Hardwood Paroxysm Presents: Bold predictions for the 2015-16 NBA season

The NBA is a crazy place where the unpredictable tends to happen. The Hawks winning 60 games? Nobody saw that coming last season. What about Stephen Curry taking home MVP honors? The odds of him winning in October were a whopping 28/1. With that in mind, we at Hardwood Paroxysm aim to be ahead of the curve when it comes to predicting the unpredictable. So, from the Knicks making the playoffs to Kyle Lowry winning a scoring title, here are our bold predictions for the upcoming NBA season.

The New York Knicks will make the playoffs

By Bryan Toporek (@btoporek) — Hardwood Paroxysm

Fresh off a 17-win season, it’s difficult to imagine the New York Knicks suddenly vaulting their way back into the playoffs. Then again … do you remember who they were trotting out as their starting five at the end of last season? If you answered Shane Larkin/Alexey Shved, Langston Galloway, Lance Thomas, Andrea Bargnani and Lou Amundson, congratulations! Go drown your sorrows in a bottle of Everclear immediately.

New York may have failed to land a big fish like DeAndre Jordan or LaMarcus Aldridge in free agency, but the team still added a considerable amount of legitimate NBA talent. Robin Lopez and Arron Afflalo are exponential upgrades over virtually anyone the Knicks had last year, while Derrick Williams, Kevin Seraphin and Kyle O’Quinn are all still young enough to have untapped upside. Throw in New York’s two first-round draft picks, Kristaps Porzingis and Jerian Grant, and the roster looks significantly upgraded top to bottom.

Is that enough to move the Knicks into playoff contention? That’s where things get shaky. Heading into the season, Cleveland, Atlanta, Chicago, Washington, Toronto, Miami and Milwaukee all appear to be veritable playoff locks, with the likes of Indiana, Boston and Detroit left to scrap for the final spot in the East bracket. Depending on how you feel about the prospects of Brooklyn and Orlando this year, that puts New York no better than 11th in the conference, theoretically.

Without fail, though, injuries will shake up the playoff picture. Just look at how quickly Charlotte plunged from “plucky playoff contender” to “OH DEAR GOD WHY” now that Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is likely to miss the season with a shoulder injury. The Heat, in particular, loom large as an injury risk — who’s betting on Dwyane Wade to play more than 65 games? — but an extended absence for John Wall or Kyle Lowry could crush Washington or Toronto, respectively, as well.

In Year 2 of the Phil Jackson-Derek Fisher era, the Knicks are poised to take a major step forward in their rebuild thanks to their offseason infusion of talent. Powered by a bounce-back season from Carmelo Anthony, they’ll more than double their 2014-15 win total and sneak into the playoffs as the No. 8 seed, where Cleveland will promptly eviscerate them in five games.

Rudy Gobert will have 400 blocks

By Dan Lewis (@minutemandan) — Hardwood Paroxysm

Anthony Davis lead the NBA last season in blocks (200 total), putting up those numbers in 68 games. Second in the league was a player that with just 37 starts to his name — the second-year center for the Utah Jazz, Rudy Gobert.

Gobert moved into the starting lineup after Enes Kanter was traded, and the Utah Jazz’s defense went from Michael Cera to Dwayne Johnson. No longer shackled to the bench, Gobert turned into a rim-protecting genie, teleporting around the paint to magically turn away shot attempts. He averaged 3.2 blocks per 36 minutes, while helping his team have one of the best defenses in the league.

In Year 2 of the Rudy Gobert domination, it’s time for the 23-year-old center to start blocking shots like a true Utah Jazz legend. Mark Eaton had 456 blocks in 1984, using his prodigious size to have one of the best defensive seasons of all time. All Gobert would have to do to hit 400 blocks is average about 5 blocks per game in about 80 games

It’s not that crazy to think that Gobert won’t have plenty of opportunities. Dante Exum tore his ACL this summer, leaving Rodney Hood as the only defender that might end up being a difference maker on the perimeter. The Jazz have Trey Burke and a bunch of nobodies at point guard, a group with enough defensive potential to bring back memories of Jamaal Tinsley and Mo Williams. With those defensive sieves funneling opponents to the rim for layups, Gobert should be able to average 5 blocks a game no problem.

With Gobert blocking 5 shots a game on a regular basis, he’ll hit that 400 mark and become one of the great centers in the history of the league.   

