Taurean Prince: The Big 12’s Most Intriguing NBA Prospect

In 2015, the Big 12 produced two first round NBA Draft picks. Both selections, Myles Turner (Texas) and Kelly Oubre (Kansas), are young prospects with the potential to grow into strong NBA players. The Big 12’s most highly touted prospects this season are also young guys with the potential to thrive in the NBA. The first, Cheick Diallo, is a native of Mali who moved to the United States in 2012 and has established himself as a top five player in the 2015 freshman class. The other, Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, from Ukraine, is an 18-year old who has already played one year of college basketball at Kansas where he showed an impressive basketball IQ despite not earning many minutes on the court.

As good as Diallo and Mykhailiuk may prove to be in the long run, the Big 12 will be shaped this season by its returning seniors. Only one of those players, Taurean Prince, is slated to be a first round pick in 2016 according to DraftExpress.

Prince is a difficult scouting project. As a junior, he came off the bench for Scott Drew’s team and played in just 63.5 percent of available minutes. Drew also committed the Bears to playing a 1-3-1 defense for most of the season, which produces limited film on Prince’s one-on-one defensive abilities.

Despite the lack of tape, Prince projects as a first round pick because of his size and statistical profile. At 6-7 with a 6-11 wingspan, Prince has the prototypical size of an NBA wing. He was Baylor’s leading scorer despite playing just 26.3 minutes per game last season. And advanced statistics swoon over him. Prince posted an 11.7 box plus/minus, which suggests he was worth nearly 12 more points per 100 possessions than an average player in college basketball.

The combination of his age, size and basketball ability make Taurean Prince the Big 12’s most intriguing 2016 NBA prospect. Prince is often identified as a potential “3-and-D” wing player in the NBA, so let’s move forward by examining his skills in that context.

As a junior, Prince knocked down 39.5 percent of his 152 3-point attempts. His 3-point percentage has improved every season at Baylor, but we only have 199 attempts to base our conclusions on. He has decent mechanics, but sometimes shoots the ball a little flat or opts to fade away from the basket when it’s not necessary. Prince is at his best when he is stationed on the 3-point line where he can be put into catch and shoot situations, like the one shown here:

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The biggest concern I have is Prince doesn’t project well as an NBA 3-point shooter. Using Andrew Johnson’s formulas, cited in this great Nylon Calculus post, I calculated Prince’s NBA numbers, and the results are a bit concerning. Because of his poor free throw shooting (67.9 percent for his career), Prince projects as only a 34.6 percent 3-point shooter. The optimist in me, though, thinks that number will be a bit higher given his improvement during his time in Waco.

In addition to being able to shoot the ball, a “3-and-D” player should also be able to attack opposing closeouts. Prince is not great with the ball, which limits his ability to perform this task well. On a few occasions, I saw Prince fail to take advantage of his mismatch because he simply isn’t skilled enough with the ball in his hands to do so. Here’s one such example from Baylor’s game against Oklahoma, where big man TaShawn Thomas picks up Prince on the perimeter:

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While Prince will need to improve in those situations, he does have the ability to attack in a straight line. Here’s a good example of Prince using a shot fake to attack the basket where he finishes with some nice agility:

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Prince is certainly not a polished offensive talent. Luckily, he’s added about 10-15 pounds this off-season. That should help him finish better in traffic when beating closeouts. There’s also potential for Prince to beat out his projected 3-point percentage given his improvement over time.

Defensively, Prince is a bit of a mystery because of Baylor’s zone scheme. There are not a lot of opportunities to see him in one-on-one situations with a defender, but his physical profile suggests he has the tools to become serviceable in this department. For example, Prince has the length to contest 3-point shots after fighting through screens, as you can see here:

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His length also contributes to strong rebounding numbers. As a junior, Prince was one of the top 20 defensive rebounders in the Big 12, grabbing 15.3 percent of available boards. He’s not particularly physical, but he is able to use his long arms to beat out opposing players:

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My concern for Prince defensively is that he’s not as quick as other wing defenders. He doesn’t move with the kind of fluidity that characterizes most good defensive players and he has a tendency to get lost in transition situations where he appears to be thinking about what he should do next. If Prince is able to internalize those movements, he should become a much better defender at the next level.

This review may be a bit overly critical of Prince, who still stands out as a potential first rounder and has a role to play in the NBA. But it also reflects that he has substantial improvements to make if he’s going to become a regular “3-and-D” rotation player in the league. Prince should be able to showcase some of those developments this season as he will presumably move into a more primary role with Baylor after the graduations of Kenny Chery and Royce O’Neale.

If he can maintain or improve his 3-point shooting percentage while becoming a better ballhandler, Prince should hear his name called in the first round in 2016.