Happy Sunday! Week 5 was (much) kinder in this space, as our picks made everybody some additional jelly beans while bringing our collective record to a very respectable mark for the season. Still, we are trying to do yeoman’s work in bringing you some “winners” (copyright, Scott Van Pelt) this week, and that is always the goal.
If you are just joining us, we consistently “fade the public” in an effort to capitalize on the casual fan’s general ignorance. If you saw the signs in taking the New Orleans Saints as a home underdog on Thursday night (90% of the action on Atlanta), then you probably see the light with what we’re doing here. At any rate, let’s take a look at where we stand to this point on the calendar.
- Last week: 4-1
- Season: 14-11
Let’s get it going with this week’s picks.
Cleveland Browns (+4.5) over Denver Broncos
In the interest of full disclosure, this is a system play. There is almost nothing appealing to me about taking the Browns against this Denver defense, but everyone is on the Broncos as a road favorite (91% of the action according to Vegas Insider) and that is a giant red flag for me.
Cleveland is playing quality football, and while I would never pick them outright in this spot, taking more than a field goal is usually the right side unless a team is wretched at home. I don’t think the Browns qualify, and with Peyton Manning having real trouble producing consistency in the passing game, give me the candy.
Next: Chiefs-Vikings and Panthers-Seahawks