The Houston Rockets will win the West

By Kyle Neubeck (@KyleNeubeck) — Upside & Motor

I don’t think the Houston Rockets are being taken seriously enough. Their reputation relative to their talent has taken a hit for a number of reasons, and none of them feel all that compelling.

Take, for instance, the way they reached the Conference Finals last season; while they certainly “earned” their spot alongside the Golden State Warriors, they’re viewed more as the beneficiaries of a Los Angeles Clippers collapse in the WCSF. This operates under the same faulty logic that naysayers have used to downplay the Warriors title run, dismissing achievements due to circumstance.

The Rockets are similarly hurt by national opinion on their two alpha dogs. Productive and talented as James Harden is, some will never get past his flopping tactics and whimsical defensive effort, labeling him a player who is built only for regular season success. His partner, Dwight Howard, perhaps has it worse. The deafening failure of his Lakers tenure and the melodrama surrounding him the last two seasons makes him an easy target for criticism.

Forget all that. When the Rockets are healthy, they’re in possession of two of the league’s most valuable players. Offseason reinforcements and a complimentary cast will push them from the fringes of contention to the emergent force of the Western Conference.

Ty Lawson’s arrival in Houston comes with no guarantees, but he should provide a boost of creativity for a team that desperately needs it. While Harden is capable of buoying an offense on his own, shouldering all the playmaking is not feasible when the playoffs roll around. Lawson will take some of Harden’s burden, allowing the MVP runner-up to function as both a playmaker and one of the league’s best spot-up threats. Harden may see counting stats take a small dip, but the team will be better off for it.

Even with injury woes and baggage piling up, Howard is still one of the most impactful players in the league. His presence on the backline — even in a diminished state — forces opponents to adjust their attack plans. He isn’t the jumping jack that won dunk contests and put up transcendent defensive seasons five or six years ago, but the mere sight of Howard skulking in the paint can scare away would-be drivers.

Critics will claim that the Rockets are a Harden injury away from irrelevance, but that’s not unique to any Western contender. Even with another one of the league’s 10 best players still on the team, the Thunder missed out on the playoffs last season sans Kevin Durant. Stephen Curry’s papier-mâché ankles don’t appear to be a concern any longer, but would you pick the Dubs to repeat if issues flare up again?

The general strength of the Western Conference is a case both for and against the Rockets as potential West champs. Seeding is critical with how deep strength runs in the conference, and could be the difference between emerging from the pack or succumbing in the first round — just ask last year’s Spurs. But every serious contender faces hurdles as they gear up for the playoff meat grinder. Durant must return to form and remain injury-free, the Spurs continue to fight the approach of Father Time and Golden State will play their first full season as the team marked on every opponent’s calendar.

Emerging from the league’s superior conference takes talent, guile and luck. The Rockets have skilled hands on deck and displayed iron fortitude in making last year’s Conference Finals. Lady Luck needs to smile wider, but Houston is a credible threat to the throne.

Jahlil Okafor will run away with Rookie of the Year

By Trevor Magnotti (@IllegalScreens) — Upside & Motor

There are several rookies who could easily make a strong case for Rookie of the Year, if all goes correctly. Karl-Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell will of course be in the mix as the top two picks. Emmanuel Mudiay could blossom as a starter for what might actually be a pretty competent Nuggets team. Mario Hezonja has many intrigued by his brashness and overall ability. Justise Winslow and Stanley Johnson will get plenty of chances to make statements. And Kristaps Porzingis exists.

All of those players could be dwarfed, though, by Jahlil Okafor’s presence in Philadelphia. The fit of Okafor’s strengths with the 76ers offense is a recipe for success when it comes to Rookie of the Year. Okafor steps in from Day 1 as the Sixers’ best shot creator, and given that this award often becomes a subcategory of the scoring title, that gives him a huge advantage. He has a leg up on the rest of this rookie class in terms of creating baskets with his footwork, touch and strength.

And the 76ers offense will work to allow those talents to be readily on display, too. They lack consistent shot creators from the perimeter, but have a few nice spot-up shooters like Robert Covington and Hollis Thompson who can help spread the floor for Okafor. They also lack a proven point guard, which will allow Okafor to make better use of his passing ability out of the post, as well.

Making things even stronger in his favor? Okafor may be bad defensively, but most rookies are. Even guys like Towns or Myles Turner will be iffy on the defensive end out of the gate, and Okafor will make up for that by being a very strong offensive player. He’ll also be aided by having Nerlens Noel next to him to cover for mistakes and help the Sixers’ defense still be strong with Okafor on the floor, minimizing the negative effect he may bring on that end.

