Hello and welcome to our NBA win total over/under picks. All 10 of us here at Friendly Bounce made our picks, which include three “locks” each. Below you’ll find each person’s pick for each team, along with a short paragraph for any locks. You’ll also see an infographic with each team’s win projection, how many of us picked the over, how many of us picked the under, and a small lock(s) if anyone picked that team for one of their “locks”. Here’s the Western Conference. Let’s get into it.
Dallas Mavericks
Jack (@jackhaveitall): Under
Taylor (@TaylorBojangles): Under
Wes G (@wcgoldberg): Under (Lock)
The Mavericks need too many things to go right–Wesley Matthews returning to form, Chandler Parsons staying healthy, JaVale McGee–to win more than 38.5 games. Dirk Nowitzki can’t carry this team by himself.
Brian (@bbeebe): Under
Zach (@ZachOliverNBA): Under
Ryne (@ryneprinz): Under (Lock)
This saddens me. Dirk is only getting older and cannot shoulder the load on offense or play defense anymore. Deron Williams, Wes Matthews, and Chandler Parsons are all either prone to or have suffered major injuries in the past. Zaza Pachulia is not a terrible center, but they surely lack depth at that position and the other four, for that matter. At least they have JaVale McGee, I guess.
Donnie (@donniebuckets): Under (Lock)
Dallas might be a disaster this year. The team lost its key defensive piece in Tyson Chandler and replaced him with nothing impressive. Wes Matthews is expected to be one of the stars, but it will take him a long time to round back into form. Dallas has an injury concern at every single starting spot, and doesn’t have the depth to withstand major injuries. If Dirk starts to get old this year, it could get ugly in a hurry for the Mavericks.
Wesley S (@wesley_share): Under (Lock)
A top-7 protected first-rounder owed to Boston could determine what route the team takes as the season runs its course. Devin Harris and J.J. Barea are the only two point guards behind Deron Williams, and even more horrifyingly, Deron Williams is the sole point guard ahead of those two. Sammy Dalembert, Zaza Pachulia and JaVale McGee are the last line of defense, too. This thing is more than likely going to be a train wreck this year.
Matt (@Matt_Cianfrone): Under (Lock)
This was the one that I felt most confident about. Even if the Mavs were healthy I was pretty down on their talent. Deron Williams hasn’t been very good in years. Dirk Nowitzki is old. Chandler Parsons was kind of average last year and Zaza Pachulia is fun but not a great starting center in the West. Dallas also plays in the toughest division in basketball and isn’t even close to healthy. I sadly think they are closer to the top 5 draft pick fight than playoff contention.
Chris (@ChrisBarnewall): Under (Lock)
The Dallas Mavericks have one of the most horrendous benches in the entire NBA, and it only gets worse when you consider how old or injured some of their key pieces are. Even DeAndre Jordan coming back wouldn’t save this team at this point. This is the easiest lock out there.
Denver Nuggets
Jack: Over (Lock)
Danilo Gallinari is healthy, and has looked fantastic in every setting we’ve seen him in since last spring. I’m not predicting a playoff appearance or anything crazy like that, but they have enough talent around Gallo to win 27 games. I mean, you don’t even have to be that good to win 27 games.
Taylor: Over (Lock)
This team mustered 30 wins last season despite being a tire fire for the majority of it. Full season of Gallo = easily over 26.5.
Wes G: Over
Brian: Over
Zach: Over
Ryne: Over
Donnie: Over
Wesley S: Over
Matt: Over (Lock)
The coaching upgrade is the biggest change here, but health matters too. Wilson Chandler, Kenneth Faried and Danilo Gallinari are really good players and it wasn’t long ago they were the core of a playoff team. Considering Denver should win eight or so games a year just based off of catching teams on the second night of a back-to-back in Denver, 27 wins seems really easy to see.
Chris: Over
Golden State Warriors
Jack: Over (Lock)
They won 67 games last year and are pretty much running it back with the same roster. Even if you assume some regression happens (and it’s perfectly reasonable to say there won’t be any considering the talent they have), they’re not going to be 7 games worse than last year.
Taylor: Under
Wes G: Under
Brian: Under
Zach: Over
Ryne: Over
Donnie: Over
Wesley S: Over
Matt: Over
Chris: Over
Houston Rockets
Jack: Over
Taylor: Over
Wes G: Over
Brian: Over
Zach: Over
Ryne: Over (Lock)
This team will be fantastic again this year. Dwight missed half of the regular season last year due to injury. Assuming he’s healthy, he provides a defensive anchor and an awesome big for the pick-and-roll. James Harden won’t have to handle the load on offense, since they traded for point guard Ty Lawson over the offseason. Also, the battered Mavericks are in their conference, so they should sweep that season series once again.
Donnie: Over
Wesley S: Over (Mortal Lock)
They’ve found a legitimate, top-15 point guard to ease some of the distressing load off of James Harden’s shoulders, Clint Capela looks like he’s really coming into his own, and when all’s said and done, they may be 10, 12 bodies deep. The Rockets won 56 games last season; unless the Bubonic Plague comes to Houston, the over on 54.5 is a mortal lock.
