Scouting Report: Kris Dunn won’t regret passing on the 2015 NBA Draft

Every year it seems like college basketball is blessed with a potential lottery pick returning to school for one more season. This time around that returnee is Providence’s Kris Dunn.

Dunn posted outstanding numbers for the Friars during his sophomore campaign, averaging 15.6 points, 5.5 rebounds, 7.5 assists and 2.7 steals per game. As the reigning Big East Player and Defensive Player of the Year, he has been tabbed as Blue Ribbon’s preseason Player of the Year and if he’s not on your list of preseason All-Americans, you’re simply doing it wrong. While NBA executives were reportedly shocked to see Dunn pull his name from the 2015 NBA Draft, it doesn’t look like it’ll be a decision he winds up regretting.

At 21-years-old, Dunn already has the physical profile of an NBA point guard. He measured 6-4 in shoes with a 6-9 wingspan at the Nike Skills Academy. At 205 pounds, he won’t have to grow into his body like younger prospects.

Dunn’s ability to use his size on the defensive end is one of the many reasons scouts are attracted to him as a potential lottery pick in 2016. He is one of the best on-ball defenders in college basketball, managing to generate a steal on nearly five percent of opponents’ possessions. That number ranked fifth nationally last season, according to KenPom. Dunn moves his feet well, uses angles to cut off passing lanes and his length allows him to pester his man on more routine passes, much like on this entry feed from Devin Booker:

Offensively, Dunn is a playmaker. He’s at his best working with the ball in his hands to either find open space or locate a teammate with impressive precision passing. Dunn led the country last season with an assist rate of 50 percent. He shows good decision-making in the pick and roll as well — a must for an NBA point guard. According to DraftExpress, 36.1 percent of Dunn’s offensive sets involved the pick and roll, so he’s well practiced at locating the roll man:

Or taking the ball to the hoop himself:

Despite the accolades he’s received, Dunn knows he has to get better. “I know, personally, the things I have to work on,” Dunn told CBS Sports‘ Matt Norlander earlier this month. “I felt I need another year to develop those skills. I don’t want to go to the NBA and not be ready. There’s a lot of guys who go there, and their skills aren’t developed. Some players don’t like to admit it, but I can see my flaws.”

Dunn’s most prominent flaw is his turnover rate. He led the NCAA in turnovers last season, giving the ball away 138 times in 33 games. The turnovers come in a variety of ways. Occasionally he finds himself in the air with no clear place for the ball to go. Other times he’ll simply get out of control. And sometimes he’ll be lackadaisical with his passing.

Dunn will need to improve as a shooter at the NBA level, too. Although his mechanics are sound, his percentages don’t suggest that he’ll be a quality shooter. Dunn knocked down nearly 36 percent of his triples last season, but it was over a mere 77 attempts. Using Andrew Johnson’s models, Dunn projects as just a 32.5 percent 3-point shooter in the NBA, due in large part to his poor free throw percentage in college.

This season should give Dunn a large opportunity to showcase more of his game. He’ll no longer have running mate LaDontae Henton on the floor with him, which should cause Dunn to shoulder more of the offensive load. Head coach Ed Cooley has also said this will be the best shooting team he’s had at Providence. If that holds true, Dunn should be able to work more in open space while the shooters space the floor for him similar to what he may be given in the NBA.

On most draft boards, Dunn already projects as a top 10 pick in 2016. It’s unlikely that he’ll rise much higher given his age, but the good news is that being 22 at the time of the draft shouldn’t hinder his development as an NBA point. The league’s starting point guards this season, on average, entered the league at age 21 and Dunn is more skilled than many were at the time they were drafted.