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AAA 400 Fantasy NASCAR Analysis and Early Picks

By Rich Pelesky

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May 31, 2015; Dover, DE, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Jimmie Johnson (48) crosses the finish line to win the FedEx 400 benefiting Autism Speaks at Dover International Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O

Fantasy NASCAR Analysis and Early Picks for the AAA 400 at Dover International Speedway in Dover, DE on Sunday, October 4th, 2015.

Whether you are a fantasy racing player or just a NASCAR fan, let us be your one stop shop for all the information you need to prepare you for NASCAR races in the 2015 season. Go to our Fantasy NASCAR Hub at https://fansided.com/category/nascar-fantasy/ and bookmark it!

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MUST SEE: AAA 400 FINAL DraftKings Fantasy NASCAR Picks!

Now, let’s look at the Field.

Next: AAA 400 Race Entrants

Sep 30, 2015; Kannapolis, NC, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series team owner Gene Haas (left) driver Clint Bowyer (center) and Tony Stewart (right) pose for a picture after Tony Stewart announces his retirement at the end of the 2016 season during press conference at Stewart Haas Racing. Mandatory Credit: Sam Sharpe-USA TODAY Sports

AAA 400 Race Entrants

SEE: Fantasy NASCAR Scoring Changes on DraftKings effective 8/2!

  1. #1 Jamie McMurray, Nature Made Chevrolet
  2. #2 Brad Keselowski, Wurth Ford
  3. #3 Austin Dillon,  Dow Chevrolet
  4. #4 Kevin Harvick, Budweiser/Jmmy John’s Chevrolet
  5. #5 Kasey Kahne,  HendrickRideAlong Chevrolet
  6. #6 Trevor Bayne, AdvoCare Ford Fusion
  7. #7 Alex Bowman, Tommy Baldwin Racing Chevrolet
  8. #9 Sam Hornish Jr., SlimFast Ford
  1. #10 Danica Patrick, GoDaddy Dental Chevrolet
  2. #11 Denny Hamlin, FedEx Office Toyota
  3. #13 Casey Mears GEICO Chevrolet SS
  4. #14 Tony Stewart, Code 3 Associates/Mobil 1 Chevrolet
  5. #15 Clint Bowyer, 5-Hour Energy Toyota
  6. #16 Greg Biffle, Ortho Ford Fusion
  7. #17 Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Fastenal Ford Fusion
  8. #18 Kyle Busch, Interstate Batteries Toyota
  9. #19 Carl Edwards, Arris Toyota
  10. #20 Matt Kenseth, Dollar General Toyota
  11. #22 Joey Logano, Shell Pennzoil Ford
  12. #23 Jeb Burton, Dr. Peeper/Estes Toyota
  13. #24 Jeff Gordon, AAA Member Advantages Chevrolet
  14. #26 Josh Wise, Maxim Fantasy Toyota
  15. #27 Paul Menard, Knaus/Menards Chevrolet
  16. #30 Travis Kvapil, Curtis Key Plumbing
  17. #31 Ryan Newman, Quicken Loans Chevrolet
  18. #32 Josh Wise, Schwarze Sweepers Ford
  19. #33 Alex Kennedy, TBA Chevrolet
  20. #34 Brett Moffitt, CSX Play It Safe Ford
  21. #35 Cole Whitt, Rinnai Tankless Water Heaters Ford
  22. #38 David Gilliland, MDS Transportation Ford
  23. #40 Landon Cassill, CRC Brakleeh Chevrolet
  24. #41 Kurt Busch, Haas Automation Chevrolet
  25. #42 Kyle Larson, Target Plaid Chevrolet
  26. #43 Aric Almirola, Nathans Famous Ford
  27. #46 Michael Annett, Pilot Flying J Chevrolet
  28. #47 A.J. Allendinger, Hungry Jack Chevrolet
  29. #48 Jimmie Johnson, Lowe’s Chevrolet
  30. #51 Justin Allgaier, Fraternal Order of Eagles Chevrolet
  31. #55 David Ragan, Aaron’s Dream Machine Toyota
  32. #62 Timmy Hill, Premium Motorsports Chevrolet
  33. #78 Martin Truex Jr., Furniture Row/Visser Precision Chevrolet
  34. #83 Matt DiBenedetto, Cosmo Toyota
  35. #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr., Nationwide Plenti Chevrolet
  36. #98 Reed Sorenson, Premium Motorsports Ford

Next: AAA 400 Fantasy Strategy

Sep 27, 2015; Loudon, NH, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Martin Truex Jr. (78) during the Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

AAA 400/Dover Fantasy Strategy: Although my race picks will not be released until after the final practice sessions on Saturday, here is a sneak peek at some of the trends that will factor into my selections:

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This race is on a unique one mile track with a concrete surface where tire management is paramount.

