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Federated Auto Parts 400 Fantasy NASCAR Analysis and Early Picks

By Rich Pelesky

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Sep 6, 2014; Richmond, VA, USA; Sprint Cup Series driver Brad Keselowski (2) poses with the NASCAR Sprint Cup after the Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond International Raceway. Mandatory Credit: John Harrelson- Richmond International Raceway/Pool Photo via USA TODAY Sports

Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond Fantasy NASCAR Analysis and Early Picks

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GET MY FINAL FEDERATED AUTO PARTS 400 FANTASY PICKS FOR DRAFTKINGS

Now, let’s look at the Field.

Next: Federated Auto Parts 400 Race Entrants w/ DK Salaries

Sep 6, 2014; Richmond, VA, USA; Sprint Cup Series driver Denny Hamlin (11) walks onto the stage during the ceremony honoring the 16 drivers who qualify for the Chase for the Sprint Cup after the Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond International Raceway. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-USA TODAY Sports

Race Entrants w/ Recalibrated DK Salaries

SEE: Fantasy NASCAR Scoring Changes on DraftKings effective 8/2!

NOTE: Due to DraftKings changing the number to entrants from 5 to 6 but keeping the salary cap at $50,000, the salaries will be lower than in some previous contests.

  1. #1 Jamie McMurray, Cessna Chevrolet for $8,200
  2. #2 Brad Keselowski, Miller Lite Ford for $11,200
  3. #3 Austin Dillon, Dow Chevrolet for $6,600
  4. #4 Kevin Harvick, Budweiser/Jimmy John’s Chevrolet for $11,400
  5. #5 Kasey Kahne, HendrickRideAlong.com Chevrolet for $7,800
  6. #6 Trevor Bayne, AdvoCare Ford Fusion for $5,700
  7. #7 Alex Bowman, Tommy Baldwin Racing Chevrolet for $5,400
  8. #9 Sam Hornish Jr., Go Bowling/DraftKings Ford for $5,900
  1. #10 Danica Patrick, GoDaddy Chevrolet for $5,800
  2. #11 Denny Hamlin, FedEx Express Toyota for $9,500
  3. #13 Casey Mears GEICO Chevrolet SS for $5,900
  4. #14 Tony Stewart, Bass Pro Shops/Mobil 1 Chevrolet for $7,200
  5. #15 Clint Bowyer, 5 Hour Energy Toyota for $7,500
  6. #16 Greg Biffle, Cheez-It Ford Fusion for $6,800
  7. #17 Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Cargill Ford Fusion for $5,800
  8. #18 Kyle Busch, M&M’s Crispy Chocolate Toyota for $10,800
  9. #19 Carl Edwards, Arris Toyota for $9,800
  10. #20 Matt Kenseth, Dollar General Toyota for $10,100
  11. #22 Joey Logano, Shell Pennzoil Ford for $10,400
  12. #23 Jeb Burton, Estes Toyota for $5,400
  13. #24 Jeff Gordon, 3M Chevrolet for $8,500
  14. #26 J.J. Yeley, Dr. Pepper Toyota for $5,400
  15. #27 Paul Menard, Libman/Menards Chevrolet for $6,700
  16. #30 Josh Wise, Curtis Key Plumbing for $5,100
  17. #31 Ryan Newman, Caterpillar Chevrolet for $7,700
  18. #32 Jeffrey Earnhardt, CORVETTEPARTS.NET Ford for $5,100
  19. #33 Brian Scott, Shore Lodge Chevrolet for $5,200
  20. #34 Brett Moffitt, Dockside Ford for $5,200
  21. #35 Cole Whitt, MDS Ford for $5,300
  22. #38 David Gilliland, The Pete Store Ford for $5,600
  23. #40 Landon Cassill, Precon Marine Chevrolet for $5,500
  24. #41 Kurt Busch, Haas Automation Chevrolet for $9,800
  25. #42 Kyle Larson, Target Chevrolet for $8,000
  26. #43 Aric Almirola, Smithfield Foods/Waffle House Ford for $6,100
  27. #46 Michael Annett, Switch Hitch Chevrolet for $5,500
  28. #47 A.J. Allendinger, Kroger/Bush’s Beans Chevrolet for $6,000
  29. #48 Jimmie Johnson, Lowe’s Chevrolet for $8,900
  30. #51 Justin Allgaier, Brandt Chevrolet for $5,600
  31. #55 David Ragan, Ol’ Aaron’s Dream Machine Toyota for $6,400
  32. #62 Reed Sorenson, Premium Motorsports Chevrolet for $5,200
  33. #78 Martin Truex Jr., Furniture Row Chevrolet for $8,800
  34. #83 Matt DiBenedetto, James Madison University Toyota for $5,300
  35. #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr., Nationwide Chevrolet for $8,800
  36. #95 Michael McDowell, Thrivent Financial Motorsports Ford for $5,200
  37. #98 Timmy Hill, Premium Motorsports Ford for $5,300

Next: Federated Auto Parts 400 Fantasy Strategy

Sep 11, 2015; Richmond, VA, USA; Xfinity Series driver Regan Smith (7) and driver Chase Elliott (9) lead cars across after a caution during the Virginia College Savings 250 at Richmond International Raceway. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-USA TODAY Sports

Richmond Fantasy Strategy: Although my race picks will not be released until after the final practice sessions on Saturday, here is a sneak peek at some of the trends that will factor into my selections. This also gives fantasy players some foundations to base their own fantasy research on.