Matt: Over
Chris: Over
Los Angeles Clippers
Jack: Under
Taylor: Over
Wes G: Over
Brian: Under
Zach: Over
Ryne: Over
Donnie: Over
Wesley S: Under
Matt: Under
Chris: Over
Los Angeles Lakers
Jack: Under
Taylor: Under
Wes G: Under
Brian: Under
Zach: Over
Ryne: Under
Donnie: Under
Wesley S: Under (Lock)
Kobe, Swaggy, Lou Will, Metta World Peace and Robert Upshaw potentially all in one locker room? And it’s controlled by Byron Scott? This is the sneakiest tank job of all-time. With a top-3 protected first-round pick owed to Philly, losses are more than ideal (and frankly imminent) for LA.
Matt: Under
Chris: Under
Memphis Grizzlies
Jack: Over
Taylor: Over
Wes G: Under
Brian: Under
Zach: Over
Ryne: Over
Donnie: Over
Wesley S: Over
Matt: Over
Chris: Over (Lock)
The Grizzlies continue to have the “maybe this is the year they step back” card played against them, but there is just no way they don’t win 50 games again. This same roster was the second best in the NBA last year for the majority of the season until a really bad April knocked them way down in the playoff standings. It’s the same roster again, and sure they’re older, but that hasn’t stopped them before.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Jack: Over
Taylor: Under
Wes G: Over
Brian: Over
Zach: Under
Ryne: Under
Donnie: Under
Wesley S: Under
Matt: Matt
Chris: Under
New Orleans Pelicans
Jack: Over
Taylor: Over
Wes G: Over
Brian: Over
Zach: Under
Ryne: Under
Donnie: Over
Wesley S: Over
Matt: Over
Chris: Under
Oklahoma City Thunder
Jack: Under
Taylor: Under
Wes G: Over (Lock)
The last time Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook were healthy for the season, the Thunder won 60 games. They are healthy, they are re-energized under Billy Donovan, and they have more depth than ever. This team will win more than 57.5 games, and finish first or second in the Western Conference.
Brian: Over
Zach: Under
Ryne: Over
Donnie: Over
Wesley S: Under
Matt: Over
Chris: Under
Phoenix Suns
Jack: Over
Taylor: Over
Wes G: Over
Brian: Over
Zach: Over
Ryne: Over
Donnie: Over
Wesley S: Over
Matt: Over
Chris: Over
Portland Trail Blazers
Jack: Under
Taylor: Under
Wes G: Over
Brian: Over
Zach: Under (Lock)
Bless the Blazers hearts. They were a fun team, but lost everyone, sans Damian Lillard, and it’s going to be a real struggle for them this season. Yes, they have Lillard and a few other intriguing young pieces, but the Western Conference is such a gauntlet night-in and night-out that it’s going to be tough for Lillard to just carry them in every contest. They have the potential to be a lot of fun with the athletes that they have, but the 2015-16 season is going to be a big struggle for the guys out in Rip City.
Ryne: Under
Donnie: Under
Wesley S: Over
Matt: Under
Chris: Under
Sacramento Kings
Jack: Over (Lock)
I’m all in on this basketball experiment. It seems they finally decided on the correct course of action, which is to keep Boogie Cousins around, and obviously I’m in on Boogie. I’m in on Rajon Rondo turning things around. I’m in on Rudy Gay and Kosta Koufos. I’m in on them winning more than 30 games.
Taylor: Over
Wes G: Over
Brian: Over
Zach: Over
Ryne: Over
Donnie: Over
Wesley S: Under
Matt: Over
Chris: Over
San Antonio Spurs
Jack: Under
Taylor: Under
Wes G: Under
Brian: Under
Zach: Under
Ryne: Under
Donnie: Over
Wesley S: Under
Matt: Under
Chris: Under
Utah Jazz
Jack: Over
Taylor: Over (Lock)
This was the best defensive team in the league a year ago after Enes Kanter was jettisoned into the sun, and I’m not the only one expecting them to nab the 8 spot in the West. Around 45 wins is what I’d predict.
Wes G: Over
Brian: Under (Lock)
And here is where that contrarian angle comes in. Has anyone actually LOOKED at Utah’s starting backcourt/depth chart? HERE, PLEASE LOOK AT THIS. Trey Burke, Bryce Cotton and Raul Neto are the PG combo to get a team to 41 wins in the Western Conference? I don’t think so, and I’ve got a whole lot of THESE to put on it.
Zach: Over
Ryne: Over
Donnie: Over (Lock)
Utah was one of the best teams in the league post-All Star Break last season, and usually that number is just noise. Both pre-and post-ASB carry the same weight, and a lot of times teams that finish strong are thought to be turning a corner and fall flat the following season.
Utah is different. It wasn’t a coincidence the team played better; it was a shift from the human turnstile known as Enes Kanter starting to the The Stifle Tower, Rudy Gobert. Utah will be one of the hardest teams to score on this year, and gets back Alec Burks from injury. Factor in improvement for the young roster and another year under Quin Snyder, and the Jazz should clear the .500 mark easily.
Wesley S: Over
Matt: Over
Chris: Under