’m not sure how confident I am in that pick.

(2)TCU(-16.5) at Minnesota(2): TCU returns most of a good team that nearly won the Big 12 last year, and one that blasted a top ten Ole Miss team in the Peach Bowl. Their defense is very good, and their offense should be explosive. Now, Minnesota is not a bad team. I have them winning the Big Ten West. Yes, this year that is roughly the equivalent of winning the Sun Belt, but can TCU dominate them on the road even though they didn’t really last year at home? I think this stays fairly close. Give me the Gophers.

Ohio(-7.5) at Idaho(4): Road game or not, this is way too low. The Vandals were one of the worst defensive teams last year. They don’t look any better on paper this year. Ohio rolls!

Duke(-7.5) at Tulane(4): Yes, Duke has a new quarterback, and lost their best two receivers. The line has dropped six points to compensate that. And this is a road game. Still, Tulane is not a very good team. Duke can run the ball with Shaq Powell and still dominate the game. Give me the Blue Devils.

UTSA at (22)Arizona(-31.5)(2): UTSA graduated a staggering 57% of last year’s team that put scares into Oklahoma State and Arizona last year. Still, this is not the same Arizona team. They are one of the best offenses in the land, and they are facing almost an entirely new defense. My confidence in this is low because I don’t know if Arizona will play their starters at all in the second half. The Wildcats will coast. I’m just hoping that they don’t let completely off the gas because I’m still taking them!

Colorado(-7.5) at Hawaii(3): Give me a break. The Warriors are tough to cover at home, and the Ralphies are poised for another last place Pac 12 finish. Give me Hawaii.

Come back later on for the Friday picks. The Saturday picks will be staggered, but I will have all of them up before kickoff of the early games for you parlayers!

Next: NCAA FanDuel Picks For September 3

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