College Football Odds & Predictions Late Week 1

If you are new to this, I pick every FCS vs. FCS game for the entire season. If that is not enough, I do it against the spread!

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Here are the earlier picks of the week, in case you missed any.

Thursday

Friday

Early Saturday

This year I will assign a point value on each game so you all know which games I am most confident in. This will not affect my score, it is just a guide to what I feel most confident in.

The point scale will go like this:

5. A lock. I am comfortable making a sizable wager on this game.

4. Very confident. Not quite a lock, but I am comfortable making a decent sized wager on it.

3. Middle of the road. Good enough that I would make a small wager on it.

2. Could go either way. So much so that I wouldn’t bet on it.

1. Stay away from these.

Take note that any games that involve 1-AA teams will NOT be picked. There simply is not enough information to get an accurate spread.

Here are my college football odds & predictions for the rest of Week 1:

Troy at North Carolina State(-25.5)(2): Wow, this is a big line. I hate big lines, especially in week one. Then again, Troy only won three games last year, and two of those were over bottom fivers Idaho and New Mexico State. And they lost to Abilene Christian. Give me the Wolfpack.

(15)Arizona State at Texas A&M(-3.5)(3): Arizona State was arguably better last year with Mike Bercovici under center. He is the unquestioned starter there this year. The Aggie defense is also not a particularly strong unit. This will likely be a shootout and a close game, but the Pac 12 is going to show just how close they are to the SEC in this one. Sun Devils straight up!

Louisiana-Lafayette at Kentucky(-16.5)(2): This is another line that has risen steadily. Kentucky has a lot of talent on the offensive side of the ball, and they seem to be improving every year. The Terrance Broadway era is over in Lafayette. Broadway was a great leader and player for this team. I expect the Cajuns to come out flat, and Kentucky to cover this.

Akron at (19)Oklahoma(-31.5)(3): This line has dropped nearly a touchdown, and I’m not sure why. Oklahoma has arguably the best back in the Big 12(10) in Samaje Perine, and they actually have a quarterback that can throw in Texas Tech transfer Baker Mayfield. There is too much talent on the field for them not to cover this. Give me Oklahoma.

Texas at (11)Notre Dame(-9.5)(4): This line was up as high as 12.5 at one time. I still think it is too high. The Irish struggled without Everett Golson two years ago, and they likely will again. This defense gave up 30 or more in each of their last five games of 2014, including an embarrassing loss to Northwestern. Texas is not nearly as bad as they were last year. This is too many, and I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if Texas won straight up. Give me Bevo!

Georgia Southern at West Virginia(-20.5)(2): This is a tough one because the Eagles were notorious for not getting covered last year. That said, the Mountaineers have beaten a lot of team that they shouldn’t (on paper at least) in Morgantown. They are definitely going to come close to covering this. Tails. Georgia Southern it is.

New Mexico State at Florida(-36.5)(1): The Gators are going to be better than they were last year. When Treon Harris played a lot down the stretch, the Gators scared a lot of teams, and even won a couple they probably shouldn’t have. That said, I simply don’t trust their offense enough to cover this. Give me the Aggies.

UNLV at Northern Illinois(-23.5)(2): This is too many. UNLV returns most of the offensive skill players from a decent unit. Drew Hare is progressing nicely in the Huskies’ offense, and he doesn’t make mistakes, but losing Cameron Stingily hurts. I will say about 42-21 or so, but I think UNLV doesn’t get covered. Just barely.

(20)Wisconsin vs. (3)Alabama(-11.5) at Jerry World(4): This one is all over the place. It shouldn’t be. Alabama may have lost several players to the NFL, but they had the best bench in college last year. Wisconsin still has Joel Stave at QB, and I have a hard time believing that Corey Clement can replace Melvin Gordon. He is a good back, but what will the Badgers have behind him? To me, Wisconsin has a few more question marks than Alabama. Give me the Tide.

Texas State at (10)Florida State(-29.5)(3): This line is likely too low. Just a hunch, but I think that Golson will be better in this offense than Jameis Winston was, and the Seminoles shouldn’t have to put up with the circus that came with Winston. The Seminoles make a statement here and have this covered by halftime.

Mississippi State(-20.5) at Southern Mississippi(3): Dak Prescott can cover this by himself. The Eagles won’t be as bad as they were last year, but I highly doubt they can stay within three touchdowns.

Arkansas State at (8)USC(-27.5)(3): The Trojans still loaded despite losing Buck Allen and Nelson Agholor to the NFL. JuJu Smith is just the next in line of good USC receivers, and Cody Kessler is still there to throw it to him. They shouldn’t have any trouble covering this against an overmatched Red Wolves squad.

Purdue at Marshall(-7.5)(2): How far have the Boilermakers fallen? They are more than a TD dog to a CUSA team! You know what? It is probably warranted. I really don’t like the half, but I want to see Purdue show signs of life before I pick them. I’m taking Marshall at home.

(1)Ohio State(-14.5) at Virginia Tech(3): Come on now! Revenge is sweet and all, and Ohio State has better quarterbacks than the rest of the Big Ten(14) combined, but that doesn’t mean they are going to march into Blacksburg and punk the Hokies. Tech is going to be ready just like they were last year. I don’t think they win, but I damn sure think they stay within two touchdowns! Give me Virginia Tech!

Stay tuned for tomorrow’s FanDuel picks, and check back next week to see how good or bad I did with these picks!

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