This race is on NASCAR Cup Series’ only 3/4 Mile Track. Strongly consider drivers that have a good history at this track, especially in the Spring Race and in recent years with the Gen 6 cars.

Also, consider drivers that have a good history at these other oval racetracks less than 1 mile in length: Bristol, Dover, Martinsville, and Phoenix.

This race has dominated by one driver the last two times, with the Spring 2015 winner Kurt Busch leading 291 of the 400 laps & Brad Keslowski winning from the poll last year while leading a whopping 383 laps.

This could be the week where JGR dominance ends (WARNING: You have heard that before) as Matt Kenseth is their only driver to finish in the Top 10 in any of the last 3 Richmond races.

Five entrants have 3 or more career wins at Richmond International Raceway led by Kyle Busch (4) then Kevin Harvick (3), Tony Stewart (3), Dale Earnhart Jr. (3), and Jimmie Johnson (3).

Leaders in average finish at Bristol among the drivers: 1) Kyle Busch (7.4), Kevin Harvick (10.7), Denny Hamlin (11.1), Ryan Newman (11.2) and Clint Boywer (11.4).

Track position was  very important in Richmond’s last Cup race as 3 of the Top 5 finishers started 5th or better. However, Jimmie Johnson did start 36th and finished 3rd.

Remember that this is the last race before the Chase – Factor in each driver’s position in the standings and how that could effect their race strategy. For example, Drivers with wins along with drivers that can’t qualify with points will be riskier than drivers like Paul Menard and Clint Bowyer who only need a mediocre finish to clinch a berth in the playoffs.

Chevrolet has been very competitive recently, finishing 13 of the Top 16 in the 2015 Spring race and placing 8 in the Top 12 in the 2014 Federated Auto Parts 400.

Next: Preliminary Fantasy Picks prior to Qualifying

Sep 11, 2015; Richmond, VA, USA; Sprint Cup Series driver Kyle Busch (18) during practice for the Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond International Raceway. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-USA TODAY Sports

My Pre-Qualifying Favorites: As we know, qualifying order is extremely important in DraftKings scoring, but here are my favorites to win based solely on historical data, including factors mentioned in the last slide. These picks can be used for conventional fantasy NASCAR games where finishing position is all that matters.

#88 Dale Earnhardt Jr., Nationwide Chevrolet

#4 Kevin Harvick, Budweiser/Jimmy John’s Chevrolet

#18 Kyle Busch, M&M’s Crispy Chocolate Toyota

#48 Jimmie Johnson, Lowe’s Chevrolet

#1 Jamie McMurray, Cessna Chevrolet

#2 Brad Keselowski, Miller Lite Ford

I will release my final DraftKings-centric Picks on Saturday morning including the final starting order.

Next: General NASCAR Strategy for DraftKings Contests

Sep 11, 2015; Richmond, VA, USA; Sprint Cup Series driver Jimmie Johnson (48) looks on prior to practice for the Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond International Raceway. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-USA TODAY Sports

General DraftKings Strategy: The next thing to consider while filling out your teams is the DraftKings scoring system. DraftKings owners will draft a team of 6 drivers with a $50,000 Salary Cap. Scoring will be based on several factors including a driver’s Finishing Position, Place Differential, Fastest Laps, and Laps Led.

NEW NASCAR SCORING SYSTEM

More from DraftKings

The salaries used are set weekly for each contest before qualifying and practice and are based on the overall strength of each driver/team/car for that particular race. The calculations that DraftKings use to determine drivers’ salaries are based on a driver’s ability to score fantasy points and as such consider all the four aforementioned factors. Since NASCAR is a new Daily Fantasy game, DraftKings has made it easier for players to understand the scoring system by listing a driver’s Fantasy Points Per Race (FPPR) next to a driver’s salary that shows a driver’s performance to date (including 2015 races that did not have DK contests). The following are some of the factors that determine a driver’s salary and something that a fantasy player should look at:

  1. A Driver and/or Team’s current level of speed and performance this season.
  2. A Driver and/or Team’s history at that specific track and race.
  3. A Driver and/or Team’s history at similar tracks and races.

Next: Why Wait Until After Practice/Qualifying to Make Picks?

Sep 11, 2015; Richmond, VA, USA; Sprint Cup Series driver Kevin Harvick (4) during practice for the Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond International Raceway. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-USA TODAY Sports

Because the DraftKings salaries are set prior to qualifying and practice, there are many things that can change a driver’s relative fantasy value before the race starts. Some things to consider:

  1. Qualifying and practice speed are a good (but not the only) indicator of a driver’s projected performance and factor largely in a driver’s potential to maximize points in the Finish Position, Fastest Laps, and Laps Led categories.
  2. The DraftKings points system is unique and emphasizes both in-race performance as well as finishing position. So it is paramount to target at least some drivers that start further back in the field yet can compete as a top-performing car. This will get you points in the Place Differential category.

We will be back on Saturday morning with our FINAL Darlington DraftKings Fantasy Picks!

Need help with your daily or season-long fantasy NASCAR contests? Contact me on Twitter @Rich_Pelesky and I will give you the guidance you need to make the best fantasy decisions.

Next: 2015 Federated Auto Parts 400 Fantasy NASCAR Preview