NASCAR has two Cup races a year at Dover. Take note of how drivers and teams did in the those races in the past, especially the one earlier this year.

Also strongly consider drivers with a good history at Bristol, which is another concrete track.

Dover International Speedway is a rythym track and teams that can be fast on long runs will be most successful.

In both 2014 and 2015 Chevrolets have 3 cars in the Top 6 in qualifying.

Qualifying is not everything here –  2 Top 5 Drivers in the Spring race started 23rd or worse (#5 & #43) while race winner Jimmie Johnson started 14th.

Look for Drivers and Teams that have demonstrated consistent speed over all of the practice and qualifying runs.

However, race conditions are a lot different than practice and qualifying as rubber gets laid down on the track. As such, drivers and crews that can adjust to changing conditions will benefit.

Pit Position and Pit Crew performance will be especially important here.

10 Nine active drivers have multiple wins at Dover, led by Johnson (10), Gordon (5), Stewart and Newman with 3 each, and two a piece for Biffle, Kenseth and Kyle Busch.

Next: Preliminary Fantasy Picks prior to Qualifying

Sep 25, 2015; Loudon, NH, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Kevin Harvick (4) during practice for the Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

My Early, Pre-Qualifying Favorites: As we know, practice speed is extremely important in DraftKings handicapping, but here are my favorites based on historical data. These picks are also very good in conventional FANTASY NASCAR games where finishing position is the sole scoring criteria.

#4 Kevin Harvick, Budweiser/Jmmy John’s Chevrolet

#78 Martin Truex Jr., Furniture Row/Visser Precision Chevrolet

#48 Jimmie Johnson, Lowe’s Chevrolet

#15 Clint Bowyer, 5-Hour Energy Toyota

#31 Ryan Newman, Quicken Loans Chevrolet

#2 Brad Keselowski, Wurth Ford

I will release my final DraftKings Picks on Saturday after the final practice sessions.

Next: General NASCAR Strategy for DraftKings Contests

Sep 26, 2015; Loudon, NH, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Ryan Newman (31) during practice for the Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

General DraftKings Strategy: The next thing to consider while filling out your teams is the DraftKings scoring system. DraftKings owners will draft a team of 6 drivers with a $50,000 Salary Cap. Scoring will be based on several factors including a driver’s Finishing Position, Place Differential, Fastest Laps, and Laps Led.

NEW NASCAR SCORING SYSTEM

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The salaries used are set weekly for each contest before qualifying and practice and are based on the overall strength of each driver/team/car for that particular race. The calculations that DraftKings use to determine drivers’ salaries are based on a driver’s ability to score fantasy points and as such consider all the four aforementioned factors.

Since NASCAR is a new Daily Fantasy game, DraftKings has made it easier for players to understand the scoring system by listing a driver’s Fantasy Points Per Race (FPPR) next to a driver’s salary that shows a driver’s performance to date (including 2015 races that did not have DK contests). The following are some of the factors that determine a driver’s salary and something that a fantasy player should look at:

  1. A Driver and/or Team’s current level of speed and performance this season.
  2. A Driver and/or Team’s history at that specific track and race.
  3. A Driver and/or Team’s history at similar tracks and races.

Next: Why Wait Until After Practice/Qualifying to Make Picks?

May 31, 2015; Dover, DE, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Brad Keselowski (2) leads driver Joey Logano (22) and driver Ryan Newman (31) and driver Carl Edwards (19) during the FedEx 400 benefiting Autism Speaks at Dover International Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O

Because the DraftKings salaries are set prior to qualifying and practice, there are many things that can change a driver’s relative fantasy value before the race starts. Some things to consider:

  1. Qualifying and practice speed are a good (but not the only) indicator of a driver’s projected performance and factor largely in a driver’s potential to maximize points in the Finish Position, Fastest Laps, and Laps Led categories.
  2. The DraftKings points system is unique and emphasizes both in-race performance as well as finishing position. So it is paramount to target at least some drivers that start further back in the field yet can compete as a top-performing car. This will get you points in the Place Differential category.

We will be back on late Saturday evening with our FINAL Dover DraftKings Fantasy Picks!

Need help with your daily or season-long fantasy NASCAR contests?

Contact me on Twitter @Rich_Pelesky and I will give you the guidance you need to make the best fantasy decisions.

Next: AAA 400 at Dover Fantasy NASCAR Preview