Scouting Report: Jakob Poeltl has all the makings of a lottery pick

Coming into last season, it was hard to find many draft analysts who knew Jakob Poeltl’s name. After a wildly successful freshman season, though, the Austrian big man returns as one of the top prospects in the 2016 NBA Draft.

15 years ago, a player like Poeltl probably wouldn’t have been thought of as highly as he is today. He’s not a dominant shot blocking center and isn’t much of a scorer on the offensive end, but his ability to fit in with a pick-and-roll heavy league on both ends of the court makes him an exciting prospect.

While Larry Krystkowiak’s pick-and-roll offense puts Poeltl’s full skill set on display, it is fair to wonder how the departure of Delon Wright will affect him this season. He will likely be asked to take on a larger creation role and won’t see as many easy looks around the rim, almost certainly knocking down last year’s outstanding 68.4 percent shooting.

Creating Offense

Poeltl is not someone you would consider a scoring big man, and his lack of creation starts with his jump shot. He was a 44 percent free throw shooter as a freshman and didn’t venture deeper than 15 feet on his midrange attemps. However, playing with Austria this summer, he flashed some semblance of an outside shot. Until there is a significantly larger sample and better shooting from the stripe, I’ll err heavily on the side of caution, but his reasonably fluid form gives him some hope of turning things around.

When Poeltl catches the ball in the midrange area he possesses some ability to make hard one dribble drives to the rack, but he generally lacks the type of handle or feel to create shots for himself. As a post player, he does show some promise. His skinny frame prevents him from consistently getting position and often causes him to get knocked off balance. When Poeltl is comfortable, though, he has the ability to knock down hooks and even flashed an up-and-under move. His biggest problem in the post is he looks down at the ground when he dribbles the ball, so once he begins his move he struggles to read the defense.

Poeltl’s passing is occasionally impressive when he has his head up and gets a chance to read the floor, yet his inability to put the ball on the floor while maintaining vision hurts him on the catch in pick-and-rolls. Again, his international play this summer showcased some passing on the move skill and he may be the type of player that can grow into some skills as he gets more comfortable with the athleticism of his opponents.

The good thing for Poeltl is that he doesn’t really need to develop these skills to be a useful NBA player. Becoming semi-competent from the mid-range areas/free throw line and being less of a black hole as a passer are important steps for him, but he doesn’t ever need to be able to create for himself to fit his role at the next level. Moreover, the fact that Poeltl has even hinted at these skills makes him an enticing project.

Complementary Offense

Poeltl thrives as a role player on the offensive end because of his ability to play in both pick-and-roll and transition. As a screen setter, he does a great job establishing a wide base and while his lack of strength hurts, he generally manages to be an effective screener for a college big guy. On the dive to the basket is where Poeltl really shines. He has unusual speed for a 7-footer and he does a great job of catching on the move and finishing off one or two feet around the hoop. He doesn’t quite have the length or athletic bounce to be a dangerous lob threat, but he does have enough athleticism to throw some surprisingly fierce dunks down while on the move.

When he catches the ball in the lane, Poeltl has both incredibly soft touch and a great feel for using pump fakes to create space. It’s funky to contrast how soft Poeltl’s touch is around the rim with his atrocious free throw shooting, but 68.4 percent shooting on 187 2-point field goals last year speaks for itself. His biggest concerns as a dive man are his aforementioned turnover issues, lack of vision and a tendency to get knocked off his course by small amounts of contact. NBA players will frequently “bump” the roll man on their way to the rim, making it crucial for Poeltl to add core strength to make the most of his impressive on the move coordination.

Obviously, Poeltl’s combination of speed and hands makes him a great target in transition. Slightly more above the rim ability would make him even more enticing, but just being a huge dude near the basket on the break can often be enough to help a team out.

Defense

Poeltl is a great fit for the modern NBA because of his ability to impact the pick-and-roll on both ends of the floor. His lateral mobility when meeting the ball handler on the perimeter is fantastic and he can smoothly slide with opposing guards in most situations. If guards do choose to attack him, he gets thrown off by Tony Parker style flip shots and can sometimes struggle when opponents jump into his body. Even so, he generally does a good job going vertical with his arms and contesting the shot. The speed with which he can recover to pick-and-pop bigs is also impressive, making him a rather complete defender in screen actions.

As a help defender, Poeltl is well beyond his years, though he still suffers from some of the mistakes that so many young bigs are plagued with. When it comes to contesting shots at the rim, Poeltl does a good job of using his length and has decent timing. However, he lacks the strength or vertical explosion to really change shots the way some bigs can. His 8.6 block percentage from last season is certainly a good mark for a big man, but isn’t the sign of an imposing interior force either.

Poeltl’s issues defending bigs in one-and-one situations is another area that comes down to his strength. He has the mobility to keep up with face up attacks, the length to contest shots and plays physically to prevent opponents from getting position on the block, but generally loses the battle when an opposing big goes into his body. At 240 pounds, you wouldn’t think strength should be such a huge problem for Poeltl but he seems to lack a degree of muscle. It’ll be important for him to convert muscle to fat to become the best NBA player possible.

2015-16 Outlook

There are a lot of things to watch for in Poeltl this upcoming year. Whether he flashes some of the creative passing and shooting he showed this summer, keeps up his high efficiency without Delon Wright around and adds some strength to his frame are all big questions. However, I am generally a Poeltl optimist and think he doesn’t necessarily need any one of those things to happen to justify his status as a late lottery/mid-first round pick.

Last year, Poeltl showed the ability to impact the game on both ends with his pick-and-roll play and, more important, he has the mobility to stay on the court against small ball type lineups. That versatility combined with his naturally imposing size is a great combination and is why I would’ve had him pegged as a lottery pick had he declared this past year.

If he shows a little more during his sophomore campaign, I fully expect to have Poeltl as a top-10 prospect come June.