He may not be the best rookie in this class in five years. He may not even be top three. But when it comes to this season? Okafor has the best set-up to blow everyone out of the water for Rookie of the Year.

EVERYONE IS GOING TO HAVE A GOOD TIME

By Corbin Smith (@corbinasmith) — BISCASTBALL

Basketball is a fun game enjoyed by most. It’s a good source of exercise and teamwork. Players and fans enjoy watching basketball players run plays and improvise on the court. Most of the world’s best basketball players (probably 98 percent) play in the NBA. In recent years, teams have been shooting more 3-pointers, which is a lot of fun. Some people think too many 3-pointers, but I don’t agree, and I think the NBA will still be a good time even if people shoot too many 3-pointers. I like watching athletics and I especially like NBA athletics, because they take place in a structural content that has an internal logic that I can impose and draw values into and from.

Also, Satan himself is going to crawl out of a volcano and gnaw off Mike Dunleavy’s leg.

The Sacramento Kings will finish ahead of the Dallas Mavericks in the West

By Donnie Kolakowski (@donniebuckets) — Friendly Bounce

Sacramento was laughed at all offseason for the weird decisions their front office made, and rightfully so. The organization is in chaos, and everybody loves making fun of what a circus the team is on a daily basis.

Dallas has had lots of roster turnover, but has the stability of Mark Cuban, Rick Carlisle and Dirk Nowitzki. The team seemed poised to nab DeAndre Jordan and enter back into the contender conversation.

All of that fell through, though, and now the team is painfully thin without a real talent at center. With injury concerns at every spot, Dallas is dangerously close to relying on Samuel Dalembert and JaVale McGee. Heck, the team already IS banking on Deron Williams and Charlie Villanueva to be key contributors. Even if Nowitzki doesn’t decline anymore (which seems unlikely), this team is demonstrably worse without Tyson Chandler.

The Kings made some awful long-term moves, but the team should be better this season. Sacramento still has the unstoppable force known as DeMarcus Cousins, and bolstered its depth in the frontcourt. Marco Belinelli is at least a competent wing to along with Ben McLemore and Rudy Gay. And don’t forget how well Sacramento was playing before Cousins came down with viral meningitis last season.

Vegas may like Dallas for about eight more wins than Sacramento, but the Kings will finish with the better record. This will cause many fans in Sacramento to rejoice, until they realize it means the team has to deliver its first round pick to the Bulls for the J.J. Hickson trade that happened in 2011.

Oh, well.

The Philadelphia 76ers will win more than their Vegas over/under total

By Austin Peters (@apete1993) — Upside and Motor

This may seem outrageous given that Philly has been a dumpster fire for the past three seasons and will bring back just about every not-awful NBA player from last year’s 18-win squad. It might be for that reason, however, that the 76ers improve.

Continuity is something that can’t be quantified but it goes a long way in the league. Guys get familiar playing with each other and playing within a certain system, improving execution across the board. No roster in the league has had as much turnover as Philly over the past few seasons, and while this summer really hasn’t changed, they still kept guys like Robert Covington and Nerlens Noel, two of the main contributors on the squad.

The roster fielded upgrades at just about every position, too. Sam Hinkie talked about the possibility of starting both Noel and rookie Jahlil Okafor, neither of whom can shoot which could cramp spacing. It may work, however, with Covington being a solid shooter and the potential of players like Nik Stauskas, Isaiah Canaan and Scottie Wilbekin to step up to the plate. Okafor is the early season favorite for Rookie of the Year, and adding that type of talent to the roster will provide a significant boost overall.

Their point guard situation will be a lot better with Canaan entering his second year in a Sixers uniform, as well as the additions of Kendall Marshall, Wilbekin and Pierre Jackson. None of them project to be starters in the league (unlike former Sixer point guard Michael Carter-Williams), but all add different dimensions than the team had last year.

The likes of Jakarr Sampson, Furkan Aldemir and Jerami Grant played a ton of minutes last season and will have another summer and training camp under their belt. Of course, there is the buy low, high upside prospects like Christian Wood, JP Tokoto and Richaun Holmes, who will get plenty of opportunities to showcase their talents. Throw in someone like Nik Stauskas, a player drafted No. 8 in 2014 but landed in a terrible situation in Sacramento, and Philly’s parts are starting to semble something close to a real team.

