Blue Jays extend qualifying offer to Marco Estrada
The Toronto Blue Jays were happy with the work they got out of Marco Estrada last season and aren’t prepared to let him leave for free.
When the Toronto Blue Jays acquired Marco Estrada for Adam Lind last November, there was some question as to where he’d fit in. After all, Estrada had paced all of baseball in home runs allowed in 2014 and welcoming him to a hitters ballpark like Rogers Centre was a recipe for disaster.
It’s safe the say the recipe was a bit sweeter tasting than anticipated.
After starting the season in the bullpen, Estrada made the move to the rotation on May 5th and quickly became one of the more consistent arms on the staff in 2015. Over the course of 34 games (28 starts), the right-hander used his mixture of off-speed pitches and control to post a 13-8 record, a 3.13 ERA, and a 6.5 K/9 mark in 181 innings of work.
That performance certainly turned some heads and the club would love to have him back in the fold for 2016. However, with Estrada due to be a free agent and likely draw some interest, the Blue Jays are taking no chances. The team extended Estrada a qualifying offer on Friday, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.
#BlueJays extend qualifying offer of $15.8 million to Marco Estrada
— Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) November 6, 2015
That’s a big risk for the Blue Jays, as Estrada’s services cost the team only $3.9 million during his final year of arbitration. However, FanGraphs pegs his 2015 value as close to $14.6 million, showing the Blue Jays received a solid return on investment and that the potential of a $15.8 million deal for Estrada not being a tremendous risk.
Of course, that means that the right-hander would have to accept the offer, which has yet to be done under the new collective bargaining agreement. Instead, he will likely decline it and hope to sign a multi-year deal elsewhere. The caveat to that is that if he does, the signing team will have to surrender a draft pick, allowing the Blue Jays to recoup one in the sandwich round between the first and second rounds.
That may make it difficult for Estrada to find the deal he truly wants. Teams are going to hesitant to commit years and dollars to a player that may have benefited more from luck than skill. Given that he produced a 4.40 FIP and 4.64 SIERA, the ERA may be an outlier and Estrada could be destined to return to his career norms.
Still, given the high number of top tier pitchers on the market, Estrada could benefit as a tier two or three choice for a team looking to get by with a cheaper commitment, albeit one willing to part with a draft choice.