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Sylvania 300 Fantasy NASCAR Analysis and Early Picks

By Rich Pelesky

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Fantasy NASCAR Analysis and Early Picks for the Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in Loudon, NH on Sunday, September 27th, 2015.

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WANT TO SKIP THE RESEARCH AND GET STRAIGHT TO THE PICKS: See my SYLVANIA 300 POST-QUALIFYING PICKS

Now, let’s look at the Field.

Next: Sylvania 300 Race Entrants w/ DK Salaries

Sylvania 300 Race Entrants

NOTE: Due to DraftKings changing the number to entrants from 5 to 6 but keeping the salary cap at $50,000, the salaries will be lower than in some previous contests.

SEE: Fantasy NASCAR Scoring Changes on DraftKings effective 8/2!

  1. #1 Jamie McMurray, FLIRR Chevrolet for $7,900
  2. #2 Brad Keselowski, Miller Lite Ford for $10,600
  3. #3 Austin Dillon,  Cheerios Chevrolet for $7,200
  4. #4 Kevin Harvick, Ditech Chevrolet For $11,000
  5. #5 Kasey Kahne, Farmer’s Insurance Chevrolet for $7,300
  6. #6 Trevor Bayne, AdvoCare Ford Fusion for $5,600
  7. #7 Alex Bowman, Nikko RC/Toy State Car Chevrolet for $5,200
  8. #9 Sam Hornish Jr., Shaws/Smithfield Ford for $5,800
  1. #10 Danica Patrick, GoDaddy Dental Chevrolet for $5,700
  2. #11 Denny Hamlin, FedEx Freight Toyota for $9,500
  3. #13 Casey Mears GEICO Chevrolet SS for $5,700
  4. #14 Tony Stewart, Code 3 Associates/Mobil 1 Chevrolet for $6,900
  5. #15 Clint Bowyer, 5-Hour Energy Toyota for $7,500
  6. #16 Greg Biffle, Kleen Performance Products Ford Fusion for $6,300
  7. #17 Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Ford EcoBoost Ford Fusion for $5,600
  8. #18 Kyle Busch, Pedigree Toyota for $10,800
  9. #19 Carl Edwards, Sports Clips Toyota for $9,300
  10. #20 Matt Kenseth, Dollar General Toyota for $10,000
  11. #22 Joey Logano, Shell Pennzoil Ford for $10,200
  12. #23 Jeb Burton, Bullhorn Toyota for $5,100
  13. #24 Jeff Gordon, Drive to End Hunger Chevrolet for $8,600
  14. #26 Josh Wise, Maxim Toyota for $5,100
  15. #27 Paul Menard, Sylvania /Menards Chevrolet for $6,500
  16. #31 Ryan Newman, Caterpillar Chevrolet for $7,400
  17. #32 Jeffrey Earnhart, Bangor Truck Equipment Ford for $5,300
  18. #33 B. J. McLeod, TBA Chevrolet for N/A
  19. #34 Brett Moffitt, Dockside Ford for $5,300
  20. #35 Cole Whitt, Taco Bell Ford for $5,300
  21. #38 David Gilliland, MDS Transportation Ford for $5,300
  22. #40 Landon Cassill, Interstate Moving Services Chevrolet for $5,400
  23. #41 Kurt Busch, Haas Automation Chevrolet for $10,700
  24. #42 Kyle Larson, Target Plaid Chevrolet for $8,200
  25. #43 Aric Almirola, Smithfield Ford for $6,600
  26. #46 Michael Annett, Switch Hitch Chevrolet for $5,000
  27. #47 A.J. Allendinger, Bush’s Chill Beans Chevrolet for $6,000
  28. #48 Jimmie Johnson, Lowe’s Pro Services Chevrolet for $9,600
  29. #51 Justin Allgaier, AccuDoc Chevrolet for $5,500
  30. #55 David Ragan, Aaron’s Dream Machine Toyota for $6,500
  31. #62 Timmy Hill, TBA Chevrolet for $5,000
  32. #78 Martin Truex Jr., Furniture Row/Visser Precision Chevrolet for $9,100
  33. #83 Matt DiBenedetto, Cosmo Toyota for $5,200
  34. #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr., Nationwide Chevrolet for $8,700
  35. #98 Ryan Preece, Premium Motorsports Ford for $5,000

Next: Sylvania 300 Fantasy Strategy

Sep 25, 2015; Loudon, NH, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Clint Bowyer (15) talks with crew members during practice for the Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Sylvania 300/New Hampshire Fantasy Strategy: Although my race picks will not be released until after the final practice session on Saturday, here is a sneak peek at some of the trends that will factor into my selections. This also gives fantasy players some foundations to base their own fantasy research on.

