The State of Manning: prognosis for Peyton’s 2015 season
By Ryan Tracy
Taking a look at how Peyton Manning’s 2015 season should play out.
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The rumors of his demise are greatly exaggerated. Peyton Manning’s game is not dead.
With age comes adjustment. In 2015, Manning has a lot of adjusting to to do. While the overreactions began after the Broncos opening week victory, the chatter was based on a sliver of justified concern.
Week two quieted the roar condemning Manning to has-been status, but it can still be heard. The question has now become “Which outing represents the true state of the vaunted Manning arm?” Looking at the film of all of Peyton Manning’s pass attempts of 2015, I was able to inspect his strength, mechanics and velocity. Several things stood out under scrutiny, but one more than any other.
Two factors will need to be managed in order for Manning to achieve his accustomed success
Looking at Manning’s motion and velocity, it does not appear that his performance is being affected by a medical condition. Manning has had a well-publicized surgical procedure on his neck that treated a herniated disc and pinched nerve.
While the initial condition will cause pain and weakness, once therapy is completed and an athlete returns to play, any weakness should be corrected unless there is a re-injury. To this point in the season, Manning doesn’t show any outward appearance of re-injury.
What he does show are the common symptoms of an aging athlete. There are two major aspects of the passing game that reveal where Manning is currently able to function.
Consistency
Going back to 2014, there were warning signs for Manning’s week-in, week-out consistency. Across the last six games the Broncos have played in 2014 and 2015 (including regular season and playoffs), Manning has thrown for a completion percentage below 64% in four contests. In 2014, during a Week 12 contest versus Kansas City, he produced a season-low 50% completion percentage.
The 2015 season has picked up right where 2014 left off. In two games, Manning has attempted 85 passes and had another seven dropbacks that resulted in sacks. Although he was able to throw three touchdowns in Week 2, there was a significant variation on his throws. The two examples below show an underthrow on a 13 yard pattern and a 35 yard pass that he overthrew.
These inconsistencies have shown through. The three touchdowns in Week 2 were deceiving in that they hid the fact that Manning’s completion percentage actually fell from week one. Manning has completed just 58.8% of his passes in 2015. If that continues, 2015 would reflect his worst accuracy since Manning’s rookie season where he completed 56.7% of his passes.
Strength
Much has been made about the remaining strength left in the 39-year-olds throwing arm. The film shows the reaction has been overblown. While there have certainly been a larger number of underthrown passes from Manning over the last 18 months, there has also been a stout volume of powerful throws and even overthrows, as we saw above.
The strength and velocity seems to be situational at this point in Manning’s career. With age, the nervous system response and muscle recruitment that are essential to throwing with power become more difficult to maximize. In short, it takes more effort to throw with power as a quarterback ages, making some appear to be heaving the ball downfield. Manning is not to that point yet. However, he is clearly more reliant on his lower body to drive throwing motion.
Here, the touchdown pass has a flat trajectory and was thrown with power and velocity. Manning is able to set his feet, which is optimal for him at this point in his career and gives him the best chance for success.
Below is a rare exception to this rule. This pass shows Manning not set and throwing from his back foot, falling backward. It results in a low power throw that is caught despite being low and a bit behind the receiver. This ball only travels 17 yards in the air and show the outside edge of Manning’s range using just his arm strength.
With these factors in mind, the prognosis for Manning’s 2015 season is precarious, sitting in the range of above average, but not elite. However, the outcome is dependent on factors other than just Manning’s arm.
Optimizing Manning
As the season wears on, two factors will need to be managed in order for Manning to achieve his accustomed success. They are protection and mechanics.
The patchwork offensive line in Denver is struggling. They have surrendered seven sacks in two games and allowed Manning to be hit an additional six times. In two games, that accounts for nearly 35% of all the sacks/hits given up a year ago. Every shot that Manning takes increases his chance of re-injury of the disc/nerve issue. As the number of hits climbs, the chance to attack with the pass falls.
In addition, that is an average of six less dropbacks per game where Manning can setup as he needs to. Unless the offensive line can shore up their protection, six dropbacks can account for a significant number of lost completions and points.
As we saw in the top play above, Manning is not performing well when he cannot plant his feet and throw from a stable base. The most intriguing development as the Broncos’ season progresses will be the evolution of the offense. Gary Kubiak’s offense wants the the quarterback under center and moving the pocket. However, being under center stresses Manning lack of mobility and limits his ability to set his feet. The shotgun gives manning the time to set his throwing platform, and also has the benefit of letting Manning see the defense better prior to the snap. Both of these factors make the shotgun optimal for Manning at this stage in his career.
A balance and understanding must be reached between Manning and Kubiak in order to settle this offense down and build it into a hybrid of their styles. Playing to his needs and strengths will be crucial for Peyton Manning to continue to be successful this season.
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