As some of you already know, I pick every 1-A vs. 1-A game against the spread for the entire season. I have been doing this for six years now, and try to improve every year.
What I do is take the mean of the average odds at the top five Vegas Casinos and pick against that spread. I will round to the nearest half point so as to avoid picking against even numbers. This way I either win or lose each game. Ties are for hockey!
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Two years ago I set a preseason goal of 55%. I finished at 55.03%. Last year, I set a goal of 57%. I thought I could pull it off since I had my best season the previous year. I finished at 45.6%. Ipromise you that this is not as easy as it looks! There are nearly 700 FCS vs. FCS games every year!
Last year was a humbling experience, but I did well on the games that I was most confident in. This year I will assign a point value on each game so you all know which games I am most confident in. This will not affect my score, it is just a guide to what I feel most confident in.
The point scale will go like this:
5. A lock. I am comfortable making a sizable wager on this game.
4. Very confident. Not quite a lock, but I am comfortable making a decent sized wager on it.
3. Middle of the road. Good enough that I would make a small wager on it.
2. Could go either way. So much so that I wouldn’t bet on it.
1. Stay away from these.
Take note that any games that involve 1-AA teams will NOT be picked. There simply is not enough information to get an accurate spread.
I have been waiting for a shot at redemption for eight long months! Finally, my shot is here! Here are my college football odds & predictions for September 4. You can find the picks for September 3 here.
(5)Michigan State(-17.5) at Western Michigan(4): I am really not sure why this line is falling. Perhaps the biggest story here is that the MAC is playing host to another major conference team. The Spartans lost leading rusher Jeremy Langford and the top two receivers in Tony Lippett and Keith Mumphrey to the NFL, but starting QB Connor Cook returns. Give me Sparty.
(4)Baylor(-36.5) at SMU(2): I hate lines this big. Baylor is very capable of covering this, and they destroyed SMU 45-0 in Waco last year basically without Bryce Petty. Seth Russell looked good at times last year, and Shock Linwood might be the best RB in the conference. Yes, maybe even better than Samaje Perine. I’m still taking Baylor.
Kent State at Illinois(-14.5)(1): This line is a joke! Illinois just had their coach fired, and lost to a MAC team last year. Kent is not a strong team, and Wes Lunt might be the best pure passer in the Big Ten West, but I still don’t see the Illini covering this. Give me Kent.
Washington at (23)Boise State(-12.5)(2): This looks a bit too high. Washington has a few high profile recruits, but how many can help this quickly? RB Myles Gaskin might, but can he supplant Lavon Coleman? The Huskies have a lot of questions, but they also have a lot of talent. I don’t like the line because of that. Give me Washington, I guess.
Stay tuned for all of the weekend picks!
Next: ESPN College Pick Em Picks For Week 1
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