More from FanSided

1. This race is on 2-turn, 1.06 mile, flat, paved True Oval track (301 laps, 318.458 miles) at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in Loudon, NH.

2. Strongly consider drivers that have a good history on shorter tracks (less than 1.5 mile) as well as flat tracks. Richmond, Phoenix, and Martinsville have those things in common with Loudon.

3. NASCAR has two Cup races a year at NHMS. Take note of how drivers and teams did in the those races in the past, especially the one earlier this year.

4. The Pit area here is very cramped, with only about 10 spots that have fairly easy access; this makes qualifying order (with its pit choice) very important.

5. Leaders in average finish among active drivers (5+ races): Brad Keslowski (9.5), Denny Hamlin (10.2), Jimmy Johnson (10.3), Jeff Gordon (11.0), and Tony Stewart (12.2).

6. This smaller race track makes track position and the ability to carry speed through the large turns very important.

7. Recently, qualifying has been a good indicator of race speed. In the last 3 races, only one driver that led more than one lap in a race qualified outside the Top 12 (Allmendinger, 13 Laps, July ’15).

8. 23 of the 41 Cup races at New Hampshire have been won from a top-10 starting position.

9. Hendrick Motorsports leads the series in wins at New Hampshire with 9, but only has one Top 8 in the last 3 races here (Dale Earnhart Jr., July ’15).

10 Nine active drivers have multiple wins at NHMS: #41, #24, #48, #31, #14 have 3 wins a piece while #18, #15, #11, and #22 have 2 each.

Next: Preliminary Fantasy Picks prior to Qualifying

Sep 25, 2015; Loudon, NH, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Kevin Harvick (4) during practice for the Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

My Early, Pre-Qualifying Favorites: As we know, practice speed is extremely important in DraftKings handicapping, but here are my favorites based on historical data. These picks are also very good in conventional FANTASY NASCAR games where finishing position is the sole scoring criteria.

#4 Kevin Harvick, Ditech Chevrolet For $11,000

#2 Brad Keselowski, Miller Lite Ford for $10,600

#42 Kyle Larson, Target Plaid Chevrolet for $8,200

#15 Clint Bowyer, 5-Hour Energy Toyota for $7,500

#31 Ryan Newman, Caterpillar Chevrolet for $7,400

#16 Greg Biffle, Kleen Performance Products Ford Fusion for $6,300

I will release my final DraftKings Picks on Saturday after the final practice sessions.

Next: General NASCAR Strategy for DraftKings Contests

Sep 25, 2015; Loudon, NH, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Kyle Larson (42) during practice for the Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

General DraftKings Strategy: The next thing to consider while filling out your teams is the DraftKings scoring system. DraftKings owners will draft a team of 6 drivers with a $50,000 Salary Cap. Scoring will be based on several factors including a driver’s Finishing Position, Place Differential, Fastest Laps, and Laps Led.

NEW NASCAR SCORING SYSTEM

More from DraftKings

The salaries used are set weekly for each contest before qualifying and practice and are based on the overall strength of each driver/team/car for that particular race. The calculations that DraftKings use to determine drivers’ salaries are based on a driver’s ability to score fantasy points and as such consider all the four aforementioned factors.

Since NASCAR is a new Daily Fantasy game, DraftKings has made it easier for players to understand the scoring system by listing a driver’s Fantasy Points Per Race (FPPR) next to a driver’s salary that shows a driver’s performance to date (including 2015 races that did not have DK contests). The following are some of the factors that determine a driver’s salary and something that a fantasy player should look at:

  1. A Driver and/or Team’s current level of speed and performance this season.
  2. A Driver and/or Team’s history at that specific track and race.
  3. A Driver and/or Team’s history at similar tracks and races.

Next: Why Wait Until After Practice/Qualifying to Make Picks?

Sep 25, 2015; Loudon, NH, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Greg Biffle (16) during practice for the Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Because the DraftKings salaries are set prior to qualifying and practice, there are many things that can change a driver’s relative fantasy value before the race starts. Some things to consider:

  1. Qualifying and practice speed are a good (but not the only) indicator of a driver’s projected performance and factor largely in a driver’s potential to maximize points in the Finish Position, Fastest Laps, and Laps Led categories.
  2. The DraftKings points system is unique and emphasizes both in-race performance as well as finishing position. So it is paramount to target at least some drivers that start further back in the field yet can compete as a top-performing car. This will get you points in the Place Differential category.

We will be back on Saturday morning with our FINAL Loudon DraftKings Fantasy Picks!

Need help with your daily or season-long fantasy NASCAR contests?

Contact me on Twitter @Rich_Pelesky and I will give you the guidance you need to make the best fantasy decisions.

Next: Sylvania 300 FINAL Fantasy NASCAR Picks