Breaking down Emmanuel Mudiay’s first four games with the Nuggets

Trading Ty Lawson to the Rockets marked a significant change for the Denver Nuggets. By handing over the reigns of the team from Lawson, a proven player entering his prime, to young Emmanuel Mudiay, a player the Nuggets hope will be bigger and better somewhere down the road, it gave the franchise a fresh start following years of uncertainty.

The trade wasn’t a total hit of the reset button for the Nuggets. They re-signed Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler to long-term extensions in the offseason, both of whom remain integral parts of their rotation. But part of the purpose of the trade was to allow for Mudiay’s uninhibited development by not having him share ball handling duties with another high usage guard. Mudiay, who played overseas in China in the 2014-15 season for the Guangdong Southern Tigers, is now this franchise’s future and a lot of their success rests on his broad shoulders.

Mudiay has taken the floor in four games for the Nuggets this season and the early returns are encouraging. He is averaging 12.5 points, 6.5 assists and 3.3 boards and looked at ease in his debut against Houston on Oct. 28. In that game, fans saw flashes of the elite player that Mudiay could one day become.

For now, though, it’s worth remembering that it is just flashes.

Here is Mudiay’s shot chart from his first four games, via NBA.com. While there are areas of obvious concern — 25 percent at the rim for a 6-5 point guard, for example, isn’t ideal — it’s about what should be expected from any rookie point guard adjusting the size and speed of the NBA game.

One promising sign for Mudiay is his 3-point shooting. Heading into the draft, Mudiay was pegged as a poor shooter, which isn’t the sparkliest of reputations for a point guard in today’s NBA. Defenses haven taken note, too, by going under screens and abandoning him on the wing to snuff out action in the paint.

Mudiay (No. 0 in red on the far left wing) is left all alone by Patrick Beverly on this play, partly due to a defensive breakdown by the Rockets that forced Beverly to cover the paint. Nonetheless, Beverly is a smart defender who is comfortable leaving the rookie open on the wing. Mudiay makes him pay, canning the 24-foot catch-and-shoot 3-pointer.

Mudiay is shooting 80 percent (small sample size alert) on catch-and-shoot jumpers and 47.1 percent from 3-point range early this season. Even accounting for the certain regression that will come as Mudiay puts more shots up, that’s a great sign for the Nuggets — defenders may not be able to sag off Mudiay as much going forward.

Where Mudiay is struggling, however, is on pull-up jumpers. His field goal percentage on those shots through four games stands at a a paltry 22.6 percent, which should concern you most about his game. Against poor, lazy defense by the Lakers, for example, Mudiay settles for a wide open jumper that hits the back iron. I’d like to see him attack the basket rather than settling for a jumper when the lane is that wide open.

Defenses will continue to give Mudiay that treatment — going under screens, daring him to shoot — until he proves that he is a reliable threat off the dribble in the pick-and-roll game. Those pick-and-rolls are where guards make their money in the NBA, and Mudiay is still very much adjusting to executing the art form.

Mudiay dribbles himself into trouble on this play and is a step slow making the correct pass to the rolling big man. Instead of a crisp pass, Mudiay jumps into the air and turns the ball over in the process, leading to a fast break opportunity for the Rockets.

The turnovers from pick-and-rolls aren’t too concerning this early on, however. As Mudiay continues to develop a feel for the pro-game, his playmaking will shine through more and more. He’s proven the ability to get into the paint and make the right reads depending on the coverage, like he did here against the Rockets:

Mudiay does an excellent job of attracting the defense with slow dribbles and shows excellent court vision and execution to find the open man in the corner. That’s a high level play even for an NBA guard to make, and that’s what Nuggets fans are looking for from the young point guard. Expect him to show more of those kinds of plays going forward this season.