Fantasy Football: Which Top Ten Back Will Bust

Today we are going to take a look and try to figure out which back currently ranked in the season’s top ten list will wind up busting. If you have played much fantasy football then you know that someone who you draft real early will wind up either getting hurt or just flaking out. So how can we figure out who to be safe to draft? Is there a way we can see this coming on and maybe be able to trade off a guy we should not have drafted?

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First of all let us take a quick look at who is in the top ten running back list that we will stud for this post. For this post we will use ESPN.com’s positional top 300 PPR list. The list goes like this: Le’Veon Bell, Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, Eddie Lacy, Marshawn Lynch, C.J. Anderson, Matt Forte, LeSean McCoy, Jeremy Hill, and Justin Forsett.

Now what we will do is try to talk about who we think might fall off of this list. Obviously we have no way to find out if someone is going to get hurt and fall off. So with that said let us look into some situations and how they played last year to see if we can clue in and get some insight that we might not have otherwise known. I am just going to start at the top and work my way down with my thoughts as to whether or not I think they can sustain the value they are being drafted at.

Le’Veon Bell: Simply put, yes I think that Bell will easily live up to his value and be a huge stud and fantasy difference maker.

Adrian Peterson: Here is another guy that I think will easily be a stud and fantasy difference maker. He always has been and is coming off a pretty restful year. I see no reason for him to fall off this year.

Jamaal Charles: I think that most likely, Charles will continue to provide the value that he was drafted with. I have seen him go first or second overall and I could not take him over either AP or Bell. I don’t think Charles will fall off this year.

Eddie Lacy: I think this guy could actually go either way. This offense takes a huge blow with losing Jordy Nelson for the year and it could impact Lacy. I think he’s still a top five back, but I guess the warning lights could be flashing.

Marshawn Lynch: Now this is where I start to get worried. Lynch is beginning to pile up the mileage and has taken a beating over the past couple of years. He is 29 and heading into his ninth season and he is not getting younger. He also has a large stock of talent nipping at his heels

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C.J. Anderson: I am not real worried about this cat. I expect a pretty solid season out of Anderson and would probably prefer him to both Lynch and Lacy.

Matt Forte: This is another guy that I think will probably not be a top ten guy once the season is in the books. Forte really scares me this year and I think the Bears may have a very weird season ahead of them.

LeSean McCoy: As long as he can stay healthy, he is most likely a lock to be a top ten back. My hope is that this injury talk in over rated and I can acquire him on the cheap and see him have a great season.

Jeremy Hill: I am slightly afraid that Giovani Bernard an cut into his workload a little bit, but chances are Hill and his fantasy value is safe. The better guess here is that Hill will continue to shine and be an even higher rated back at season’s end.

Justin Forsett: Forsett will likely return top ten back value just based on usage alone. Even if he splits reps with someone, he should be the safer back and be safe.

So to sum it all up, if I was drafting today and what I have done so far has been to avoid drafting Forte and Lynch. There is a 100% chance that at least one or two of the guys that I presume to be safe will get injured or possibly even lose their job and fall off of this list, but with the information that we have today I feel very safe drafting those players.

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