While they still have the worst talent on the aggregate, Philadelphia’s team construction continues to become more and more fascinating and they should be more tolerable to watch this season. Either way, basketball needs to start soon because I’ve talked myself into Philly being an actual NBA team this season.

Kyle Lowry will win the scoring title

By Kaveh Jam (@KavehsRoom) — Hardwood Paroxysm

Kyle Lowry is on a rampage. Spare me with the it’s just preseason speech, I’m fully aware finding truth in these games is akin to eating up the rhetorical verbiage spewing from presidential debates. By all measures dream-promising season is in full swing — and that’s okay because there are still notes to take.  

In Lowry, though, we have seen tangible results already. He was always one of the better point guards in the league, always blessed with a quick first step, a reliable jumper and supreme penetration and footwork. Well, in case you’re sleeping your way until the regular season, stop hitting snooze and watch every minute of Lowry. Because this new slithering lean version of Lowry 2.0 is somehow improved — and the Raptors will be much better for it.

After showing up to camp in a new physical body, he’s unequivocally been the MVP of the preseason, if one existed. After hanging 40 points on the Minnesota Timberwolves, it’s pretty clear he’s out to eat opposing defenses. I love watching Lowry because he’s impossible to stop. He’s that annoying motorcycle that whisks through 5 pm rush hour traffic while you sit barricaded and motionless in a boiling car. That hopeless feeling of being stripped of all capabilities at that very moment — that’s Kyle Lowry when you’re on defense. He thrives off pick-and-rolls because his muscle memory lets him split screens and doubles in his sleep.

I’ve kept a close eye on Lowry for a while now, mainly because he’s small, and I enjoy the complex for which most little guys play with. During the second half of last season, his body broke down on him thanks partly to Dwane Casey misuse and partly the grind of a long season. He was a complete non-factor during the sweep to the Wizards as his shot abandoned him. You can see how it affected his offseason workout regimen. It’s admirable when your best player takes matters into his own hands after recognizing an area of improvement could be enormously beneficial.

If the 30.3 points per game and 68.3 percent shooting from the field so far in the preseason are even a slight indication of a renewed, refreshed and reborn Lowry, then a point guard can win the scoring title this season. Take notes.

The Miami Heat will win the Eastern Conference

By Zach Oliver (@ZachOliverNBA) — Friendly Bounce

With LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers stealing headlines once again, the Miami Heat are going under the radar in the Eastern Conference. While there are still concerns, mainly regarding injuries, I think the Heat will triumph and win the Eastern Conference after falling just short of the playoffs last season.

After a tumultuous year filled with injuries and the departure of the aforementioned James, the Heat are in a position to make a run yet again. With the addition of Justice Winslow in the draft, along with Amar’e Stoudemire and Gerald Green in free agency and the returns of both Chris Bosh and Josh McRoberts from injury, the Heat have their best depth in a long time.

While there are still injury concerns, mainly with Dwyane Wade who hasn’t played more than 70 games since the 2010-11 season, their additions on the wing should help them ease the loss of him for the games he will inevitably miss. Add in a full training camp with Goran Dragic at the point, and the Heat, at least on paper, have one of the most talented teams in the conference.

Looking at the East, the obvious favorites for most are the Cavaliers, but I’d argue they have as many issues as anyone in the conference. With Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving still recovering from their respective injuries, LeBron is going to be asked to do a lot, and while we know he can handle the load, it could burn him out as the season wears on. Also, the contract dispute with Tristan Thompson, the team’s most important bench piece, doesn’t look to be ending anytime soon, which could doom them should Love miss any regular season time.

Outside of the Cavaliers, Chicago still has a lot of questions, mainly how will they respond to new head coach Fred Hoiberg, along with the ever present question about Derrick Rose’s health. Washington, who are another potential sleeper, might be lacking that one piece — a glue guy to really take them over the edge. Outside of those two, Atlanta will undoubtedly take a step back from their 60-win season last year, and the likes of Milwaukee and Toronto seem to be a step below the previously mentioned five teams.

I think, as a whole, the East is going to be better this season, but, when all’s said and done and they’re handing out the trophy in the Eastern Conference Finals, the Heat will be walking into the finals with a date against a very formidable Western Conference opponent. Oh, and Erik Spoelstra is going to take home another Coach of the Year award for his outstanding job at the helm.