NBA Players to Avoid in Fantasy Basketball Drafts
By Matt Conway
Typically even the biggest fans get caught up in the allure of some of the NBA’s most popular players in Fantasy Basketball drafts, despite the numbers not typically supporting players draft position. Here are a few players in which that trend looks to be the case.
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Kobe Bryant (ESPN Average Draft Position: 63.2)
Kobe Bryant has been one of the best players in basketball for over fifteen years, combining an unflappable sense of confidence with a deadly shooting stroke. At 37 years old though, Bryant is entering the twilight of his career, with rumors of this being his last season in the NBA. While there is an appeal to being apart of the Kobe farewell tour, Fantasy Basketball drafters should use caution.
Bryant just is not a dependable option on the court anymore due to an extensive injury history. From a fractured knee to a torn Achilles’ tendon, Kobe has had a series of setbacks that are hard to come back from at his age. Even if he stays healthy, a crowded backcourt including promising prospects D’Angelo Russell and Jordan Clarkson are likely to limit his minutes.
Players to Look Towards Instead:
Drafters looking for shooting guards in later rounds should not worry. Later round values like Wesley Matthews (ADP: 90.6) and Arron Afflalo (ADP: 93.5) have quite a bit of promise with potentially large roles being available for them. Matthews in particular could be a steal due to many still scared off by his Achilles injury last year, as he is not a player with a lengthy injury history.
Dirk Nowitzki (ADP: 70.0)
“The German Wunderkind” is one of the rare NBA players to be beloved by nearly every fanbase. He’s an incredibly affable guy and has been one of the more versatile frontcourt players in the history of the NBA. Like Kobe however, it seems that Father Time may be catching up to Dirk, with his minute total last year slipping under 30 MPG first time since his rookie year.
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Nowitzki’s efficiency is still impressive, but has already started to slip with his age. The Mavericks as a whole are a lot weaker of a team, with dynamo guard and pick-and-roll partner Monta Ellis leaving in free agency. This season could very much be a lost one for Dirk, as the team could tank this year and rest Dirk, saving him for one last run.
Players to Look Towards Instead:
Even with Boston having a crowded frontcourt, David Lee (85.8) is only a few years from being a consistent All-Star on the Warriors. He is a gifted scorer who could easily notch a double-double average. Other players like Robert Covington (ADP: 96.6) and Julius Randle (ADP: 106.2) are worth a late round flier.
Draymond Green (ADP: 26.0)
Easily the most controversial pick of this list, as Green is viewed as a cornerstone piece on a winning Warriors squad. Green brings fortitude and toughness to a finesse Warriors squad, which was a big part of their championship run. That value however does not translate into fantasy value. He is far more valuable in real life to a team than a fantasy team.
As a scorer, Green is still very much a work in progress. He has started to develop a three point shot, but still is relatively inefficient offensively. On a Warriors team with so many scoring options, Green is likely to be the fourth or fifth guy to go to at a given point in the game, making his ceiling to truly grow very limited. He will be a beast on the boards for sure, but his likely lack of growth offensively makes him a tough sell this high in a draft.
Players to Look Towards Instead:
Green qualifies both as a Small Forward and Power Forward, so a drafter could go in either direction here. Rudy Gay (ADP: 31) is a dangerous scorer who will also contribute a healthy amount of dimes and boards. As far as power forward goes, Kevin Love (ADP: 32.8) may have received several jeers last year on the Cavaliers, but is still a versatile scorer and feisty rebounder.